Denison Reports Readiness to Commence Construction of Flagship Phoenix ISR Project and Provides Capital Cost Update
Rhea-AI Summary
Denison (NYSE: DNN) is ready to make a final investment decision and commence construction of the Phoenix ISR uranium mine pending final federal approvals, targeting first production by mid-2028 following a 2-year construction schedule.
Key updates include a Class 2 post-FID Updated Capex of $600 million (2026 dollars; ~20% above the 2023 FS when inflated), ~87% engineering complete, shipment schedules for long-lead items on track, and over $700 million of cash, uranium and investments as of Sept 30, 2025 to fund initial capital requirements.
Positive
- Updated Capex set at $600 million (Class 2 post-FID)
- Construction timeline confirmed at approximately 24 months
- First production targeted for mid-2028 if Q1 2026 approvals received
- Engineering progress ~87% complete; 92% primary deliverables issued
- Balance sheet >$700 million in cash, uranium and investments
- Committed procurement ~75% equipment supported by contracts/bids
Negative
- Initial capital increased ~20% versus 2023 FS (inflation-adjusted)
- Pre-FID expenditures ~ $100 million versus $67.4 million in 2023 FS
- Post-tax payback extended from ~10 months to ~12 months
- Post-tax IRR reduced from 90% to 73% under updated assumptions
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus 1 Up
DNN gained 1.14% with several uranium peers also higher: UUUU up 3.12%, URG up 2.21%, NXE up 0.66%, while LEU declined 1.73%, suggesting a generally supportive uranium tape alongside this company-specific milestone.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17 | JV expansion | Positive | -4.6% | Closed Skyharbour deal forming four exploration JVs near Wheeler River. |
| Dec 04 | Community agreement | Positive | +5.2% | Signed Impact Benefit and Exploration Agreements with Métis Nation–Saskatchewan. |
| Dec 01 | Benefit agreement | Positive | -1.6% | Signed Nuhenéné Benefit Agreement securing support from seven communities. |
| Nov 17 | Asset acquisition | Positive | -3.6% | Agreed to acquire interests in Skyharbour’s Russell Lake uranium property. |
| Nov 06 | Earnings & operations | Positive | -4.1% | Reported Q3 2025 results and first production from McClean North mine. |
Recent Wheeler River and partnership updates have often been followed by short-term share price pullbacks, even when strategically positive, with only one of the last five news events seeing a positive 24-hour reaction.
Over the last several months, Denison reported multiple Wheeler River–related milestones and regional expansions. In Q3 2025, it achieved first production from McClean North and completed a US$345 million convertible note offering, ending the quarter with about $720 million in cash, investments and uranium. Subsequent agreements with Ya'thi Néné and Métis Nation–Saskatchewan secured community consent around Wheeler River. Transactions with Skyharbour expanded Denison’s strategic footprint near Wheeler River. Today’s construction‑readiness and capex update builds directly on these regulatory and engineering advances.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement advances Denison’s Phoenix ISR project to a construction‑ready stage with an updated initial capital estimate of $600 million, a projected post-tax NPV of $1.57 billion and 73% IRR at base-case uranium prices. A two‑year build is targeted, with first production by mid‑2028, supported by over $700 million in cash, uranium and investments. Investors may watch for final federal approvals, adherence to the ~24‑month schedule, and any future updates to operating cost assumptions.
Key Terms
in-situ recovery technical
environmental assessment regulatory
net present value financial
internal rate of return financial
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
David Cates, President & CEO of Denison, commented, "After another year of significant investment and progress, Denison stands ready to make a final investment decision and commence construction of the Phoenix ISR mine proposed for our flagship Wheeler River property. With the recent conclusion of the CNSC public hearing, and receipt of an initial approval to commence construction activities from the Province of
Owing to years of work de-risking and advancing
Based on our strong balance sheet, and the advanced state of project engineering, construction planning, and procurement activities, we are confident that we will be able to make a positive final investment decision following receipt of final regulatory approvals. While our estimate of initial capital costs has increased modestly from the 2023 Phoenix FS, it is important to note that the Project is now ready for construction, continues to have only a two-year construction schedule, and that the updated costs are the basis for our project Control Budget – meaning that there are no further revisions expected prior to the commencement of construction."
Phoenix Construction Readiness Highlights
- Conclusion of CNSC public hearing represents final step in federal regulatory process: The two-part Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission ("CNSC") public hearing, considering Denison's application for the approval of the Environmental Assessment ("EA") and the Licence to Prepare the Site for & Construct a Mine and Mill (the "Licence"), concluded on December 11, 2025. Denison is now awaiting a decision from the CNSC.
- Provincial environmental assessment approved: In August, Denison announced the Project received Ministerial approval under The Environmental Assessment Act (
Saskatchewan ). - Received initial provincial approval to conduct certain earthworks: Denison recently received authorization from the Province of
Saskatchewan to conduct certain activities associated with the initial earthworks for the Project, including vegetation removal and site drainage works. - Ready to begin construction: The procurement process for planned 2026 construction contracts is nearly complete with contract awards pending and expected in early 2026. Based on significant construction planning efforts completed to date, it is expected that Denison will achieve a level 4 (detailed task level) construction schedule shortly after contract awards are complete and contractors are onboarded.
- Shipment of long lead items on schedule: Expected shipment dates for all key long lead items are on schedule, including electrical distribution infrastructure consisting of main site transformer, substation high voltage equipment, switchgear, and substation e-house.
- Substantial completion of project engineering: Detailed design engineering for the Project is substantially complete with approximately
87% total engineering complete to date, and92% of primary engineering deliverables issued for construction with remaining engineering, related to the latter phases of project construction, forecasted to be completed by Q2'2026. - Updated initial capital cost estimate based on significant procurement progress: Given significant progress with long-lead procurement and the advanced stage of negotiation on several key construction work packages, a Class 2 post-FID capital cost estimate has been prepared to set a project construction cost control budget ("Control Budget"). This capital cost estimate updates the Class 3 cost estimate (based on 2022 costing) reported in the 2023 feasibility study for
Phoenix (the "2023 Phoenix FS"). Post-FID initial capital costs forPhoenix are now expected to be ("Updated Capex"), which reflects a combination of inflationary adjustments, cost increases, project refinements, and improved estimation precision. The Updated Capex is a$600 million 20% increase relative to the 2023 Phoenix FS when adjusted for inflation. Importantly, the Project is now in a construction ready state and no adjustments to the Updated Capex are expected prior to commencement of construction. - Strong balance sheet to fund construction: With over
of cash, physical uranium and investments as of September 30, 2025, Denison is in a strong financial position to fund the initial capital requirements of the Project.$700 million - Permit receipt remains key catalyst for advancing to construction: Denison is ready to make a FID and commence construction shortly after receiving federal approval of the EA and Licence. If construction commences by the end of Q1'2026, the Project timeline will remain on track for targeted first production by mid-2028.
Phoenix Initial Capital Cost Update
As a result of significant progress with long-lead procurement and the advanced stage of negotiation on several key construction work packages, a Class 2 post-FID capital cost estimate has been prepared to set the Control Budget for Phoenix. Approximately
After accounting for increases in inflation, cost increases, and project refinements, the Company now estimates the total post-FID initial capital estimate for the Project to be approximately
A notable refinement to the 2023 Phoenix FS is the planned installation of large diameter wells throughout the Phase 1 mining area to enable each well to act as an injection or recovery well. The 2023 Phoenix FS was based on approximately half of the wells in Phase 1 being large diameter and the other half being smaller diameter wells for injection only. While this modification increases initial capital costs, it is expected to improve the operational flexibility of the wellfield, optimize rates of recoveries, and support achievement of the 2023 Phoenix FS production targets.
Table 1 – Phoenix Initial Capital Cost Estimate ( | ||||
2023 Phoenix FS(1) (2022 Dollars) | 2023 (2026 Dollars) | Updated Capex (2026 Dollars) | Variance from | |
Post-FID | 20 % | |||
(1) | Based on the 2023 Phoenix FS. |
(2) | Inflation based on Statistics Canada Building Construction Price Increase for Industrial Buildings (Q4 2022 to Q3 2025) + estimated additional |
The Updated Capex assumes a FID is made at the end of February 2026 and excludes approximately
Construction of the Project is still planned to be completed during an approximate 24-month construction period. If the Project receives all necessary approvals to commence construction by the end of the first quarter of 2026, Denison would be able to initiate construction as planned and maintain its target of achieving first production by mid-2028.
When compared to the 2023 Phoenix FS, using the same basis to determine the base-case uranium sales price for the Project (UxC's "Composite Midpoint" spot price scenario, using constant dollars), the projected base-case adjusted after-tax NPV for the Project remains effectively the same, as the increase in initial post-FID capital costs is offset by a modest improvement in the uranium price assumptions since mid-2023 (see Table 2). After incorporating the Updated Capex,
Table 2 – Initial Capital Cost Estimate Comparison ( | ||
2023 Phoenix FS(1) (2022 Dollars) | Updated Capex Estimate(2) (2026 Dollars) | |
Post-FID Initial Capital | ||
Base Case Uranium Price(3) | UxC Comp. Midpoint Q2 2023 ( | UxC Comp. Midpoint Q4 2025 ( |
Post-Tax Payback Period(4) | ~10 months | ~12 months |
Post-Tax NPV | ||
Post-Tax NPV | 3.7 | 2.6 |
Post-Tax IRR(5) | 90 % | 73 % |
(1) | Based on the 2023 Phoenix FS. |
(2) | Estimated project economics reflect Updated Capex and revised base case uranium price, as described herein. All other costs and production estimates are consistent with the 2023 Phoenix FS and are shown from the point in time in which a FID is made and excludes pre-FID expenditures. Denison assumes FID occurs at the end of February 2026. |
(3) | UxC LLC ("UxC") forecast is based on "Composite Midpoint" constant dollar scenario from UxC's Q2 2023 and Q4 2025 Uranium Market Outlook ("UMO"), as outlined above. |
(4) | Payback period is stated as number of months to payback post-FID initial capital expenditures from the start of uranium production. |
(5) | Post-tax NPV, IRR and payback period are based on the "adjusted post-tax" scenario in the 2023 Phoenix FS, which includes the benefit of certain entity level tax attributes which are expected to be available and used to reduce taxable income from the |
There are no material changes to the technical information included in the 2023 Phoenix FS, and Denison continues to expect the estimated construction timeline, annual rates of uranium production, operating costs, sustaining capital costs and reclamation costs to be largely consistent with the 2023 Phoenix FS. Accordingly, Denison is not, at this time, providing any updates to the
Based on the Updated Capex, the Project's sensitivity to the uranium price has been updated as per Table 3 below. Since the 2023 Phoenix FS, expected uranium spot prices have increased slightly, whereas long-term uranium prices, which are intended to represent the pricing for base-escalated long-term contracts in today's dollars, have increased over
Table 3 – Project Economics Sensitivity with Updated Capex(1) ( | |||
Uranium Price | Post-Tax | Post-Tax | Post-Tax IRR(5) |
Base Case(2) ( | ~12 months | 73 % | |
~11 months | 82 % | ||
~10 months | 94 % | ||
~7 months | 128 % | ||
(1) | Estimated project economics reflect Updated Capex, as described herein. All other costs and production estimates are consistent with the 2023 Phoenix FS and economic results are shown from the point in time in which a FID is made and thus excludes pre-FID expenditures. Denison assumes FID occurs at the end of February 2026. |
(2) | The Phoenix FS used a base case uranium selling price derived from UxC based on "Composite Midpoint" constant dollar scenario from UxC's Q2'2023 Uranium Market Outlook ("UMO"). The equivalent base case price scenario is derived from the Q4'2025 UMO. |
(3) | Long-Term pricing of |
(4) | Payback period is stated as number of months to payback post-FID initial capital expenditures from the start of uranium production. |
(5) | Post-tax NPV, IRR and payback period are based on the "adjusted post-tax" scenario in the 2023 Phoenix FS, which includes the benefit of certain entity level tax attributes which are expected to be available and used to reduce taxable income from the |
All amounts are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted and computed using the same foreign exchange rate assumptions as used in the 2023 Phoenix FS (i.e. a US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate of 1.35).
About Wheeler River
Wheeler River is the largest undeveloped uranium project in the infrastructure-rich eastern portion of the
About Denison
Denison is a leading uranium mining, development, and exploration company with interests focused in the
Additionally, through its
In 2024, Denison celebrated its 70th year in uranium mining, exploration, and development, which began in 1954 with Denison's first acquisition of mining claims in the
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Technical Disclosure and Qualified Person
The technical information contained in this press release has been reviewed and approved by Chad Sorba, P.Geo., Denison's Vice President Technical Services & Project Evaluation, who is a Qualified Person in accordance with the requirements of NI 43-101.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain information contained in this news release constitutes 'forward-looking information', within the meaning of the applicable
In particular, this news release contains forward-looking information pertaining to Denison's current expectations, intentions and objectives with respect to
Forward looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made, and they are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Denison to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For example, the results and underlying assumptions and interpretations of its technical studies and cost forecasting may not be maintained after further testing, procurement, or operations, or be representative of actual conditions at the Project or within the applicable deposits. In addition, Denison may decide or otherwise be required to discontinue testing, evaluation and other work on the Company's other properties if it is unable to maintain or otherwise secure the necessary resources (such as testing facilities, capital funding, joint venture approvals, regulatory approvals, etc.). Denison believes that the expectations reflected in this forward-looking information are reasonable but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be accurate and results may differ materially from those anticipated in this forward-looking information. For a discussion in respect of risks and other factors that could influence forward-looking events, please refer to the factors discussed in Denison's Annual Information Form dated March 28, 2025 under the heading 'Risk Factors' or in subsequent quarterly financial reports. These factors are not, and should not be construed as being, exhaustive.
Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Any forward-looking information and the assumptions made with respect thereto speaks only as of the date of this news release. Denison does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information after the date of this news release to conform such information to actual results or to changes in Denison's expectations except as otherwise required by applicable legislation.
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SOURCE Denison Mines Corp.