Alpha Issues 2026 Guidance Expectations

Rhea-AI Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE: AMR) issued 2026 operational guidance on Dec 12, 2025 covering volumes, per‑ton costs, operating expenses, capital spending and balance-sheet items.

Key metrics: total shipments of 15.1–16.5 million tons, cost of coal sales of $95.00–$101.00/ton (Section 45X impact included), capex of $148–$168 million (includes Kingston Wildcat development), DD&A of $160–$174 million, SG&A of $53–$59 million, and cash tax rate of 0–5%.

Positive

• Total shipments guidance: 15.1–16.5 million tons
• Capex $148–$168M includes Kingston Wildcat development
• Cost guidance incorporates Section 45X advanced manufacturing credit
• DD&A forecasted at $160–$174M (explicit depreciation planning)

Negative

• Cost of coal sales guidance: $95.00–$101.00 per ton
• SG&A expected at $53–$59M, raising fixed expenses
• Idle operations expense budgeted at $24–$32M
• Capital contributions to equity affiliates: $35–$45M cash

Key Figures

2026 met sales volume 14.4–15.4 million tons 2026 guidance range for metallurgical coal shipments

2026 thermal volume 0.7–1.1 million tons 2026 guidance range for incidental thermal coal

Total 2026 shipments 15.1–16.5 million tons Combined metallurgical and thermal coal guidance

Cost of coal sales $95.00–$101.00 per ton 2026 met segment cost guidance including Section 45X impact

SG&A expense $53–$59 million 2026 guidance excluding non-recurring and stock comp

Capital expenditures $148–$168 million 2026 capex including Kingston Wildcat mine completion

DD&A $160–$174 million 2026 depreciation, depletion and amortization guidance

Cash tax rate 0%–5% Expected 2026 cash tax rate range

Market Reality Check

$185.03 Last Close

Volume Volume 344,359 is above the 20-day average of 255,724, indicating elevated interest into the guidance release. normal

Technical Shares at 189.93 are trading above the 200-day MA of 137.99 and about 20% below the 52-week high of 237.84.

Peers on Argus

AMR gained 6.14% as 2026 guidance was released. Several coal peers also traded higher, with moves such as AREC +7.57%, METCB +5.8%, HCC +5.37%, SXC +3.55%, and METC +1.43%, suggesting broader strength in related names even though the momentum scanner did not flag a sector-wide move.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Nov 25	Sales commitments	Positive	+1.1%	Announced 3.6M tons of 2026 domestic metallurgical coal sales commitments.
Nov 13	Safety incident	Negative	-6.2%	Reported fatality following flooding incident at Rolling Thunder Mine in W. Va.
Nov 06	Q3 2025 earnings	Negative	-1.6%	Q3 2025 results showed net loss with pressured met pricing and volumes.
Oct 01	Earnings date notice	Neutral	+5.9%	Announced timing and call details for upcoming Q3 2025 results release.
Aug 26	Safety incident	Negative	+0.5%	Disclosed fatal accident involving mine electrician at Marfork Preparation Plant.

Pattern Detected

Recent news reactions show three aligned moves (positive on commercial/operational updates, negative on accidents/weak results) and two divergences where the stock rose on neutral or negative headlines.

Recent Company History

Over the last six months, Alpha’s news has covered commercial progress, operational setbacks, and weaker quarterly results. A November 2025 update on 3.6M tons of 2026 domestic commitments saw a modest positive reaction, while two separate fatal mine accidents in August and November 2025 weighed on sentiment. Q3 2025 earnings showed a net loss and pressured met pricing. Against this backdrop, today’s 2026 guidance further details volumes, costs, and capital plans after the earlier outlook update.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement lays out Alpha’s 2026 roadmap, including 15.1–16.5 million tons of total shipments, cost guidance of $95–$101 per ton, and capex of $148–$168 million that funds the Kingston Wildcat mine. Compared with prior updates on 2026 commitments and softer recent results, the guidance adds clarity on volumes, spending, and taxes. Investors may watch actual pricing, execution on mine development, and safety performance against these targets.

Key Terms

Section 45X credit regulatory

"The estimated impact of the Section 45X credit (also known as the..."

A section 45X credit is a government production tax incentive that pays manufacturers a set amount for each qualifying clean-energy component or advanced technology item they make domestically. For investors, it’s like a per-unit bonus that can meaningfully raise a factory’s revenue and improve profit margins, making companies that qualify more valuable and lowering the effective cost of building clean-energy supply chains.

advanced manufacturing production credit regulatory

"Section 45X credit (also known as the advanced manufacturing production credit)..."

A government tax incentive that pays companies by the amount they produce of certain qualifying advanced products—often clean-energy components or high-tech parts—to encourage domestic manufacturing. For investors, it can raise a maker’s profit per unit and improve cash flow like a per-item rebate, making manufacturers more competitive and potentially boosting valuation, but its value depends on meeting eligibility rules and on future policy changes.

SG&A financial

"Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs are expected to be..."

SG&A stands for Selling, General, and Administrative expenses. It includes the costs a company spends on selling products, running the business day-to-day, and managing staff, like advertising, rent, and salaries. These expenses matter because they affect how much profit a company can make from its sales.

forward-looking statements regulatory

"For more information, visit www.AlphaMetResources.com. Forward-Looking Statements"

Forward-looking statements are predictions or plans that companies share about what they expect to happen in the future, like estimating sales or profits. They matter because they help investors understand a company's outlook, but since they are based on guesses and assumptions, they can sometimes be wrong.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

BRISTOL, Tenn., Dec. 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR), a leading U.S. supplier of metallurgical products for the steel industry, today issued guidance expectations for the 2026 calendar year.

"Upon completion of Alpha's budgeting process for the coming year, we are communicating our guidance expectations for 2026," said Andy Eidson, Alpha's chief executive officer. "While market conditions continue to appear challenging in the immediate term, we are looking ahead and finding ways to best position ourselves for strength when steel demand returns and markets improve. Alpha's 2026 guidance reflects our priorities of continuing focus on Safe Production, maintaining a close eye on efficiency and cost containment, as well as investing in the completion of our Kingston Wildcat low vol mine that will positively impact our portfolio's quality mix."

Issuance of 2026 Operational Guidance

For 2026 sales volumes, Alpha expects to ship between 14.4 million and 15.4 million metallurgical tons and an additional 0.7 million to 1.1 million tons of incidental thermal coal, for a total range of 15.1 million to 16.5 million tons for the year.

The company expects its cost of coal sales to be between $95.00 and $101.00 per ton next year. The estimated impact of the Section 45X credit (also known as the advanced manufacturing production credit) is inherent in the cost of coal sales per ton guidance.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million, excluding non-recurring expenses and non-cash stock compensation. We anticipate idle operations expense to be between $24 million and $32 million. The range for net cash interest income is expected to be $2 million to $6 million, while the range for depreciation, depletion and amortization is forecast to be $160 million to $174 million.

Alpha is planning for capital expenditures between $148 million to $168 million in 2026, which includes sustaining maintenance capital as well as development capital for the completion of the Kingston Wildcat mine.

Contributions to equity affiliates are expected in the range of $35 million to $45 million, which includes both cash contributions for normal operations of Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA) as well as Alpha's share of the 2026 planned investments in DTA's facility upgrade program.

The company expects a 2026 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.

	2026 Guidance
in millions of tons	Low	High
Metallurgical	14.4	15.4
Thermal	0.7	1.1
Met Segment - Total Shipments	15.1	16.5
Committed/Priced1,2,3	Committed	Average Price
Metallurgical - Domestic		$136.75
Metallurgical - Export
Metallurgical Total	24 %	$136.75
Thermal	68 %	$76.25
Met Segment	27 %	$128.16
Committed/Unpriced1,3	Committed
Metallurgical Total	40 %
Thermal	— %
Met Segment	38 %
Costs per ton4	Low	High
Met Segment	$95.00	$101.00
In millions (except taxes)	Low	High
SG&A5	$53	$59
Idle Operations Expense	$24	$32
Net Cash Interest Income	$2	$6
DD&A	$160	$174
Capital Expenditures	$148	$168
Capital Contributions to Equity Affiliates6	$35	$45
Cash Tax Rate	0 %	5 %

Notes:           

1. Based on committed and priced coal shipments as of December 8, 2025. Committed percentage based on the midpoint of shipment guidance range.
2. Actual average per-ton realizations on committed and priced tons recognized in future periods may vary based on actual freight expense in future periods relative to assumed freight expense embedded in projected average per-ton realizations.
3. Includes estimates of future coal shipments based upon contract terms and anticipated delivery schedules. Actual coal shipments may vary from these estimates.
4. Note: The Company is unable to present a quantitative reconciliation of its forward-looking non-GAAP cost of coal sales per ton sold financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures without unreasonable efforts due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying with reasonable accuracy significant items required for the reconciliation. The most directly comparable GAAP measure, GAAP cost of sales, is not accessible without unreasonable efforts on a forward-looking basis. The reconciling items include freight and handling costs, which are a component of GAAP cost of sales. Management is unable to predict without unreasonable efforts freight and handling costs due to uncertainty as to the end market and FOB point for uncommitted sales volumes and the final shipping point for export shipments. These amounts have varied historically and may continue to vary significantly from quarter to quarter and material changes to these items could have a significant effect on our future GAAP results.
5. Excludes expenses related to non-cash stock compensation and non-recurring expenses.
6. Includes contributions to fund normal operations at our DTA export facility and expected capital investments related to the facility upgrades.

About Alpha Metallurgical Resources

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE: AMR) is a Tennessee-based mining company with operations across Virginia and West Virginia. With customers across the globe, high-quality reserves and significant port capacity, Alpha reliably supplies metallurgical products to the steel industry. For more information, visit www.AlphaMetResources.com. 

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on Alpha's expectations and beliefs concerning future events and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These factors are difficult to predict accurately and may be beyond Alpha's control. Forward-looking statements in this news release or elsewhere speak only as of the date made. New uncertainties and risks arise from time to time, and it is impossible for Alpha to predict these events or how they may affect Alpha. Except as required by law, Alpha has no duty to, and does not intend to, update or revise the forward-looking statements in this news release or elsewhere after the date this release is issued. In light of these risks and uncertainties, investors should keep in mind that results, events or developments discussed in any forward-looking statement made in this news release may not occur. See Alpha's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for more information.

INVESTOR & MEDIA CONTACT: EMILY O'QUINN
InvestorRelations@AlphaMetResources.com
CorporateCommunications@AlphaMetResources.com
(423) 573-0369

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SOURCE ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC.

FAQ

What shipment volumes did Alpha (AMR) guide for 2026 on Dec 12, 2025?

Alpha guided 15.1–16.5 million total tons for 2026, split into metallurgical and thermal ranges.

What cost of coal sales per ton did AMR project for 2026?

AMR forecasted $95.00–$101.00 per ton for cost of coal sales in 2026, with Section 45X effects included.

How much did Alpha (AMR) plan to spend on capital expenditures in 2026?

Alpha expects $148–$168 million of capital expenditures in 2026, including development of Kingston Wildcat.

What SG&A and idle costs did AMR include in 2026 guidance?

SG&A is projected at $53–$59 million and idle operations expense at $24–$32 million.

What cash tax rate did Alpha (AMR) estimate for 2026?

Alpha estimated a 2026 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.

How much cash will Alpha (AMR) contribute to equity affiliates in 2026?

Alpha expects capital contributions to equity affiliates of $35–$45 million in 2026.