After 3 months of decline, farmer sentiment rebounds in July

Rhea-AI Summary

CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) reported that the July Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 13 points to 126, ending a three-month decline in U.S. farmer sentiment. The Current Conditions Index climbed 20 points to 122, and the Future Expectations Index increased 11 points to 129. The July 13-17 survey covered 405 farmers nationwide.

The Farm Capital Investment Index also rebounded, reaching 50. High input costs remained the top operational challenge for 46% of producers, while 30% cited crop or livestock prices as the biggest long-term obstacle. For the next five to 10 years, farm transition (17%) and cost control (16%) followed prices as key concerns. About 13% of respondents said they were financially better off than a year earlier, and nearly 25% expect their financial position to improve within 12 months.

Regarding land and markets, most corn, soybean, wheat and cotton producers expect 2027 cash rents to stay flat, although 19% foresee increases, typically 5–10%. Expectations for U.S. agricultural exports were cautiously positive: 42% anticipate growth over five years, versus 13% expecting declines, and 56% see new foreign markets opening, down from 64% a year earlier. Short- and long-term farmland value expectations weakened, with respective indices falling to 118 and 152.

News Market Reaction – CME

-1.33%

1 alert

-1.33% Session close to close

$96.49B Market Cap

0.6x Rel. Volume

In the Aug 4 session, CME declined 1.33%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

CME's Q2 2026 earnings event recorded a 5% 24-hour reaction in the platform history. The farmer surv...

Analysis

CME's Q2 2026 earnings event recorded a 5% 24-hour reaction in the platform history. The farmer survey adds macro context to agricultural activity, while Net Selling and low short positioning remain relevant risk factors.

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: Increase of 13 points to 126 Current Conditions Index: Increase of 20 points to 122 Future Expectations Index: Increase of 11 points to 129 +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer Increase of 13 points to 126 July survey

Current Conditions Index Increase of 20 points to 122 July survey

Future Expectations Index Increase of 11 points to 129 July survey

Input-cost concern 46% Respondents identifying high input costs as the biggest challenge

Survey sample 405 farmers Nationwide survey conducted July 13-17

Farm Capital Investment Index 50 July survey reading after a three-month decline

Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index Declined 6 points to 118 July survey

Long-term farmland value index Declined 14 points to 152 July survey

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jul 27 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Jul 27	Trading schedule launch	Positive	+0.0%	Strong participation in inaugural weekend of 24/7 gold futures schedule
Jul 22	Quarterly earnings report	Positive	+5.0%	Q2 revenue, profit, EPS and volume metrics supported strong financial results
Jul 21	Agriculture futures launch	Positive	-3.1%	Sorghum basis futures launch was planned for August 24 pending regulatory review
Jul 09	Treasury trading launch	Positive	-1.4%	Treasury Link planned to connect cash Treasuries and futures for spread trading
Jul 09	Agriculture index launch	Positive	-1.4%	Agriculture Index launched as benchmark spanning five global farm economy sectors

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent CME company-news reactions were mixed, with several positive or expansion-oriented announcements followed by negative reactions.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Aug. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- After three consecutive months of decline, farmer sentiment rebounded as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reported an increase of 13 points in July to 126. The Current Conditions Index increased 20 points to 122, while the Future Expectations Index rose 11 points to 129. High input costs remained producers' top concern, with 46% identifying them as the biggest challenge facing their operation. When asked about the biggest challenge to success over the next five to 10 years, 30% of respondents cited crop or livestock prices. The survey was conducted among 405 farmers across the nation from July 13-17.

The Farm Capital Investment Index also ended a three-month decline, with July's survey reading at 50. While most producers said their current financial position has not improved over the past year, they expressed greater optimism about the months ahead. Thirteen percent of respondents reported being better off financially than a year ago, and nearly one-quarter expect their operation's financial position to improve over the next 12 months.

Beyond crop and livestock prices, producers identified farm transition (17%) and cost control (16%) as the second- and third-highest concerns over the next five to 10 years. Other major issues included financial considerations and weather at 13%, trade at 7%, and government policy at 3%. These priorities also shaped producers' educational interests, with marketing emerging as the top risk management education need for 44% of respondents, far outpacing financial and strategic risk management.

"Stronger crop prices during the survey period likely contributed to the improvement we observed in both farmer sentiment and the Farm Capital Investment Index," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "At the same time, producers continue to wrestle with high input costs and uncertainty about future crop and livestock prices. The strong interest in marketing education reflects the need for strategies to help producers navigate an increasingly uncertain pricing environment."

As preparations for cash rent negotiations begin, most corn, soybean, wheat and cotton growers in this month's survey expect rental rates to remain stable in 2027. Nineteen percent of respondents anticipate cash rents will increase, compared with 7% who expect a decline. Among those expecting higher rents, increases of 5% to 10% were most anticipated.

The July survey also explored producers' expectations for agricultural exports and foreign markets. Producers remain cautiously optimistic about U.S. agricultural exports. Forty-two percent of respondents expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, compared with 13% who expect exports to decline. A majority of producers (56%) believe new foreign export markets for U.S. agricultural goods are likely to open during that period, though this optimism has moderated from last July, when 64% expected new market opportunities.

Producers were somewhat less optimistic about farmland values in July. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 6 points to 118, while the long-term index declined 14 points to 152. Respondents identified alternative investments, net farm income and interest rates as the factors they expect to have the greatest influence on farmland values.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." Fifty-four percent of respondents said they believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, up slightly from 53% in June and 52% in May, but below the 71% average recorded during the last six months of 2025.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a research institution ranked among the top 10 public universities in the United States. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. As a land-grant university committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row, enabling more students than ever to graduate debt-free.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

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View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/after-3-months-of-decline-farmer-sentiment-rebounds-in-july-302841163.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What is the July 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer reading for farmers, and what does it show for CME (CME)?

The July 2026 Ag Economy Barometer reading was 126, up 13 points from June. According to CME Group, this increase ended a three-month decline and reflected rising optimism in both current conditions and future expectations among surveyed U.S. farmers.

How did farmer current conditions and future expectations indexes change in July 2026 in the Purdue/CME survey?

In July 2026, the Current Conditions Index rose 20 points to 122 and the Future Expectations Index increased 11 points to 129. According to CME Group, both measures contributed to the overall improvement in the Ag Economy Barometer.

What are farmers’ biggest concerns over the next 5 to 10 years, according to the July 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer?

Farmers’ biggest long-term concern is crop or livestock prices, cited by 30% of respondents. According to CME Group, farm transition (17%) and cost control (16%) followed, with financial issues, weather, trade and government policy also noted as important challenges.

How did the Farm Capital Investment Index perform in July 2026 in the Purdue/CME survey?

The Farm Capital Investment Index rose to 50 in July 2026, ending a three-month decline. According to CME Group, this suggests improved willingness to invest, even though most producers said their overall financial position had not improved over the past year.

What do July 2026 Purdue/CME survey results say about expectations for U.S. agricultural exports?

In the July 2026 survey, 42% of producers expected U.S. agricultural exports to increase over five years, while 13% expected declines. According to CME Group, 56% also anticipated new foreign export markets opening during that period, slightly below last year’s optimism.

What are farmers expecting for 2027 cash rental rates, according to the July 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer?

Most surveyed corn, soybean, wheat and cotton growers expect 2027 cash rents to remain unchanged. According to CME Group, 19% anticipate higher rents and 7% foresee declines, with most expected increases in the 5% to 10% range among those predicting gains.