Gemini Receives US License for Prediction Markets

Rhea-AI Summary

Gemini (NASDAQ:GEMI) announced that affiliate Gemini Titan received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC on Dec 10, 2025, enabling Gemini to offer U.S. prediction markets. Gemini first applied for a DCM on Mar 10, 2020, marking a roughly 5-year licensing process.

U.S. customers will soon trade simple yes/no event contracts with USD balances on Gemini’s web interface, with mobile trading to follow. Gemini Titan may later explore crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. customers.

Positive

• CFTC DCM license received on Dec 10, 2025
• Applied for DCM on Mar 10, 2020 after ~5-year review
• Permits offering of prediction markets to U.S. customers
• Web trading with USD for event contracts available shortly

Negative

• None.

Key Figures

DCM application date March 10, 2020 Initial Designated Contract Market license application to CFTC

Licensing duration 5 years Time from DCM application to CFTC approval

Bitcoin price event level $200,000 Threshold in example prediction market question

EC fine amount $140 million Size of example European Commission fine question for X

Future year reference 2026 Year referenced in example prediction market question

Popularity period last decade Timeframe over which crypto perps gained traction

Market Reality Check

$11.36 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,220,096 shares vs 20-day average 2,098,624 shares ahead of the license news. low

Technical Shares trade below the $18.75 200-day MA, with price at $11.36 before this announcement.

Peers on Argus 1 Down

GEMI was up 1.87% while a momentum-screened peer, SOS, was down 6.02%, and broader peers showed mixed moves, pointing to a stock-specific reaction rather than a sector-wide move.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 08	Conference participation	Neutral	-1.9%	Announcement of participation in Goldman Sachs 2025 Financial Services Conference.
Nov 14	Conference participation	Neutral	-8.5%	Disclosure of attendance at Citi’s 14th Annual FinTech Conference.
Nov 10	Earnings results	Neutral	+4.1%	Release of Q3 2025 results and shareholder letter with earnings call.
Oct 16	Earnings scheduling	Neutral	-4.1%	Scheduling announcement for Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call.
Sep 15	IPO completion	Neutral	+1.6%	Completion of IPO and full exercise of underwriters’ option to buy extra shares.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has mostly been conference participation, earnings updates, and IPO milestones, with relatively modest and mixed price moves around these events.

Recent Company History

Over the last six months, Gemini’s key events included its IPO closing on Sep 15, 2025, third-quarter results on Nov 10, 2025, and multiple conference appearances in October, November, and December. Price reactions ranged from a -8.54% pullback after a conference announcement to a 4.08% rise on Q3 results. Today’s CFTC license news adds a new regulatory and product milestone to this sequence of primarily investor-relations focused updates.

Market Pulse Summary

The stock is surging +12.5% following this news. A strong positive reaction aligns with the company securing a CFTC Designated Contract Market license, which enables U.S. prediction markets and potentially broader derivatives products. Historically, reactions to corporate events like earnings and conferences have been modest, despite trading far below the $45.89 52-week high. Investors may weigh execution risks, regulatory oversight of new products, and prior insider selling when assessing the durability of any outsized move.

Key Terms

prediction markets financial

"allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers."

Prediction markets are exchanges where people buy and sell contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event, effectively turning collective beliefs into a price that reflects the market’s estimated probability. Like a sports betting line or a crowd-sourced weather forecast, they aggregate diverse information and sentiment into a single, continuously updated signal that investors can use to gauge market expectations, inform timing, assess risk, or construct hedges.

event contracts financial

"by offering event contracts that are simple yes or no questions"

Contracts whose payment or settlement depends solely on whether a specific, predefined event happens or not — for example a drug approval, a corporate takeover, a loan default, or a weather disaster. Think of them like a focused bet or insurance policy: investors can use them to take a targeted position, hedge exposure, or speculate on an outcome without owning the underlying company, and their results can rapidly change an investor’s gains, losses and risk profile when the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Acting Chairman Pham Continues To Carry Out President Trump’s Mandate To Make America the Crypto Capital of the World

NEW YORK, Dec. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, Gemini Space Station, Inc. (Gemini) (NASDAQ:GEMI) announced that Gemini Titan, LLC (Titan), an affiliate, received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.

Gemini first applied for a DCM license on March 10, 2020. “Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini," remarked Gemini’s CEO Tyler Winklevoss. “We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto and Acting Chairman Pham for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world. It's incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America.”

Gemini Titan plans to enter into the prediction markets space by offering event contracts that are simple yes or no questions on future events. For example, “Will 1 bitcoin end this year higher than $200k?” Yes or no. Or, “Will Elon Musk’s X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?” Yes or no.

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President. ”Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro business, pro innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”

Starting shortly, Gemini customers in the United States will be able to participate in prediction markets by trading event contracts on Gemini’s web interface using the USD in their Gemini account. Trading event contracts via the Gemini mobile app will be available soon.

In the future, Gemini Titan will explore expanding its derivatives offering for US customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts or perps. Perps are the most widely traded derivatives contracts in the crypto industry, having gained huge popularity and traction in Asia and other non-US jurisdictions over the last decade. Gemini Titan looks forward to exploring bringing these innovative and highly liquid contracts to America.

Prediction markets leverage the wisdom of the crowd and the power of markets to more accurately forecast the future. They reward market participants for their truthful insights and also help them to better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating more correct information. The move into this nascent and burgeoning frontier continues Gemini’s march towards building a one-stop financial super app for customers.

Channels for Disclosure of Information

Going forward, we intend to announce material information to the public through filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the investor relations page on our website (investors.gemini.com), the blog on our website (www.gemini.com/blog), press releases, public conference calls, public webcasts, our X account (@gemini), and our LinkedIn page. The information disclosed in the foregoing channels could be deemed to be material information. As such, we encourage investors, the media, and others to follow the channels listed above and to review the information disclosed through such channels. Any updates to the list of disclosure channels through which we will announce information will be posted on the investor relations page on our website.

About Gemini

Gemini (NASDAQ: GEMI) is a global crypto platform founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in 2014. Gemini offers a wide range of crypto products and services for individuals and institutions in over 60 countries. Gemini's simple, reliable, and secure products are built to unlock the next era of financial, creative, and personal freedom.

Contact

Investors

Gemini Investor Relations
Email: investors@gemini.com

Press

Natalie Rix
Email: press@gemini.com

FAQ

What does the CFTC DCM license mean for Gemini (GEMI)?

The DCM license allows Gemini Titan to list and operate prediction market event contracts for U.S. customers.

When did Gemini receive the DCM license and how long was the review?

Gemini Titan received the license on Dec 10, 2025; the company first applied on Mar 10, 2020, a roughly 5-year process.

How can U.S. customers trade Gemini prediction markets (GEMI)?

Customers will be able to trade yes/no event contracts using USD balances in their Gemini accounts via the web interface; mobile availability is coming soon.

Will Gemini (GEMI) offer crypto futures or perpetuals in the U.S. after this license?

Gemini Titan said it will explore adding futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. customers in the future, but no binding timetable was provided.

What types of event contracts will Gemini (GEMI) list first?

Gemini plans to list simple yes/no event contracts on future events (examples cited include bitcoin price outcomes and regulatory fines).

Where will Gemini disclose material updates about these new markets?

Material information will be announced via SEC filings, the investor relations page, company blog, press releases, public webcasts, and company social accounts.