Gemini Receives US License for Prediction Markets

Rhea-AI Summary

Gemini (NASDAQ:GEMI) announced that affiliate Gemini Titan received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC on Dec 10, 2025, enabling Gemini to offer U.S. prediction markets. Gemini first applied for a DCM on Mar 10, 2020, marking a roughly 5-year licensing process.

U.S. customers will soon trade simple yes/no event contracts with USD balances on Gemini’s web interface, with mobile trading to follow. Gemini Titan may later explore crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. customers.

Positive

• CFTC DCM license received on Dec 10, 2025
• Applied for DCM on Mar 10, 2020 after ~5-year review
• Permits offering of prediction markets to U.S. customers
• Web trading with USD for event contracts available shortly

Negative

• None.

News Market Reaction

-0.70% 5.5x vol

81 alerts

-0.70% News Effect

+39.3% Peak Tracked

-3.3% Trough Tracked

-$13M Valuation Impact

$1.81B Market Cap

5.5x Rel. Volume

On the day this news was published, GEMI declined 0.70%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction. Argus tracked a peak move of +39.3% during that session. Argus tracked a trough of -3.3% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 81 alerts that day, indicating high trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $13M from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $1.81B at that time. Trading volume was exceptionally heavy at 5.5x the daily average, suggesting significant selling pressure.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

DCM application date: March 10, 2020 Licensing duration: 5 years Bitcoin price event level: $200,000 +3 more

6 metrics

DCM application date March 10, 2020 Initial Designated Contract Market license application to CFTC

Licensing duration 5 years Time from DCM application to CFTC approval

Bitcoin price event level $200,000 Threshold in example prediction market question

EC fine amount $140 million Size of example European Commission fine question for X

Future year reference 2026 Year referenced in example prediction market question

Popularity period last decade Timeframe over which crypto perps gained traction

Market Reality Check

Price: $8.34 Vol: Volume 1,220,096 shares v...

low vol

$8.34 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,220,096 shares vs 20-day average 2,098,624 shares ahead of the license news. low

Technical Shares trade below the $18.75 200-day MA, with price at $11.36 before this announcement.

Peers on Argus

GEMI was up 1.87% while a momentum-screened peer, SOS, was down 6.02%, and broad...

1 Down

GEMI was up 1.87% while a momentum-screened peer, SOS, was down 6.02%, and broader peers showed mixed moves, pointing to a stock-specific reaction rather than a sector-wide move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Dec 08 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 08	Conference participation	Neutral	-1.9%	Announcement of participation in Goldman Sachs 2025 Financial Services Conference.
Nov 14	Conference participation	Neutral	-8.5%	Disclosure of attendance at Citi’s 14th Annual FinTech Conference.
Nov 10	Earnings results	Neutral	+4.1%	Release of Q3 2025 results and shareholder letter with earnings call.
Oct 16	Earnings scheduling	Neutral	-4.1%	Scheduling announcement for Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call.
Sep 15	IPO completion	Neutral	+1.6%	Completion of IPO and full exercise of underwriters’ option to buy extra shares.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has mostly been conference participation, earnings updates, and IPO milestones, with relatively modest and mixed price moves around these events.

Recent Company History

Over the last six months, Gemini’s key events included its IPO closing on Sep 15, 2025, third-quarter results on Nov 10, 2025, and multiple conference appearances in October, November, and December. Price reactions ranged from a -8.54% pullback after a conference announcement to a 4.08% rise on Q3 results. Today’s CFTC license news adds a new regulatory and product milestone to this sequence of primarily investor-relations focused updates.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights Gemini’s receipt of a CFTC Designated Contract Market license, allowing...

Analysis

This announcement highlights Gemini’s receipt of a CFTC Designated Contract Market license, allowing U.S. customers to trade prediction-market event contracts and potentially, over time, crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. Investors may track how quickly these products launch, user adoption through the web and mobile platforms, and any follow-on regulatory disclosures. Comparing progress to earlier milestones like the 2025 IPO and Q3 results can help gauge how material this expansion becomes over time.

Key Terms

designated contract market, commodity futures trading commission, prediction markets, event contracts, +2 more

6 terms

designated contract market regulatory

"received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the Commodity"

A designated contract market is a regulated, public exchange where standardized futures and options contracts are bought and sold, similar to a supervised marketplace with clear rules and a referee to enforce them. It matters to investors because trading on such an exchange provides transparent prices, predictable contract terms and built‑in safeguards that reduce counterparty risk, making it easier to assess value and execute trades reliably.

commodity futures trading commission regulatory

"license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which will"

A U.S. federal agency that oversees trading in futures, options and swap contracts—agreements to buy or sell assets at a later date. It writes and enforces rules, monitors markets for fraud and manipulation, and requires reporting so prices reflect real supply and demand. Think of it as a referee and rulebook keeper for complex financial markets: its oversight helps investors trust market prices and reduces the risk of abrupt disruptions.

prediction markets financial

"allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers."

Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event, effectively turning collective beliefs into a price that reflects the market’s estimated probability. Like a sports betting line or a crowd-sourced weather forecast, they aggregate diverse information and sentiment into a single, continuously updated signal that investors can use to gauge market expectations, inform timing, assess risk, or construct hedges.

event contracts financial

"by offering event contracts that are simple yes or no questions"

Contracts whose payment or settlement depends solely on whether a specific, predefined event happens or not — for example a drug approval, a corporate takeover, a loan default, or a weather disaster. Think of them like a focused bet or insurance policy: investors can use them to take a targeted position, hedge exposure, or speculate on an outcome without owning the underlying company, and their results can rapidly change an investor’s gains, losses and risk profile when the event occurs.

perpetual contracts financial

"include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts or perps."

A perpetual contract is a financial agreement that lets traders bet on the future price of an asset without any set expiry date; unlike a standard futures contract, it can be held indefinitely. It matters to investors because it provides continuous, often highly leveraged exposure to an asset’s price — like keeping an open tab where small periodic payments are made to keep the position active — which can amplify gains but also increase the risk of large losses and forced liquidation.

perps financial

"perpetual contracts or perps. Perps are the most widely traded"

Perps are perpetual securities that pay regular interest or dividends but have no fixed maturity date, meaning the issuer does not have to repay the principal on a set date. Think of them as a loan that can run indefinitely — investors receive ongoing income but face the risk that payments could stop if the issuer runs into trouble, and the instrument may be callable by the issuer. They matter to investors because perps can offer higher yields than standard bonds but also carry greater credit, interest-rate and structural risks and can affect a company’s balance sheet and cost of capital.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Acting Chairman Pham Continues To Carry Out President Trump’s Mandate To Make America the Crypto Capital of the World

NEW YORK, Dec. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, Gemini Space Station, Inc. (Gemini) (NASDAQ:GEMI) announced that Gemini Titan, LLC (Titan), an affiliate, received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.

Gemini first applied for a DCM license on March 10, 2020. “Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini," remarked Gemini’s CEO Tyler Winklevoss. “We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto and Acting Chairman Pham for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world. It's incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America.”

Gemini Titan plans to enter into the prediction markets space by offering event contracts that are simple yes or no questions on future events. For example, “Will 1 bitcoin end this year higher than $200k?” Yes or no. Or, “Will Elon Musk’s X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?” Yes or no.

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President. ”Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro business, pro innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”

Starting shortly, Gemini customers in the United States will be able to participate in prediction markets by trading event contracts on Gemini’s web interface using the USD in their Gemini account. Trading event contracts via the Gemini mobile app will be available soon.

In the future, Gemini Titan will explore expanding its derivatives offering for US customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts or perps. Perps are the most widely traded derivatives contracts in the crypto industry, having gained huge popularity and traction in Asia and other non-US jurisdictions over the last decade. Gemini Titan looks forward to exploring bringing these innovative and highly liquid contracts to America.

Prediction markets leverage the wisdom of the crowd and the power of markets to more accurately forecast the future. They reward market participants for their truthful insights and also help them to better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating more correct information. The move into this nascent and burgeoning frontier continues Gemini’s march towards building a one-stop financial super app for customers.

Channels for Disclosure of Information

Going forward, we intend to announce material information to the public through filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the investor relations page on our website (investors.gemini.com), the blog on our website (www.gemini.com/blog), press releases, public conference calls, public webcasts, our X account (@gemini), and our LinkedIn page. The information disclosed in the foregoing channels could be deemed to be material information. As such, we encourage investors, the media, and others to follow the channels listed above and to review the information disclosed through such channels. Any updates to the list of disclosure channels through which we will announce information will be posted on the investor relations page on our website.

About Gemini

Gemini (NASDAQ: GEMI) is a global crypto platform founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in 2014. Gemini offers a wide range of crypto products and services for individuals and institutions in over 60 countries. Gemini's simple, reliable, and secure products are built to unlock the next era of financial, creative, and personal freedom.

Contact

Investors

Gemini Investor Relations
Email: investors@gemini.com

Press

Natalie Rix
Email: press@gemini.com

FAQ

What does the CFTC DCM license mean for Gemini (GEMI)?

The DCM license allows Gemini Titan to list and operate prediction market event contracts for U.S. customers.

When did Gemini receive the DCM license and how long was the review?

Gemini Titan received the license on Dec 10, 2025; the company first applied on Mar 10, 2020, a roughly 5-year process.

How can U.S. customers trade Gemini prediction markets (GEMI)?

Customers will be able to trade yes/no event contracts using USD balances in their Gemini accounts via the web interface; mobile availability is coming soon.

Will Gemini (GEMI) offer crypto futures or perpetuals in the U.S. after this license?

Gemini Titan said it will explore adding futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. customers in the future, but no binding timetable was provided.

What types of event contracts will Gemini (GEMI) list first?

Gemini plans to list simple yes/no event contracts on future events (examples cited include bitcoin price outcomes and regulatory fines).

Where will Gemini disclose material updates about these new markets?

Material information will be announced via SEC filings, the investor relations page, company blog, press releases, public webcasts, and company social accounts.