Farmer sentiment drops sharply at start of 2026 as economic concerns increase

Rhea-AI Summary

CME (CME) reports farmer sentiment fell sharply in January 2026: the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer dropped 23 points to 113. Current Conditions fell to 109

Future Expectations fell to 115, Farm Capital Investment slid to 47, and Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations dropped to 152. Producers cited higher operating-loan carryover and export competitiveness concerns; >50% plan to use Farmer Bridge Assistance to pay down debt.

Positive

• Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations unchanged at 117
• Majority of recipients plan to use Farmer Bridge funds to reduce debt (>50%)
• Farm Capital Investment Index provides a clear, trackable sentiment metric at 47

Negative

• Ag Economy Barometer fell 23 points to 113 in January 2026
• Future Expectations Index declined 25 points to 115
• Current Conditions Index fell 19 points to 109
• Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations dropped 14 points to 152
• 21% of producers expect larger operating loans, up from 18% last year
• 16% expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over five years (up from 5%)

News Market Reaction

+0.79%

1 alert

+0.79% News Effect

On the day this news was published, CME gained 0.79%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 113 Current Conditions Index: 109 Future Expectations Index: 115 +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer 113 January 2026 reading, down 23 points from December

Current Conditions Index 109 January 2026 farmer sentiment current conditions index

Future Expectations Index 115 January 2026 farmer expectations for U.S. agriculture

Farm Capital Investment Index 47 January 2026, down 11 points, lowest since October 2024

Weaker performance expected 30% Farmers expecting weaker financial performance in next 12 months

Improved performance expected 20% Farmers expecting improved financial performance in next 12 months

Expect larger operating loan 21% Producers anticipating a larger operating loan vs prior year

Concern on Brazil competition 80% Corn and soybean producers concerned about U.S. soybean competitiveness vs Brazil

Market Reality Check

Price: $297.38 Vol: Volume 1,998,156 is close...

normal vol

$297.38 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,998,156 is close to the 20-day average of 2,059,582 (relative volume 0.97x). normal

Technical Price at $290.77 trades above the 200-day MA of $273.14 and sits 1.02% below the 52-week high of $293.78.

Peers on Argus

CME is up 0.59% while key peers are mixed: ICE -0.47%, COIN -1.02%, NDAQ -0.38%,...

CME is up 0.59% while key peers are mixed: ICE -0.47%, COIN -1.02%, NDAQ -0.38%, SPGI -0.02%, and MCO +0.17%. This points to a stock-specific move rather than a broad exchange-sector rotation.

Common Catalyst Peer headlines focus on exchange and data operators’ operational milestones and branding (e.g., ICE trading records, SEC approvals; SPGI divisional rebrand), while CME’s news centers on the Purdue/CME agricultural sentiment survey.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 28 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Jan 28	Sponsorship deal	Positive	+0.6%	Multiyear Chicago White Sox jersey patch and branding partnership announcement.
Jan 27	Volume record	Positive	+0.1%	New record in metals futures and options daily trading volumes and open interest.
Jan 21	Volume record	Positive	-0.3%	Record single-day trading in natural gas futures and options across key contracts.
Jan 15	Volume strength	Positive	-1.0%	Record-driven August 2024 ADV of <b>31.7M</b> contracts across multiple asset classes.
Jan 15	Ag sentiment drop	Negative	-1.0%	August 2024 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer and related indices fell sharply.

Pattern Detected

Recent CME headlines on record trading volumes often showed modestly positive or mixed price reactions, while a prior Ag Economy Barometer decline coincided with a negative move. Overall, news-driven reactions have been split between alignment and divergence.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, CME news has highlighted brand partnerships, record trading volumes across metals and natural gas, and strong August 2024 activity with 31.7M average daily contracts. One prior item also covered a sharp drop in the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer to 100. Price reactions to these events were mixed: some operational records aligned with small gains, while others and the earlier barometer decline saw negative moves. Today’s farmer sentiment deterioration continues that macro-agriculture theme tied to the CME brand.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights a sharp deterioration in farmer sentiment, with the Ag Economy Baromete...

Analysis

This announcement highlights a sharp deterioration in farmer sentiment, with the Ag Economy Barometer at 113 and the Farm Capital Investment Index at 47, signaling greater caution on spending and rising concern over exports and debt. For CME, whose brand is tied to this survey and agricultural risk management, investors may watch future readings, export expectations, and farm financial conditions to gauge longer-term demand for ag-related hedging and related products.

Key Terms

operating loans, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, derivatives marketplace, over-the-counter (OTC) markets, +1 more

5 terms

operating loans financial

"questions about farmers' operating loans for the upcoming year."

Operating loans are short-term borrowings a business uses to pay everyday bills like payroll, inventory, and rent—think of them as a company’s cash cushion to keep the lights on between incoming payments. For investors they matter because reliance on these loans affects a company’s liquidity, interest costs and risk of trouble if sales slow; heavy or repeated use can signal cash-flow strain or tighter borrowing terms ahead.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates technical

"coinciding with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates"

A monthly report that estimates global production, consumption, trade and ending stocks for major crops and livestock, essentially a supply-and-demand “weather forecast” for agricultural commodities. Investors use it to gauge likely price moves, policy and trade impacts, and risks to companies tied to food, feed and biofuel markets—so changes can quickly affect commodity prices, farm incomes and related stocks.

derivatives marketplace technical

"As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group..."

A derivatives marketplace is a trading venue where contracts whose value is tied to underlying assets—such as stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies or indexes—are bought and sold. It matters to investors because these contracts let people protect against price moves or take leveraged bets; like an insurance market and a betting market rolled together, activity there can change liquidity, volatility and the prices investors actually pay for the underlying assets.

over-the-counter (OTC) markets financial

"enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets"

Over-the-counter (OTC) markets are places where securities are bought and sold directly between parties rather than on a centralized stock exchange; think of a flea market for stocks and bonds instead of a supermarket checkout. They matter to investors because OTC-listed instruments often have fewer reporting rules, lower trading volume and wider price swings, which can mean both higher potential returns and greater risk, lower liquidity, and less transparency.

central counterparty clearing technical

"operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers"

A central counterparty clearing (CCP) is a specialized financial intermediary that sits between buyers and sellers of securities or derivatives, becoming the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer to guarantee trades are completed. Like an insurance-backed referee, it manages the risk of someone failing to pay by requiring collateral, pooling resources, and simplifying many trades into smaller net payments, which helps investors by lowering the chance of loss from a counterparty default and improving market stability and liquidity.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Feb. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 23 points from December to a reading of 113. The decline reflected growing pessimism about both current conditions and the future outlook for U.S. agriculture; the Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points to 109, while the Future Expectations Index fell 25 points to 115. The largest shift was in producers' long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture, with the index that measures expectations for widespread good and bad times over the next five years falling to its lowest level since September 2024. Producers also expressed greater concern about agricultural exports than last month. The survey was conducted Jan. 12-16, coinciding with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Jan. 12.

Producers reported worsening farm financial conditions compared with a year earlier. Half of the farmers surveyed indicated that their operations were worse off than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, more producers expect conditions to worsen than to improve. Thirty percent of respondents anticipate weaker financial performance in the coming year, compared with 20% who expect improvement. Reflecting this more cautious outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 11 points in January to 47, its lowest level since October 2024. Just 4% of producers said they plan to increase farm machinery purchases over the next year.

"What stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "That points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead."

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers' operating loans for the upcoming year. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they expect to have a larger operating loan compared with a year earlier, up from 18% last year. Among producers anticipating an increase, 31% cited carryover of unpaid operating debt from the prior year as the primary reason. This percentage has risen steadily in recent years, increasing from just 5% in 2023 to 17% in 2024 and 23% in 2025. The results align with producers' growing concerns about farm financial performance.

Producers also expressed increased pessimism about the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports in January. When asked about export prospects over the next five years, 16% of respondents said they expect exports to decline, up from 5% in December. Concerns were even greater among corn and soybean farmers when the question specifically addressed soybeans, a key agricultural export. This month, 21% of corn and soybean producers said they expect soybean exports to decline over the next five years, compared with 13% the previous month. Increasing competition from Brazil is also weighing heavily on producers' minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, including 44% stating they were very concerned.

Producers remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, while their longer-term outlook became more cautious. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index was unchanged at 117. After reaching a record high in December, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 14 points in January to a reading of 152. Respondents cited alternative investment opportunities, net farm income and interest rates as the factors expected to have the greatest influence on farmland values.

The January survey asked corn and soybean producers how they expect to use payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. More than half of respondents said they plan to use the payments to pay down debt, while 25% indicated the funds would be used to improve working capital. The remaining respondents said the payments would go toward family living expenses (10%) or investment in farm machinery (12%).

Producers' broader outlook for the U.S. economy also softened. As in recent months, respondents were asked whether the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." In January, 62% of producers said the U.S. is headed in the "right direction," down from 75% in December 2025.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. 

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-drops-sharply-at-start-of-2026-as-economic-concerns-increase-302676727.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

Why did the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer (CME) fall to 113 in January 2026?

Because producers reported worsening current conditions and outlooks, the barometer fell 23 points to 113. According to CME Group, declines in the Current Conditions Index and Future Expectations drove the drop, with rising concerns about debt carryover and export competitiveness.

What does the Farm Capital Investment Index of 47 mean for CME-listed agriculture markets?

A reading of 47 signals reduced planned capital spending among farmers in the next 12 months. According to CME Group, the index fell 11 points in January, with just 4% planning increased machinery purchases, implying lower equipment demand near-term.

How did farmer views on U.S. agricultural exports change in January 2026 (CME)?

Producer pessimism rose: 16% expect exports to decline over five years, up from 5% in December. According to CME Group, corn and soybean growers were especially concerned, citing competitiveness pressures from Brazil as a key factor.

How are farmers planning to use Farmer Bridge Assistance payments according to CME Group?

More than half of recipients plan to pay down debt, while 25% expect to improve working capital. According to CME Group, remaining uses include family living (10%) and machinery investment (12%).

What does the change in long-term farmland value expectations to 152 indicate for investors (CME)?

The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell to 152, down 14 points, signaling a more cautious multi-year view. According to CME Group, respondents cited alternative investments, net farm income and interest rates as key influences on farmland values.