In Conversation: Unveiling the Science Behind Contrail Avoidance

Rhea-AI Summary

Marc Shapiro, Director of Breakthrough Energy's Contrails team, discusses the science behind contrail avoidance strategies and their impact on aviation's climate effects. He explains that while CO2 has a weak, long-term warming effect, contrails have a strong, short-term impact, with persistent nighttime contrails being the most significant. Predicting contrail formation involves using physics, meteorology, and observational techniques.

Shapiro highlights challenges in predicting ice supersaturation conditions and the need for fine-scale atmospheric modeling. The team's model predicts contrail formation probability and severity. While contrail avoidance might increase CO2 emissions, models suggest only a few flights would be affected, resulting in a net climate benefit. American Airlines' (AAL) role in conducting trials is important for advancing research and validating the model.

Positive

• American Airlines (AAL) is actively participating in contrail avoidance research trials, demonstrating environmental leadership
• The contrail avoidance model suggests only a few flights would be affected, potentially minimizing operational disruptions
• Contrail avoidance strategies could result in a net climate benefit even over 100 years, despite potential increases in CO2 emissions

Negative

• Implementing contrail avoidance strategies may lead to increased fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
• There is currently no mechanism to share the increased operational costs associated with contrail avoidance

Marc Shapiro from Breakthrough Energy Discusses the Impact, Challenges, and American Airlines' Role in Mitigating Aviation's Climate Effects

Originally published in American Airlines' 2023 Sustainability Report

NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESSWIRE / September 4, 2024 / Marc Shapiro is the Director of the Breakthrough Energy Contrails team, one of American's partners on contrail avoidance. Below, he answers our questions on the science behind contrail avoidance strategies, as well as some of the challenges in their implementation.

Prior to joining Breakthrough Energy, Marc worked as an applied scientist and entrepreneur in a diverse set of research and development efforts across fluid mechanics, geospatial analytics and mobile healthcare. In 2020, he started a company to develop geospatial data systems for climate mitigation and adaptation before transitioning to his current work. Marc earned a Master of Science degree in Fluids and Thermal Sciences from Brown University and a Bachelor of Engineering from Dartmouth College.

Marc, how would you compare the warming impact of contrails versus CO₂ ?

It's hard to compare them precisely, but CO₂ is weakly warming over a long period of time, while contrails are strongly warming over a short period. But not all contrails have the same warming effect. Persistent contrails at night clearly impact the climate the most. By being more precise in our interventions and focusing on those, we have the greatest opportunity to make a difference.

How can we predict where warming contrails will occur?

There are fundamentally two ways to go about this. One involves using physics and meteorology to predict regions or volumes of air that should be avoided. The other uses observational techniques on the ground and from satellites to see where aircraft are actually forming contrails. In our work towards solving this problem, we need both.

What are the scientific challenges?

The type of atmospheric condition that creates persistent contrails is called ice supersaturation, which is a fancy way of saying the temperature is really cold and the humidity is high. Predicting that state is something that models have a hard time doing today. Another challenge is predicting these atmospheric states on as fine a scale as you need. Weather forecasts generally correspond to a grid, say, 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. In that grid, you might have multiple fluctuations of supersaturation states. So, the model resolves to the average and it's wrong sometimes.

Is there an easy way to describe your model?

Think of it like a weather forecast. We predict the probability that a contrail will form and an estimate of that contrail's severity. The first part indicates how likely it is that an aircraft will form a persistent contrail in a particular area. The second part tells us that if we found a contrail in that area, it would likely have a particular persistence and impact on the climate.

Avoiding a contrail might also result in greater CO₂ emissions. How should we look at the trade-off?

There is a cost in added fuel and CO₂ that potentially gets added to the atmosphere as a result of avoidance maneuvers. Our models are telling us, though, only a few flights will be affected, and avoidance still results in a net climate benefit even over 100 years. We could reduce these added emissions if airlines had access to SAF. But from an operating standpoint, there's a cost to the airline business in terms of greater fuel use, and no mechanism exists to share that cost right now.

How do you see American's role in helping advance the solution?

The airlines are essentially on the front line of solving this problem because you are the ones that would implement the solution. So, what American is doing in helping us run trials is truly critical to advancing the research. The biggest hurdle to get through right now is not model development. It's having the chance to really test and validate the model. Additionally, having a major airline working on this issue is a valuable signal that it's important.

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SOURCE: American Airlines

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FAQ

What is the warming impact of contrails compared to CO2 emissions for American Airlines (AAL)?

According to Marc Shapiro, contrails have a strong, short-term warming impact, while CO2 has a weak, long-term effect. Persistent nighttime contrails have the most significant climate impact for airlines like American Airlines (AAL).

How is American Airlines (AAL) contributing to contrail avoidance research?

American Airlines (AAL) is playing a important role in advancing contrail avoidance research by conducting trials to test and validate the contrail prediction model developed by Breakthrough Energy's Contrails team.

What are the challenges in implementing contrail avoidance strategies for American Airlines (AAL)?

The main challenges include accurately predicting ice supersaturation conditions, developing fine-scale atmospheric modeling, and balancing the potential increase in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions with the climate benefits of avoiding contrails.

How might contrail avoidance affect American Airlines' (AAL) operations and costs?

Contrail avoidance strategies could lead to increased fuel use and operational costs for American Airlines (AAL). However, the model suggests only a few flights would be affected, potentially minimizing disruptions while still providing a net climate benefit.