Farmer sentiment drops as concerns about input costs increase

A record 52% of surveyed farmers named higher input costs as their top concern, despite record long-term farmland value expectations.

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CME Group (CME) and Purdue University's September Ag Economy Barometer survey showed farmer sentiment falling to 123 points amid input-cost concerns. The survey covered 400 farmers nationwide from Sept. 14-18, 2026. Sentiment was down from 135 in August, while a record 52% named higher input costs as their top concern.

The Index of Current Conditions dropped 18 points and the Index of Future Expectations fell 9 points. Looking one year ahead, 35% expected their operation to be financially worse off, versus 22% expecting improvement. The Farm Financial Performance Index fell from 103 to 90, and the Farm Capital Investment Index declined 6 points to 39.

Farmland expectations diverged: the short-term index fell 1 point to 126, while the long-term index rose 5 points to a record 168. Among corn and soybean producers, 73% expected unchanged cash rents in 2027, and 37% expected U.S. soybean exports to increase over the next five years.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Oct. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- In the September Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey, 52% of respondents cited higher input costs as their top concern, marking a new record high. Alongside an 18-point drop in the Index of Current Conditions, overall farmer sentiment weakened in September, falling from 135 points in August to 123. Although the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index also reached a new high of 168, up 5 points from August, the Index of Future Expectations fell 9 points, as more respondents expected their operation to be worse off financially (35%) than better off (22%) a year from now. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from Sept. 14-18.

"Producer sentiment this month reflects a growing divide between concerns about the near term and expectations for the longer term," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "While higher costs and financial pressures are clearly shaping producers' views of current conditions, strong expectations for farmland values point to a more positive outlook for some aspects of the agricultural economy."

Growing pessimism about financial prospects over the next 12 months was reflected in the Farm Financial Performance Index, which fell from 103 in August to 90 in this month's survey. This negative outlook on current financial conditions coincided with a 6-point drop in the Farm Capital Investment Index to 39.

This month's survey included three sets of questions for corn and soybean producers, covering expectations for cash rents, cover crop use, and soybean exports and competitiveness. A majority of producers (73%) expected cash rents to remain the same in 2027. Of the 22% who expected cash rents to increase next year, about 47% anticipated an increase of 0% to 5%. A little less than half (46%) of this month's respondents said they currently plant cover crops, with about one-third of those indicating they have planted cover crops for more than 10 years, and 15% said cover crops are planted on a majority of their acreage. Twenty-two percent of respondents indicated that they have planted cover crops in the past.

When asked about the future of U.S. soybean exports over the next five years, 37% of corn and soybean producers expect U.S. soybean exports to increase, while 10% anticipate a decline. However, competitiveness remains a concern for many producers comparing U.S. soybean production with Brazil's; just under 20% of respondents said they were not concerned about the U.S. position relative to Brazil.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 1 point to 126 in September, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed to a new high of 168. Respondents cited alternative investments, inflation and interest rates as the three factors expected to have the greatest influence on farmland values.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they believe the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." The share of producers who said the U.S. was headed in the right direction averaged 71% in the final six months of 2025 and 62% in the first six months of 2026. That share fell to between 51% and 54% in July and August before dropping below 50% in September. September marks the first time since the question was introduced that fewer than half of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the right direction.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a research institution ranked among the top 10 public universities in the United States. More than 111,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. As a land-grant university committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row, enabling more students than ever to graduate debt-free.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

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SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

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What did the September 2026 Purdue University/CME Group farmer sentiment survey show?

The Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 points from 135 in August. A record 52% of respondents cited higher input costs as their top concern. The survey covered 400 farmers nationwide from Sept. 14-18.

What did the CME Group survey find about U.S. soybean competitiveness?

Just under 20% of respondents said they were not concerned about U.S. soybean production's competitive position relative to Brazil. Among corn and soybean producers, 37% expected U.S. soybean exports to increase over the next five years, while 10% anticipated a decline.

What did the Purdue University/CME Group survey report about cover crop use?

46% of September respondents said they currently plant cover crops. About one-third of that group had planted them for more than 10 years. Separately, 15% said cover crops were planted on a majority of their acreage, and 22% indicated they had planted cover crops in the past.

How did farmers' views of the country's direction change in the CME Group survey?

Fewer than 50% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the right direction in September, the first such result since the question began in July 2025. That share averaged 71% in the final six months of 2025 and 62% in the first six months of 2026, then fell to between 51% and 54% in July and August.