Ericsson Mobility Report: early movers pursue performance-based business models

Rhea-AI Summary

Ericsson's November 2024 Mobility Report projects significant growth in 5G adoption and mobile network traffic through 2030. The report forecasts 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions by 2030, with 60% being 5G Standalone (SA). Mobile network traffic is expected to grow almost 200% between 2024 and 2030, with 5G networks carrying 80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues expanding globally as the second-largest 5G use case, with 80% of projected 350 million FWA connections by 2030 expected over 5G. The report emphasizes how early-mover service providers are implementing value-based business models focused on differentiated connectivity rather than data volume.

Positive

• Projected growth to 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions by 2030
• Mobile network traffic expected to grow 200% by 2030
• 5G networks to carry 80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030
• FWA connections projected to reach 350 million by 2030
• 5G subscription numbers expected to overtake 4G during 2027

Negative

• Declining rate of mobile network traffic data growth (21% year-on-year for 2024)
• Only 30% of global sites currently deployed with 5G mid-band (excluding China)
• Less than 20% of CSPs offering commercial 5G services are 5G SA

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The latest Ericsson Mobility Report reveals significant growth trajectories and strategic shifts in the telecom industry. The projected 200% increase in mobile network data traffic by 2030 and forecast of 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions present substantial revenue opportunities. The transition to value-based pricing models, moving away from data volume-based pricing, signals a fundamental shift in monetization strategies.

Key market indicators show strong growth potential:

• 5G networks expected to carry 80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030
• FWA adoption increasing with 43% of providers offering speed-based tariffs
• Only 30% deployment of 5G mid-band globally (excluding China) indicates significant room for infrastructure expansion

The shift toward 5G SA and performance-based business models could drive higher profit margins compared to traditional volume-based pricing, potentially improving Ericsson's revenue quality.

Tech Expert

The technological evolution outlined in the report highlights critical infrastructure developments. The low 20% adoption rate of 5G SA among providers represents a substantial growth opportunity for Ericsson's infrastructure business. The emphasis on network slicing and differentiated connectivity capabilities positions Ericsson favorably in the high-value enterprise segment.

The integration of AI and generative AI applications introduces new technical requirements that could accelerate network upgrades and equipment sales. The projected transition from 4G to 5G dominance by 2027, coupled with early 6G deployment plans for 2030, establishes a clear technology roadmap that should drive sustained demand for Ericsson's solutions.

• Global mobile network data traffic projected to grow almost 200 percent between 2024 and the end of 2030
• 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 - of which 60 percent are expected to be 5G SA
• Report includes case studies from T-Mobile (U.S.A.), Elisa (Finland), and stc (KSA)

STOCKHOLM, Nov. 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centered on value delivery rather than data volume. The analysis is included among a wealth of statistical network insights in the November 2024 edition of the Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) Mobility Report, which extends the forecast period until the end of 2030.

While the rate of mobile network traffic data growth is declining - estimated at 21 percent year-on year for 2024 - it is still expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.

The report highlights how early-mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity - guaranteed uninterrupted high-end connectivity when you need it most - to create new monetization and growth opportunities. Related case studies from T-Mobile in the U.S. and Elisa in Finland are included.

Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President, Head of Business Area Networks, Ericsson, says: "Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves. This is highlighted in the November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report, which includes detailed analysis, statistical insights, and customer use cases. The shift towards high-performing programmable networks, enabled by openness and cloud, will empower service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, not merely data volume. This report offers valuable insights into what our industry can achieve and the steps necessary to get there."

The report underlines the global potential for differentiated connectivity development by highlighting that, beyond China, 5G mid-band is currently only deployed at about 30 percent of sites globally.

Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, less than 20 percent are 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalize on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities.

Almost 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.

On global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are expected to carry about 80 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030 - compared to 34 percent by the end of 2024.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).

In four out of six regions, more than 80 percent of CSPs now offer FWA. The number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans - with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fiber offerings - has increased from 30 percent to 43 percent in the last year alone.

Western Europe has witnessed rapid growth in FWA speed-based offerings with 52 percent of CSPs in the region now doing so compared to 32 percent a year ago. Europe alone accounts for 73 percent of all 5G FWA launches globally in the past 12 months.

Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, almost 80 percent are forecast to be over 5G.

The report also addresses how AI, including Generative AI Applications - already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products - could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.

Other featured report statistics include the projection that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.

The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.

The 40-page report includes three case study articles:

• T-Mobile takes network slicing from pilots to real-world scenarios (with T-Mobile in the U.S. About network slicing use cases.)
• Premium FWA services enabled in Finland with 5G SA (with Elisa in Finland. About Elisa's 5G SA FWA offering.)
• A multi-New Radio (NR) carrier strategy for best performance (with stc in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Ericsson will host Ericsson Mobility Report online seminars at 09.00 (CET) and at 18.00 (CET) on Tuesday, December 3. To join please register via this link.

Read the full November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report via this link.

Based on unique Ericsson and partner network insights, the Ericsson Mobility Report has been the key industry reference for network data, performance, statistics, and forecasts since its launch in 2011.

NOTES TO EDITORS:

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ABOUT ERICSSON

Ericsson's high-performing, programmable networks provide connectivity for billions of people every day. For nearly 150 years, we've been pioneers in creating technology for communication. We offer mobile communication and connectivity solutions for service providers and enterprises. Together with our customers and partners, we make the digital world of tomorrow a reality. www.ericsson.com

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SOURCE Ericsson

FAQ

What is Ericsson's (ERIC) forecast for global 5G subscriptions by 2030?

Ericsson forecasts 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions by 2030, with 60% expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.

How much will mobile network traffic grow according to Ericsson's (ERIC) November 2024 report?

Mobile network traffic is projected to grow almost 200% between 2024 and the end of 2030.

What percentage of mobile data traffic will 5G networks carry by 2030 according to Ericsson (ERIC)?

5G networks are expected to carry about 80% of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030, compared to 34% by the end of 2024.

When will 5G subscriptions overtake 4G according to Ericsson's (ERIC) report?

5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.