NEW REPORT: Utility-Generated Power Can Save Customers $20B, Reduce Risks of Outages

Key Terms

pjm technical

PJM is the large regional operator that coordinates the flow of electricity and runs the wholesale power markets across parts of the eastern and midwestern United States. Think of it as an air-traffic controller for electricity: it balances supply and demand in real time, schedules power plants and transmission, and sets market-clearing prices — all of which affect utility revenues, fuel costs, project economics and investor returns in energy and infrastructure sectors.

capacity market prices financial

Capacity market prices are the payments set in electricity markets for guaranteeing that enough power-generating capacity will be available in the future; think of them as reservation fees paid to power plants and other providers to be on standby when demand spikes. They matter to investors because these prices create a predictable revenue stream for generators and grid services, affecting profitability, asset values and investment decisions in the energy sector.

production cost modeling technical

Production cost modeling is the process of estimating how much it will cost to make a product or deliver a service by adding up expected expenses for materials, labor, equipment, energy and overhead under different scenarios. It matters to investors because those estimates show likely profit margins, pricing flexibility and capital needs—similar to a detailed household budget that reveals whether a project stays affordable if prices or output change.

probabilistic loss-of-load modeling technical

A probabilistic loss-of-load model estimates the chance that an electricity system will fail to meet demand by simulating many possible future scenarios—accounting for variable weather, equipment failures, demand swings and generation outages—rather than assuming a single outcome. For investors, it quantifies reliability risk like a probability of blackouts or curtailed sales, helping assess potential revenue shortfalls, reserve needs, regulatory exposure and the value of backup capacity or grid investments, much as running many dice rolls reveals the odds of rare bad outcomes.

Independent analysis from energy experts at Charles River Associates shows that allowing public utility companies to generate energy would address supply and demand issues at heart of high energy costs

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- A new independent analysis by experts at Charles River Associates (CRA) finds that expanding utility-generated energy can significantly lower customer costs and improve electric reliability. This is an especially important insight as energy demand accelerates across the country, particularly in the PJM region, where Exelon’s public utility companies operate.

The report, Utility-Owned Generation as a Solution: An Analysis of Economic & Reliability Impacts of Increased State-Regulated Generation in PJM Delivery Year 2028/29, examines how utility-generated power can be a solution to affordably and reliably meeting the challenges of growing electricity demand, generator retirements, and market constraints. The analysis finds that a greater role for utility-generated, state-regulated power could deliver $9.6 billion to $20.0 billion in customer savings in a single year while reducing the risk of power outages from energy shortages by approximately 85%.

The report arrives amid heightened national concern over energy affordability — driven by data center needs, continued electrification, and tightening supply — and growing questions about whether current market structures alone can deliver affordable, reliable power at the pace customers need.

“Customers are understandably frustrated about high energy costs and public utility companies are ready to help bring them under control with utility-generated power such as battery storage or community solar,” said Colette Honorable, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, Compliance and Corporate Secretary of Exelon. “Utility-generated power will ensure we have enough electricity to meet skyrocketing demand, address affordability, and make sure customers come first.”

The analysis compares a “business-as-usual” scenario — relying primarily on market-driven generation — with an alternative scenario in which states allow utilities to plan and develop additional generation under regulatory oversight. The results show that utility-generated power reduces both energy and capacity costs by easing supply constraints and supporting use of new, efficient technologies, while also improving system reliability.

Key findings from the report include:

• Lower customer electric supply costs: Utility-generated power could reduce total PJM customer costs by $9.6–$20.0 billion in the 2028–2029 delivery year.
• Improved reliability: The analysis shows an 85% reduction in supply-caused expected unserved energy, significantly lowering the severity and duration of potential outages.
• Greater price stability: The utility-generated power reduces exposure to volatile capacity market prices and high prices that reflect generation shortages.
• Stronger alignment with state goals: Utility-generated power allows states to plan resources deliberately, balancing affordability, reliability, and evolving policy objectives.

The report is especially relevant for states like Maryland, where rapid load growth and constrained supply are intensifying affordability and reliability challenges. The findings underscore how utility-generated power can play a critical role in addressing pressures across the region that directly affect customers.

The study was conducted independently by energy experts from CRA using publicly available material and established modeling tools. While commissioned by Exelon, the conclusions reflect the authors’ independent analysis.

“Utility-owned generation is already a critical component of ensuring affordability and reliability in PJM, it’s just isolated to a subset of PJM states,” said Jeff Plewes, co-author of the report and Principal at Charles River Associates. “If it had previously been expanded, it could have saved customers billions of dollars in supply costs, materially reduced expected outages by 2028, and set a clearer path to meeting state targets for battery storage.”

“The PJM markets are simply not prepared to affordably deliver a sufficient supply response to drastic demand growth,” said Michael Kline, co-author of the report and Principal at Charles River Associates. “The path forward must involve a well-planned and bold response. Electric utilities are offering a solution that we show has clear benefits over business as usual in PJM.”

Follow this link to read the full report.

Methodology

Charles River Associates analyzed projected PJM system conditions for the 2028–2029 delivery year, comparing a “Business as Usual” scenario with a hypothetical “Planned Utility Resources” that includes additional utility-owned generation developed under state regulatory oversight. The analysis evaluated impacts on energy prices, capacity market prices, and system reliability using production cost modeling, capacity market simulations, and probabilistic loss-of-load modeling. All conclusions are based on independent research and publicly available data.

Exelon (Nasdaq: EXC) is a Fortune 200 company and one of the nation’s largest utility companies, serving more than 10.9 million customers through six fully regulated transmission and distribution utilities — Atlantic City Electric, BGE, ComEd, Delmarva Power, PECO, and Pepco. Exelon’s 20,000 employees dedicate their time and expertise to supporting our communities through reliable, affordable and efficient energy delivery, workforce development, equity, economic development and volunteerism. Follow @Exelon on LinkedIn.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260206542697/en/

Chris Ford

Corporate Communications

312-394-7417

Christopher.Ford2@exeloncorp.com

Source: Exelon