Farmer sentiment rebounds, but future expectations continue to slide

Rhea-AI Summary

Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (CME) rose 3 points in February to 116, led by an 11-point gain in the Current Conditions Index. The Future Expectations Index fell 1 point to its weakest level since September 2024 and remains 45 points below February 2025.

Producers show cautious capital plans: Farm Capital Investment Index edged to 50 and only 7% plan more machinery purchases. Survey conducted Feb. 2-6; nearly 47% plan to use recent assistance payments to pay down debt.

Positive

• Ag Economy Barometer +3 points to 116 in February
• Current Conditions Index +11 points in February
• Farm Capital Investment Index +3 points to 50
• 47% of respondents will use assistance payments to pay down debt

Negative

• Future Expectations Index -1 point, lowest since September 2024
• Future Expectations 45 points below February 2025 reading
• Only 7% of producers plan to increase machinery purchases
• 29% expect farm financial performance to worsen next 12 months versus 18% expecting improvement
• Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell from 166 (Dec) to 150 (Feb)

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 116 Current Conditions Index: 11-point increase Future Expectations gap: 45 points lower +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer 116 February reading, up 3 points from January

Current Conditions Index 11-point increase February gain versus January

Future Expectations gap 45 points lower Versus February 2025 Future Expectations reading

Operations worse off 44% of respondents Share saying their farm is worse off than a year earlier

Expect worsening finances 29% of respondents Farm financial performance expected to worsen next 12 months

Expect expansion 51% of respondents Plan to expand farm size over the next five years

Farmland short-term index 123 Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index in February, up from 117

Debt repayment use 47% of payments Farmer Bridge Assistance funds planned for debt paydown

Market Reality Check

Price: $326.46 Vol: Volume 2,237,687 is at 0....

normal vol

$326.46 Last Close

Volume Volume 2,237,687 is at 0.86x the 20-day average of 2,595,768, indicating no unusual trading activity ahead of this sentiment update. normal

Technical Price 326.46 is trading above the 200-day MA of 276.43 and sits 0.41% below the 52-week high of 327.79, reflecting a strong longer-term uptrend.

Peers on Argus

CME gained 2.18% while peers showed mixed moves: ICE -0.29%, MCO -0.72%, versus ...

CME gained 2.18% while peers showed mixed moves: ICE -0.29%, MCO -0.72%, versus NDAQ +2.48% and SPGI +2.33%, with COIN +7.35%. The combination of advances and declines indicates a stock-specific move rather than a broad sector rotation.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 25 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 25	Conference presentation	Neutral	+3.0%	Executive presentation at Raymond James investor conference with webcast access.
Feb 24	Volume milestone	Positive	-3.7%	Record 36.3M U.S. Treasury futures and options open interest across curve.
Feb 19	Product expansion	Positive	+0.5%	Plan to launch 24/7 regulated cryptocurrency futures and options trading.
Feb 13	Volume milestone	Positive	+0.1%	Event contracts reach 100M traded within eight weeks of launch.
Feb 12	Board composition	Neutral	-0.3%	Announcement of director nominees slate for May 14, 2026 annual meeting.

Pattern Detected

Recent operational and product milestones have generally seen price moves that align with the positive tone of announcements, with one notable divergence on a record open interest update.

Recent Company History

Over the past few weeks, CME has reported several operational milestones and corporate updates. On Feb 24, it announced record U.S. Treasury open interest, following crypto trading expansion news on Feb 19 and an event contracts volume milestone on Feb 13. Governance and conference participation updates rounded out the period. Against this backdrop of steady product and volume growth, the farmer sentiment barometer release with Purdue offers additional macro insight into agricultural market conditions, which is relevant for CME’s ag-related contracts but does not change its recent strategic trajectory.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlighted an Ag Economy Barometer reading of 116, with stronger current conditio...

Analysis

This announcement highlighted an Ag Economy Barometer reading of 116, with stronger current conditions but weakening future expectations and 44% of farmers feeling worse off than a year earlier. For CME, these data points inform expectations around agricultural hedging demand and farmland value dynamics rather than signaling company-specific change. Investors may track subsequent survey updates, CME’s ag-related volumes, and regulatory filings such as the recent 10-K and 8-K earnings disclosure to gauge how macro farm trends intersect with its derivatives franchise.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., March 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment improved modestly in February, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 3 points from January to a reading of 116. The increase was driven by a stronger assessment of current conditions; the Current Conditions Index climbed 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index slipped by 1 point and fell to its lowest level since September 2024, standing 45 points below its February 2025 reading. Although concerns about agricultural exports moderated somewhat compared to January, they remain elevated relative to December. The survey was conducted Feb. 2-6. 

"Although producers reported stronger current conditions in February, the overall survey sentiment suggests farmers are carefully weighing short-term stability against longer-term uncertainty," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Many operations are still feeling financial pressure compared to a year ago, which is evident in their cautious investment strategies and a more reserved outlook for the coming year."

Approximately 44% of respondents said their farm operations were worse off in February than a year earlier. Looking ahead, producers remained cautious about their financial outlook, with 29% expecting their farm's financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared to 18% who anticipated an improvement. The Farm Capital Investment Index edged up 3 points to 50, but investment plans remain subdued, as just 7% of respondents reported plans to increase farm machinery purchases in the coming year.

Since 2016, the February barometer survey has included questions about producers' long-term growth plans. This year, approximately 15% of respondents said they plan to reduce the size of their operation, while 34% reported no plans to grow. By contrast, 51% indicated they expect to expand their farms over the next five years, including 14% who plan to increase their operation's size by 10% or more. The survey also found that 36% of producers plan to bring another family member into the business during the next five years, signaling a continued emphasis on expansion and succession planning despite ongoing financial concerns.

Producers' outlook for U.S. agricultural exports improved slightly from January but remained more pessimistic than at the end of 2025. In February, 14% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, down from 16% in January but still notably higher than the 5% who expressed that view in December. 

Producers remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in February, while their outlook for long-run land values continued to soften. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose from 117 to 123. In contrast, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, which reached a record high of 166 in December, declined to 152 in January and 150 in February. Respondents identified alternative investments, net farm income and interest rates as the three most influential factors shaping farmland values.

The February survey also asked producers how they plan to use payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, announced in late December. Nearly half (47%) said they intend to use the funds to pay down debt, while 27% plan to strengthen working capital. The remaining respondents indicated the payments would be used for family living expenses (12%) or to invest in farm machinery (14%).

Producers' views on the broader direction of the U.S. economy weakened slightly for the second consecutive month; the percentage who indicated the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" declined from 62% in January to 59% in February.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. 

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

 

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-rebounds-but-future-expectations-continue-to-slide-302702158.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer show for February 2026 (CME)?

The barometer rose modestly to 116, a 3-point increase from January. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, gains were driven by an 11-point improvement in Current Conditions while Future Expectations softened.

How did farmers' short-term and long-term farmland value expectations change in February 2026 (CME)?

Short-term farmland expectations rose to 123, while long-term expectations eased to 150. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, short-term optimism improved but long-run land value sentiment continued to decline from recent highs.

What do February 2026 survey results say about farm investment plans and machinery purchases (CME)?

Investment plans remain subdued: the Farm Capital Investment Index ticked to 50 and only 7% plan increased machinery purchases. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, producers are cautious about capital spending despite slightly stronger current conditions.

How are farmers expecting their financial performance over the next 12 months according to the February 2026 barometer (CME)?

29% expect their farm financial performance to worsen, while 18% expect improvement. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, a plurality of respondents remain cautious about near-term financial prospects.

How did producers plan to use Farmer Bridge Assistance payments according to the February 2026 survey (CME)?

Nearly 47% plan to use the payments to pay down debt, and 27% to strengthen working capital. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, remaining funds are earmarked for family living and machinery at lower rates.

What does the February 2026 survey indicate about long-term growth and succession plans for farms (CME)?

51% expect to expand their farms over five years; 15% plan to reduce size and 36% plan to bring in another family member. According to the Purdue/CME Group barometer, expansion and succession remain prominent despite caution.