CoStar Data Shows Midlands Big-Box Market Reaches Turning Point as Supply Starts to Fall

Key Terms

big-box technical

A big-box store is a very large, warehouse-like retail outlet that sells a wide range of goods—often at lower prices—under one roof, similar to a one-stop supermarket but for general merchandise. Investors watch big-box chains because their size, pricing strategy, and real estate needs affect sales volume, profit margins, and cash flow, making them sensitive to consumer spending patterns, supply-chain costs, and the value of large retail properties.

pre‑let technical

A pre-let is an agreement to rent or take occupancy of commercial property before the building is finished or handed over. For investors, a pre-let acts like a guaranteed future customer: it locks in rental income and reduces the risk and financing uncertainty of a development project, making the investment easier to value and more attractive to lenders and buyers.

3d digital twin technology technical

3D digital twin technology creates a detailed, virtual replica of a physical object, system, or environment by combining 3D models with real-time sensor and data feeds. Investors care because these replicas let companies test changes, predict failures, and optimize performance without interrupting operations—think of a flight simulator for factories or buildings—and can reduce costs, speed development, and reveal new revenue or efficiency opportunities.

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Big-box warehouse supply across the Midlands has begun to fall after the turn-of-the-year peak, according to data from CoStar, a global leading provider of online real estate marketplaces, information and analytics in the property markets.

CoStar Data Shows Midlands Big-Box Market Reaches Turning Point as Supply Starts to Fall

Availability has fallen by around 5m sq. ft. in recent months due to stronger occupier demand and a moderating construction pipeline, following a prolonged period of rising supply. Despite this decline, it remains historically high at around 30m sq. ft.

“Many occupiers are now moving earlier to secure space,” said Grant Lonsdale, senior director of market analytics at CoStar Europe. “This is particularly evident in established distribution locations with strong motorway access, driving around 6m sq. ft, of take‑up across the Midlands in the opening months of this year.”

At the same time, construction activity has slowed markedly, with around 70% of the region’s big-box space under construction pre‑let, limiting new availability in the coming months. At 9.3m sq. ft., the pipeline is 40% smaller than two years ago and half its 2022 peak.

“Tightening market conditions are likely to stabilise incentives and rental levels after a period of subdued activity,” said Lonsdale. “While rental growth may remain selective and scheme‑specific, the balance of power may be beginning to shift modestly back toward landlords, particularly owners of high‑quality warehouses.”

The full analysis can be found here.

For more information about the company and its products and services, please visit www.costargroup.com.

About CoStar Group

CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) is a global leader in commercial real estate information, analytics, online marketplaces, and 3D digital twin technology. Founded in 1986, CoStar Group is dedicated to digitizing the world’s real estate, empowering all people to discover properties, insights, and connections that improve their businesses and lives.

CoStar Group’s major brands include CoStar, a leading global provider of commercial real estate data, analytics, and news; LoopNet, the most trafficked commercial real estate marketplace; Apartments.com, the leading platform for apartment rentals; Homes.com, the fastest-growing residential real estate marketplace; and Domain, one of Australia’s leading property marketplaces. CoStar Group’s industry-leading brands also include Matterport, a leading spatial data company whose platform turns buildings into data to make every space more valuable and accessible; STR, a global leader in hospitality data and benchmarking; Ten-X, an online platform for commercial real estate auctions and negotiated bids; and OnTheMarket, a leading residential property portal in the United Kingdom.

CoStar Group’s websites attracted over 139 million average monthly unique visitors in the fourth quarter of 2025, serving clients around the world. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, CoStar Group is committed to transforming the real estate industry through innovative technology and comprehensive market intelligence. From time to time, we plan to utilize our corporate website as a channel of distribution for material company information. For more information, visit CoStarGroup.com.

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Karolina Capova
Senior Media Relations Specialist
kcapova@costar.com

Source: CoStar Group