Arcadium Lithium's 2024 Investor Day Highlights Company's Strategic Vision and Pathway to Significant Growth

Rhea-AI Summary

Arcadium Lithium (NYSE: ALTM, ASX: LTM) provided strategic updates at its 2024 Investor Day, highlighting its growth plans and financial outlook. The company aims to more than double its total sales volumes by 2028 across multiple products and regions. Arcadium Lithium outlined a path to Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion by 2028, supported by a strong balance sheet with peak net leverage of 2.1x.

The company is accelerating its plan to deliver $125 million in merger-related cost savings, expecting to achieve this target roughly two years ahead of schedule. Arcadium Lithium also announced a Memorandum of Understanding with Toyota Tsusho, which could lead to further synergies and optimization of its global integrated operating network.

The company expects 25% higher combined lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide volumes in 2024 and 2025 from completed expansion projects. It also outlined two waves of expansions across its assets in Argentina and Canada, with the potential to increase production capacity beyond 2028 by an additional 125,000 to 295,000 metric tons (LCE).

Positive

• Projected doubling of total sales volumes by 2028
• Expected Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion by 2028
• Accelerated delivery of $125 million in merger-related cost savings
• 25% higher lithium carbonate and hydroxide volumes expected in 2024 and 2025
• Potential to increase production capacity by 125,000 to 295,000 metric tons (LCE) beyond 2028
• MoU with Toyota Tsusho for potential synergies and network optimization

Negative

• Peak net leverage expected to reach 2.1x

Insights

Financial Analyst

Arcadium Lithium's investor day presentation reveals a robust growth strategy with significant financial implications. The company's plan to double sales volumes by 2028 and reach an Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion is ambitious but supported by tangible expansion projects. The accelerated $125 million in merger-related cost savings by 2025 demonstrates effective synergy realization.

The MoU with Toyota Tsusho could optimize operations and potentially boost earnings as early as 2026. However, investors should note that the projected $1.3 billion Adjusted EBITDA relies on analyst consensus pricing forecasts, which introduces some uncertainty. The company's peak net leverage of 2.1x suggests a manageable debt level, but careful monitoring of capital expenditures and market conditions will be crucial.

Market Research Analyst

Arcadium Lithium's strategic update reflects a bullish outlook on lithium demand. The company's planned capacity expansions align with projected growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets. The two-wave expansion strategy provides flexibility to adjust to market conditions, with potential for up to 295,000 metric tons LCE total production capacity beyond 2028.

The 25% volume increase expected in 2024-2025 from completed projects indicates near-term growth. However, the reliance on "consensus expectations for pricing to move higher" to achieve financial targets introduces market risk. The diversified asset portfolio and vertical integration strategy could provide a competitive advantage in navigating market volatility, but investors should remain cautious of potential oversupply scenarios in the lithium market.

Tech Expert

Arcadium Lithium's focus on vertical integration and a broad range of high-performance lithium products positions it well in the evolving battery technology landscape. The company's ability to produce both lithium carbonate and hydroxide allows flexibility to meet changing customer demands as battery chemistries evolve.

The MoU with Toyota Tsusho could enhance operational efficiency by optimizing product flow between facilities. This strategic move may allow Arcadium to better serve diverse customer needs across different battery technologies. However, the success of this strategy will depend on the company's ability to stay ahead of technological shifts in battery composition and maintain product quality across its expanding production network.

PHILADELPHIA and PERTH, Australia, Sept. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ --

• Underscores unique position as a vertically integrated, diversified global producer of lithium chemicals with low-cost and high-quality assets
• Details ongoing expansion programs expected to more than double total sales volumes by 2028 across multiple products and regions
• Outlines path to Adjusted EBITDA¹ of $1.3 billion by 2028 supported by strong and flexible balance sheet with peak net leverage of 2.1x^1,2
• Reaffirms significant expansion potential of one of the largest and most diverse resource bases in the industry
• Accelerating plan to deliver $125 million of merger-related cost savings roughly two years ahead of initial target
• Executed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Toyota Tsusho in key step to unlocking further synergies

Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE: ALTM, ASX: LTM, "Arcadium Lithium" or the "Company"), a leading global lithium chemicals producer, today provided a number of strategic updates at its inaugural 2024 Investor Day.  During the event, the Company reviewed its operating, commercial and growth strategies while reinforcing its commitment to sustainability leadership.  The Company also discussed its plans for disciplined volume expansion and provided a long-term financial view.

"We have a clear and compelling plan to deliver significant growth over the coming years, leveraging the size and quality of our portfolio of assets and expansion projects," said Arcadium Lithium president and chief executive officer Paul Graves. "Our vertically integrated operating network, broad range of high-performance lithium products, and deep technical know-how allow us to maximize the value of each unit of lithium we deliver to customers. This is complemented by a disciplined commercial strategy that provides greater visibility and profitability throughout market cycles and allows us to confidently invest to meet the growing long-term demand needs of our customers. This plan has the potential to double our sales volumes by 2028 while reaching an expected $1.3 billion in Adjusted EBITDA based on analyst consensus pricing forecasts. I am excited by the opportunities ahead and the highly experienced team we have in place to execute our long-term vision." 

Multi-Year Volume Growth
Arcadium Lithium expects 25% higher combined lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide volumes in 2024 and 2025 from expansion projects at Fénix and Olaroz that have already been completed, are in operation and have no further capital requirements. Beyond this, the Company continues to develop its world class portfolio of resources and is doing so on a timeline supported by the market and its customers.

Arcadium Lithium outlined two waves of expansions across its large, high-quality and low-cost assets in Argentina and Canada.  The first wave of four existing projects at various stages of advancement is expected to be fully completed, in stages, by 2028 and more than double sales volumes from today.

The second wave of projects are at the development and planning stage and this wave offers the Company the opportunity to increase production capacity beyond 2028 by a further 125,000 metric tons (LCE³) to 295,000 metric tons (LCE³) total. The size and quality of Arcadium Lithium's portfolio of resources means it is not constrained in its ability to continue to grow organically. 

Earnings Growth Supported by Flexible Balance Sheet
Arcadium Lithium outlined a path to an expected $1.3 billion in Adjusted EBITDA¹ by 2028, subject to certain assumptions, with margins continuing to be supported by low-cost positions and multi-year customer agreements. This growth is underpinned by higher volumes from expansion, and by consensus expectations for pricing to move higher than current levels towards prices that are needed to incentivize industry supply growth⁴. It is supported by a strong balance sheet, with peak net leverage not expected to exceed 2.1x^1,2. The Company believes it has attractive internal and external funding alternatives that provide flexibility to promptly adapt to evolving market conditions as needed.   

Accelerating Cost Savings
Since the January 2024 merger of Allkem and Livent creating Arcadium Lithium, the Company has taken actions to drive cost reductions throughout the organization. The benefits of these actions are already being seen, with post-merger cost savings coming in higher and quicker than initial forecasts. 

Beyond expected cost savings of up to $80 million in 2024, the Company now expects to deliver close to its initial run-rate savings target of $125 million by the end of 2025, roughly two years ahead of plan. These savings are driven primarily by organizational restructuring, operational and supply chain synergies and a reduction in third-party and other services across the two legacy companies. The Company also believes the total longer-term savings opportunity to be greater than $125 million.   

Toyota Tsusho Memorandum of Understanding
Arcadium Lithium announced the recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with its long-time partner Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TTC), a key initial step in providing greater flexibility for Arcadium Lithium to optimize its global integrated operating network and to contribute its production expertise to Naraha.  This includes using technical grade lithium carbonate produced at Olaroz to feed the Company's existing downstream lithium hydroxide network, thus allowing more battery grade lithium carbonate produced at Fénix to be sold directly to customers.  This is expected to have a positive impact on the Company's earnings and to be achievable as early as 2026.

Event Replay Information
A full replay of Arcadium Lithium's Investor Day is available on the Company's Investor Relations website.  For further details and access to the webcast replay and presentation materials, visit ir.arcadiumlithium.com.

1. Denotes non-GAAP financial term. Although Arcadium Lithium provides estimates, the Company is not able to do so for the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Certain elements of the composition of the GAAP amount are not predictable, making it impractical for the Company to provide an outlook for such GAAP measure or to reconcile corresponding non-GAAP financial measure to such GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts.  For the same reason, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information. As a result, no GAAP equivalent outlook is provided for these metrics.
2. Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA. Debt includes amounts outstanding under revolving credit facility, project loan facilities and convertible notes and excludes customer prepayment obligations and affiliate loans. Cash excludes Nemaska Lithium.
3. Lithium Carbonate Equivalents.
4. Based on consensus price expectations using analyst research as of 9/11/2024.

Arcadium Lithium Contacts

Investors:
Daniel Rosen +1 215 299 6208
daniel.rosen@arcadiumlithium.com  

Phoebe Lee +61 413 557 780
phoebe.lee@arcadiumlithium.com   

Media:
Karen Vizental +54 9 114 414 4702
karen.vizental@arcadiumlithium.com  

Supplemental Information In this press release, Arcadium Lithium uses the financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Debt.  These terms are not calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).  Definitions of these terms, as well as a reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, are provided on our website: ir.arcadiumlithium.com and elsewhere in this press release or the financial tables that accompany this press release.

About Arcadium Lithium 
Arcadium Lithium is a leading global lithium chemicals producer committed to safely and responsibly harnessing the power of lithium to improve people's lives and accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.  We collaborate with our customers to drive innovation and power a more sustainable world in which lithium enables exciting possibilities for renewable energy, electric transportation and modern life. Arcadium Lithium is vertically integrated, with industry-leading capabilities across lithium extraction processes, including hard-rock mining, conventional brine extraction and direct lithium extraction (DLE), and in lithium chemicals manufacturing for high performance applications.  We have operations around the world, with facilities and projects in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.  For more information, please visit us at www.ArcadiumLithium.com.

Important Information and Legal Disclaimer:
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Certain statements in this news release are forward-looking statements. In some cases, we have identified forward-looking statements by such words or phrases as "will likely result," "is confident that," "expect," "expects," "should," "could," "may," "will continue to," "believe," "believes," "anticipates," "predicts," "forecasts," "estimates," "projects," "potential," "intends" or similar expressions identifying "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the negative of those words and phrases. Such forward-looking statements are based on our current views and assumptions regarding future events, future business conditions and the outlook for Arcadium Lithium based on currently available information. There are important factors that could cause Arcadium Lithium's actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to differ materially from the results, level of activity, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including a failure to reach a binding agreement with TTC pursuant to the MoU, the supply and demand in the market for our products as well as pricing for lithium and high-performance lithium compounds; our ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the integration of the businesses of Livent and Allkem or of any future acquisitions; our ability to acquire or develop additional reserves that are economically viable; the existence, availability and profitability of mineral resources and mineral and ore reserves; the success of our production expansion efforts, research and development efforts and the development of our facilities; our ability to retain existing customers; the competition that we face in our business; the development and adoption of new battery technologies; additional funding or capital that may be required for our operations and expansion plans; political, financial and operational risks that our lithium extraction and production operations, particularly in Argentina, expose us to; physical and other risks that our operations and suppliers are subject to; our ability to satisfy customer qualification processes or customer or government quality standards; global economic conditions, including inflation, fluctuations in the price of energy and certain raw materials; the ability of our joint ventures, affiliated entities and contract manufacturers to operate according to their business plans and to fulfill their obligations; severe weather events and the effects of climate change; extensive and dynamic environmental and other laws and regulations; our ability to obtain and comply with required licenses, permits and other approvals; and other factors described under the caption entitled "Risk Factors" in Arcadium Lithium's 2023 Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on February 29, 2024, as well as Arcadium Lithium's other SEC filings and public communications. Although Arcadium Lithium believes the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, Arcadium Lithium cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. Moreover, neither Arcadium Lithium nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any of these forward-looking statements. Arcadium Lithium is under no duty to update any of these forward-looking statements after the date of this news release to conform its prior statements to actual results or revised expectations. 

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SOURCE Arcadium Lithium PLC

FAQ

What is Arcadium Lithium's projected Adjusted EBITDA for 2028?

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) outlined a path to an expected Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion by 2028, subject to certain assumptions and supported by higher volumes from expansion and consensus expectations for pricing.

How much is Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) expecting to increase its lithium production volumes by 2028?

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) expects to more than double its total sales volumes by 2028 across multiple products and regions, with a 25% increase in combined lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide volumes expected in 2024 and 2025.

What cost savings is Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) targeting from its merger?

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) is accelerating its plan to deliver $125 million in merger-related cost savings, expecting to achieve this target roughly two years ahead of the initial schedule.

What is the significance of Arcadium Lithium's MoU with Toyota Tsusho?

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Toyota Tsusho is a key step for Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) to unlock further synergies, optimize its global integrated operating network, and potentially improve earnings as early as 2026.