Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to Launch Predictive Insights Tracking U.S. Retail Supply and Demand
Rhea-AI Summary
Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks (FDX) announced a strategic collaboration to launch the Retail Momentum Index, a near real-time leading indicator of U.S. retail supply and demand. The index combines FedEx Dataworks surface/air shipping data with Dun & Bradstreet maritime volumes, container delays, business signals and location insights. Early results show Q4 2025 year-over-year momentum improved to -10.3% from -21.0% in Q4 2024 and large declines in returns volumes, while credit health improved after three Fed rate cuts in 2025. The index will benchmark to the Advance Monthly Retail Sales series and aims to detect inflection points before government reports.
Positive
- YoY retail momentum improved to -10.3% in Q4 2025 from -21.0% in Q4 2024
- Integration of multi-modal data provides near real-time view of U.S. retail supply and demand
- Credit health of U.S. retail businesses improved meaningfully after three 2025 rate cuts
Negative
- Returns volumes fell sharply: -38.4% (2023–24) and -54.5% (2024–25)
- Retail activity remained soft through 2025 holiday season with seasonal late-year volatility
- Policy and tariff uncertainty in 2025 weakened retail momentum through Q2–Q3
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
FDX was up 2.58%, while peers were mixed: UPS (+3.31%), JBHT (+3.51%), EXPD (+1.49%), ZTO (+0.62%), and CHRW (-1.43%). With no peers in the momentum scanner and mixed moves, trading appeared more company-specific than a broad sector rotation.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 02 | AI logistics tools | Positive | +4.0% | Launch of AI-powered FedEx Tracking+ and Returns+ post-purchase solutions. |
| Jan 27 | Debt offering pricing | Neutral | +0.7% | Pricing of $3.7B senior notes for planned FedEx Freight spin-off. |
| Jan 27 | Management change | Positive | +2.6% | Appointment of Scott Ray as COO for U.S. and Canada Surface Operations. |
| Jan 23 | Spin-off financing | Neutral | -1.8% | Launch of FedEx Freight senior notes offering to finance spin-off. |
| Jan 16 | Board appointments | Positive | -1.6% | Announcement of ten-member board for future independent FedEx Freight. |
Recent FedEx headlines, including AI-enabled services and spin-off financing steps, have more often seen share price gains, though spin-off related news has shown occasional negative reactions.
Over the last few weeks, FedEx has reported several strategic and structural developments. On Jan 16, 2026, it detailed the future FedEx Freight board and spin-off plans. On Jan 23 and Jan 27, it announced and priced senior notes linked to that spin-off. Leadership changes for Surface Operations were disclosed on Jan 27, and on Feb 2 FedEx launched AI-powered post‑purchase tools. Today’s data collaboration extends its analytics-driven offerings and complements this broader transformation.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement highlights a strategic data collaboration between FedEx Dataworks and Dun & Bradstreet to create the Retail Momentum Index, blending shipping and business intelligence to track U.S. retail conditions. Early readings show improved credit health and sharply smaller average declines of 10.3% in Q4 2025 versus 21.0% in Q4 2024. Investors may watch how these insights support FedEx’s broader analytics strategy and how closely the index anticipates official retail data.
Key Terms
advance monthly retail sales and food services series technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
The Retail Momentum Index is designed to act as a leading indicator of retail trade activity in
The first solution to launch will be the Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks Retail Momentum Index, which fills critical information gaps in retail trade for business and financial decision-makers globally. The Retail Momentum Index will integrate FedEx Dataworks' surface and air shipping data with Dun & Bradstreet's maritime shipping volumes and container delays data, business activity signals, and business entity characteristics, as well as industry and location insights.
Together, these signals will provide a near real-time view of
"Businesses around the world rely on Dun & Bradstreet's supply chain insights to navigate risk in a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape," said Alex Zuck, general manager of risk at Dun & Bradstreet. "Through our deepening collaboration with FedEx Dataworks, we are turning data into signals and signals into insights that ultimately help illuminate risks before they become disruptions."
"FedEx has long been regarded as a bellwether for the global economy, and now through FedEx Dataworks we are fusing insights with Dun & Bradstreet's to unlock an unmatched source of economic verity for decision-makers across industries," said Tony Kreager, enterprise vice president, information technology, chief engineering and commercial officer, FedEx Dataworks. "By pairing physical movement data with rich business context, we are creating intelligence that reflects how the economy is actually moving—not how it looked weeks ago."
Early insights from the soon-to-be-released Retail Momentum Index reveal retail activity remained soft through the 2025 holiday season, but data shows clear signs of stabilization. In addition, the index shows the credit health of
Key insights from the Retail Momentum Index include:
- An early indication of retail momentum, ahead of lagging economic data like the Advance Retail Sales report from the
U.S. Census Bureau, which is a common indicator of GDP. - While year-over-year momentum was still negative in Q4 2025, the average decline improved sharply to
10.3% , compared to21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a meaningful slowdown in contraction. - Returns volumes continued to fall significantly, declining an average of
38.4% from 2023–24 and54.5% from 2024–25, pointing to improved demand quality and more disciplined discretionary spending by consumers and businesses. - Policy uncertainty weighed on performance throughout the year. Following tariff expansions in April 2025, retail momentum weakened through Q2 and Q3. While tariffs easing later in the year helped stabilize conditions, the late year pickup appears largely seasonal as momentum softened again in December.
- Looking ahead, indicators suggest retail activity is likely to remain broadly stable through at least the first half of 2026, barring major regulatory or policy changes.
The upcoming launch of the Retail Momentum Index marks the start of an expanding collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to develop additional joint insights for the market ranging from global economic signals to multi-modal supply chain and logistics intelligence.
About Dun & Bradstreet
Dun & Bradstreet enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk, and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit www.dnb.com.
About FedEx Corp.
FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) provides customers and businesses worldwide with a broad portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. With annual revenue of
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SOURCE Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
FAQ
What is the Retail Momentum Index launched by Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks (FDX)?
How did the Retail Momentum Index measure Q4 2025 retail performance for FDX partners?
What do the Retail Momentum Index returns volume figures mean for investors in FDX supply data products?
Will the Retail Momentum Index affect how investors use FedEx Dataworks (FDX) data?
What near-term outlook does the Retail Momentum Index give for U.S. retail into 2026?
