Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to Launch Predictive Insights Tracking U.S. Retail Supply and Demand

Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks (FDX) announced a strategic collaboration to launch the Retail Momentum Index, a near real-time leading indicator of U.S. retail supply and demand.

Rhea-AI Summary

Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks (FDX) announced a strategic collaboration to launch the Retail Momentum Index, a near real-time leading indicator of U.S. retail supply and demand. The index combines FedEx Dataworks surface/air shipping data with Dun & Bradstreet maritime volumes, container delays, business signals and location insights. Early results show Q4 2025 year-over-year momentum improved to -10.3% from -21.0% in Q4 2024 and large declines in returns volumes, while credit health improved after three Fed rate cuts in 2025. The index will benchmark to the Advance Monthly Retail Sales series and aims to detect inflection points before government reports.

Positive

• YoY retail momentum improved to -10.3% in Q4 2025 from -21.0% in Q4 2024
• Integration of multi-modal data provides near real-time view of U.S. retail supply and demand
• Credit health of U.S. retail businesses improved meaningfully after three 2025 rate cuts

Negative

• Returns volumes fell sharply: -38.4% (2023–24) and -54.5% (2024–25)
• Retail activity remained soft through 2025 holiday season with seasonal late-year volatility
• Policy and tariff uncertainty in 2025 weakened retail momentum through Q2–Q3

Argus Feb 6 session

+1.45% close to close Open Argus

Details

News Market Reaction – FDX

On Feb 6, the first trading day after this news, FDX closed 1.45% above the previous close.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus for the Feb 6 session.

Key Figures

Q4 2025 retail momentum decline: 10.3% Q4 2024 retail momentum decline: 21.0% Returns volume decline 2023–24: 38.4% +5 more

Q4 2025 retail momentum decline

10.3%

Average year-over-year decline in Retail Momentum Index, Q4 2025

Q4 2024 retail momentum decline

21.0%

Average year-over-year decline in Retail Momentum Index, Q4 2024

Returns volume decline 2023–24

38.4%

Average decline in returns volumes from 2023–24

Returns volume decline 2024–25

54.5%

Average decline in returns volumes from 2024–25

Federal Reserve rate cuts

3

Number of interest rate cuts in 2025 noted as aiding credit health

Retail momentum in Q4 2025

Negative year-over-year

Retail Momentum Index year-over-year trend in Q4 2025

FDX price change

2.58%

FDX 24h price change before publication on Feb 5, 2026

Distance to 52-week high

0.73%

FDX trading below 52-week high prior to article

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 02

5 events

1. Feb 02

   AI logistics tools

   24h Move

   +4.0%

   Launch of AI-powered FedEx Tracking+ and Returns+ post-purchase solutions.

2. Jan 27

   Debt offering pricing

   24h Move

   +0.7%

   Pricing of $3.7B senior notes for planned FedEx Freight spin-off.

3. Jan 27

   Management change

   24h Move

   +2.6%

   Appointment of Scott Ray as COO for U.S. and Canada Surface Operations.

4. Jan 23

   Spin-off financing

   24h Move

   -1.8%

   Launch of FedEx Freight senior notes offering to finance spin-off.

5. Jan 16

   Board appointments

   24h Move

   -1.6%

   Announcement of ten-member board for future independent FedEx Freight.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

advance monthly retail sales and food services series

1 terms

advance monthly retail sales and food services series technical

"The Retail Momentum Index will use adjusted monthly returns from the Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services series published by the U.S. Census Bureau as its benchmark."

A government-issued early estimate of total sales at stores, online retailers and eating/drinking places for a given month. Think of it as a quick snapshot of how much consumers are spending—like a monthly thermometer for shopping and dining—and investors use it to gauge demand, company revenue trends, inflation pressure and the broader economy’s strength before more detailed data arrive.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

See more from StockTitan in Google Search and AI answers. Adds StockTitan as a preferred source · opens Google

Add on Google Not now

The Retail Momentum Index is designed to act as a leading indicator of retail trade activity in the United States.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. and MEMPHIS, Tenn., Feb. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Dun & Bradstreet, the company that provides the knowledge graph powering global commerce, and FedEx Dataworks, the insights and intelligence platform moving FedEx beyond transportation, today announced a strategic collaboration to create new data and analytics solutions. By combining vast amounts of shipping intelligence and proprietary business data, businesses will gain the most comprehensive view of their supplier network and company relationships across all shipment types, turning what was once invisible into a powerful tool to predict and identify risk, respond faster, and build true resilience.

The first solution to launch will be the Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks Retail Momentum Index, which fills critical information gaps in retail trade for business and financial decision-makers globally. The Retail Momentum Index will integrate FedEx Dataworks' surface and air shipping data with Dun & Bradstreet's maritime shipping volumes and container delays data, business activity signals, and business entity characteristics, as well as industry and location insights.

Together, these signals will provide a near real-time view of U.S. retail momentum across both supply and demand, allowing decision-makers to detect inflection points before they appear in traditional government reports such as monthly retail sales or inventory data. The Retail Momentum Index will use adjusted monthly returns from the Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services series published by the U.S. Census Bureau as its benchmark.

"Businesses around the world rely on Dun & Bradstreet's supply chain insights to navigate risk in a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape," said Alex Zuck, general manager of risk at Dun & Bradstreet. "Through our deepening collaboration with FedEx Dataworks, we are turning data into signals and signals into insights that ultimately help illuminate risks before they become disruptions."  

"FedEx has long been regarded as a bellwether for the global economy, and now through FedEx Dataworks we are fusing insights with Dun & Bradstreet's to unlock an unmatched source of economic verity for decision-makers across industries," said Tony Kreager, enterprise vice president, information technology, chief engineering and commercial officer, FedEx Dataworks. "By pairing physical movement data with rich business context, we are creating intelligence that reflects how the economy is actually moving—not how it looked weeks ago." 

Early insights from the soon-to-be-released Retail Momentum Index reveal retail activity remained soft through the 2025 holiday season, but data shows clear signs of stabilization. In addition, the index shows the credit health of U.S. retail businesses has improved meaningfully as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three times in 2025.

Key insights from the Retail Momentum Index include:

• An early indication of retail momentum, ahead of lagging economic data like the Advance Retail Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, which is a common indicator of GDP.
  
  
• While year-over-year momentum was still negative in Q4 2025, the average decline improved sharply to 10.3%, compared to 21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a meaningful slowdown in contraction.
  
  
• Returns volumes continued to fall significantly, declining an average of 38.4% from 2023–24 and 54.5% from 2024–25, pointing to improved demand quality and more disciplined discretionary spending by consumers and businesses.
  
  
• Policy uncertainty weighed on performance throughout the year. Following tariff expansions in April 2025, retail momentum weakened through Q2 and Q3. While tariffs easing later in the year helped stabilize conditions, the late year pickup appears largely seasonal as momentum softened again in December.
  
  
• Looking ahead, indicators suggest retail activity is likely to remain broadly stable through at least the first half of 2026, barring major regulatory or policy changes.

The upcoming launch of the Retail Momentum Index marks the start of an expanding collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks to develop additional joint insights for the market ranging from global economic signals to multi-modal supply chain and logistics intelligence.

About Dun & Bradstreet

Dun & Bradstreet enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk, and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit www.dnb.com.

About FedEx Corp.

FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) provides customers and businesses worldwide with a broad portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. With annual revenue of $90 billion, the company offers integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible, efficient, and intelligent global network. Consistently ranked among the world's most admired and trusted employers, FedEx inspires its more than 500,000 employees to remain focused on safety, the highest ethical and professional standards, and the needs of their customers and communities. FedEx is committed to connecting people and possibilities around the world responsibly and resourcefully, with a goal to achieve carbon-neutral operations by 2040. To learn more, please visit fedex.com/about.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dun--bradstreet-and-fedex-dataworks-to-launch-predictive-insights-tracking-us-retail-supply-and-demand-302680654.html

SOURCE Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What is the Retail Momentum Index launched by Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks (FDX)?

It is a near real-time leading indicator of U.S. retail supply and demand combining shipping and business signals. According to Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, it blends FedEx surface/air data with maritime volumes, container delays, and business activity signals to detect inflection points ahead of official reports.

How did the Retail Momentum Index measure Q4 2025 retail performance for FDX partners?

Q4 2025 year-over-year momentum improved but stayed negative at -10.3%. According to Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, this compares with -21.0% in Q4 2024, indicating a meaningful slowdown in contraction though not a full recovery.

What do the Retail Momentum Index returns volume figures mean for investors in FDX supply data products?

Returns volumes declined sharply, signaling weaker returns activity but potentially healthier demand quality. According to Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, returns fell an average 38.4% (2023–24) and 54.5% (2024–25), pointing to disciplined discretionary spending.

Will the Retail Momentum Index affect how investors use FedEx Dataworks (FDX) data?

Yes—investors can use it as an early signal of retail trends ahead of government reports. According to Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, the index is benchmarked to the Advance Monthly Retail Sales series to help identify inflection points earlier.

What near-term outlook does the Retail Momentum Index give for U.S. retail into 2026?

Indicators suggest retail activity is likely to remain broadly stable through the first half of 2026 absent major policy changes. According to Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks, stabilization followed late-2025 seasonal pickup and tariff easing, but risks remain from policy shifts.