Aemetis Stock Price, News & Analysis

Aemetis stands to benefit from the EPA's recent approval of 15% ethanol blend (E15) fuel sales nationwide after May 1st. This decision could potentially increase the U.S. ethanol market by up to 50%, up from the current 10.4% average blend and 14.2 billion gallons in 2024.

The EPA's waiver applies throughout the United States, except California, with consumers expected to save up to $0.20 per gallon at the pump. In California specifically, adopting E15 could create over 600 million gallons of new biofuels demand and save consumers approximately $2.7 billion annually.

A bipartisan Senate Bill 2707, the "Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act," has been introduced by 14 senators to make year-round E15 sales permanent nationwide. The EPA confirms E15 is approved for over 95% of vehicles currently on the road, promising benefits including lower fuel costs, reduced carbon emissions, stronger rural economies, and enhanced energy independence.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) announced that its Indian subsidiary, Universal Biofuels, has begun shipping biodiesel to fulfill orders worth $31 million from government-owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). The orders cover 33,000 kiloliters for delivery during May-July 2025.

The shipments support India's goal of increasing biodiesel blend from 1% to 5%, representing a potential market of 1.2 billion gallons. Universal Biofuels completed $112 million in biodiesel and glycerin shipments in the twelve months ended September 2024. The company recently expanded its annual production capacity from 60 million to 80 million gallons and plans further expansion and diversification into biogas production.

Universal Biofuels, one of India's largest biodiesel producers, is preparing for a planned Initial Public Offering (IPO), subject to favorable market conditions.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) announced that U.S. Consul General Jennifer Larson visited their subsidiary Universal Biofuels facility in Kakinada, India. The plant, which recently increased its annual biodiesel production capacity from 60 to 80 million gallons, is one of India's largest biodiesel producers.

The visit focused on understanding India's biofuels policies and their impact on renewable fuels production. India aims to increase biodiesel blend from 1% to 5% as part of its National Policy on Biofuels. Universal Biofuels completed $112 million in biodiesel and glycerin shipments in the twelve months ended September 2024.

The company is preparing for an IPO in India, targeted for late 2025 or first half of 2026, subject to market conditions. Universal Biofuels plans further biodiesel expansion to other locations and diversification into biogas production in the next twelve months.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) announced that its Indian subsidiary, Universal Biofuels, secured $31 million in biodiesel orders from government-owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) for delivery during May-July 2025. The orders comprise over 33,000 kiloliters of biodiesel, supporting India's goal to increase biodiesel blend from 1% to 5%.

Universal Biofuels recently expanded its Kakinada plant capacity from 50 to 80 million gallons per year, implementing a proprietary process for lower-carbon biofuels production from waste and byproducts. The company completed $112 million in biodiesel and glycerine shipments in the twelve months ended September 2024.

Universal Biofuels is preparing for an IPO in India, expected in late 2025, subject to market conditions. The company plans further biodiesel expansion and diversification into biogas production in 2025.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported a significant 55% increase in renewable natural gas (RNG) production in March compared to February, attributed to warmer weather improving microbial activity. The company completed sales of LCFS credits and D3 RINs at Q1's end.

The company is finalizing LCFS pathway approvals for seven dairy digesters by CARB, expected by Q2 end, potentially generating $6 million yearly in increased revenues. Additionally, CARB's November 2024 LCFS amendments could increase LCFS credit prices, potentially generating up to 300% more total LCFS revenue per MMBtu of RNG.

Aemetis is constructing digesters for four additional dairies, expected to be operational in the coming months. The company's Central Dairy Digester Project, involving 50 dairies near Modesto, California, is projected to generate 1.65 million MMBtu of dairy RNG annually when completed.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported significant growth in FY24, with revenues increasing 43% to $268.0 million from $187.0 million in FY23. The company posted a net loss of $87.5 million, primarily due to interest expenses.

Key operational highlights include doubled RNG capacity and a 55% growth in ethanol revenue, driven by sustainability investments. The India Biofuels segment showed strong performance with a 20% revenue increase and 50% production growth, alongside ongoing IPO plans.

The company ended Q4 2024 with $0.898 million in cash, expecting a higher cash position in Q1 2025 following the sale of $16.8 million in transferable investment tax credits in February 2025. Regulatory support through LCFS, E15, and 45Q/45Z credits are identified as potential growth catalysts.

Aemetis (NASDAQ: AMTX) has received IRS approval for Section 45Z Production Tax Credits (PTCs) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), applicable from January 1, 2025. The company’s ethanol and renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities are now registered as producers of clean transportation fuel. The 45Z PTC incentivizes the production of low carbon intensity fuels, providing a tax credit of $1.00 per gallon for every 50 carbon intensity points reduction below positive 50 carbon intensity.

Aemetis' RNG production is expected to increase by 80% to 550,000 MMBtu annually in 2025, generating significant revenues from tax credits. The company's biogas projects, utilizing dairy waste, are projected to yield substantial tax credit revenues due to their negative carbon intensity. Aemetis’ digesters, funded by USDA loans, will produce an estimated 1.6 million MMBtu of RNG per year when fully operational, with expected annual revenues of $250 million.

Aemetis (AMTX) has released its Q3 2024 performance and future outlook. The company reported revenues of $81 million, marking a 19% increase compared to Q3 2023. The Keyes Ethanol Plant contributed $45 million in revenue, producing 15.5 million gallons of ethanol. AMTX has outlined an ambitious 5-year plan targeting $2.0 billion in revenue and $644 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028, compared to FY2023 figures of $186.7 million in revenue and $(22.4) million in adjusted EBITDA. The company received approval for 20 years of Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates from CARB, expected to boost revenue from U.S. projects. Additionally, AMTX projects to have 10 additional dairy facilities completed or in progress by FY25.

Aemetis Biogas has commenced production from its tenth dairy digester, processing waste from a dairy in Stanislaus County, California. Five additional digesters are nearing commissioning, expanding operations to twelve digesters processing waste from sixteen dairies. This will increase Aemetis' renewable natural gas (RNG) production capacity by 80% to 550,000 MMBtu per year by 2025. This month, Aemetis expects to generate $11.5 million from investment tax credits from previous projects, with an additional $10 million expected from new digesters. Seven existing digesters are in the final verification process for California Air Resources Board (CARB) pathway approval under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which could double LCFS credit revenues. Aemetis has agreements with 49 dairies to supply waste for its Central Dairy Project, funded by $50 million in USDA loans, with another $75 million in loans pending. When fully operational, the project is expected to produce over 1.6 million MMBtu per year of RNG, generating $250 million in annual revenues.