Gevo Provides Business Update, Anticipates Carbon Business to Deliver Over $50 Million of Revenue in 2026

The 2026 carbon revenue outlook includes banked-credit sales, while Gevo expects $30 million annually excluding those credits.

Rhea-AI Summary

Gevo (GEVO) expects its carbon business to generate over $50 million in 2026 revenue, independent of federal tax incentives. Third-quarter sales of essentially all banked Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation credits unlocked approximately $20 million from previously delivered volumes. Excluding those credits, Gevo expects annual carbon revenue of $30 million at current production rates and market conditions. It also sold $70 million worth of 2026 Section 45Z tax credits.

A GND upgrade targeting 10–15% more ethanol capacity and carbon capture is on track for commissioning ahead of schedule in the fourth quarter of 2026. A larger expansion is anticipated to reach a final investment decision that quarter, with completion expected in 2028. It would bring ethanol production to 150 million gallons annually. Gevo believes associated revenues could approximately double, subject to expansion performance, market conditions and carbon monetization pathways.

8 points · 1 major

PositiveiHow this balance works

How this balance works

Rhea-AI gives every point it takes from this document a weight. Minor counts 1, Moderate 3 and Major 9, so one Major point outweighs several Minor ones. The bar adds up the weights on each side, and when neither side holds more than 65% of the total the balance reads Mixed.

It reads the document as published, with the same rules for every company, and it does not look at what the market expected or at how the stock traded, so a point can be objectively good on a day the stock falls.

Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.

How the balance worksHow Sentiment works

0 major · 4 points

Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works

Positive

• Major pointSection 45Z tax credit sales totaled $70 million, substantially all credits expected from 2026 RNG and low-carbon ethanol. 26% of market cap
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Carbon revenue is expected to exceed $50 million in 2026, independent of federal incentives such as Section 45Z.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.GND expansion completion is expected in 2028, increasing ethanol production to 150 million gallons per year.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Gevo believes GND fuels, coproducts and carbon revenues could approximately double as the expansion comes online.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.GND upgrades targeting 10–15% more ethanol capacity and carbon capture remain on track for early fourth-quarter 2026 commissioning.

3 minor points

• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.GND upgrades are expected to deliver capacity and capture increases for full-year 2027.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.GND expansion would allow capture and permanent storage of over 400,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.
• Minor pointVoluntary carbon business growth includes spot and multi-year deals with intermediaries ClimeFi and CEEZER.

Negative

• Moderate pointBanked CFR credits were essentially all sold; the approximately $20 million third-quarter revenue came from previously delivered volumes. 7.3% of market cap
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.GND expansion's final investment decision remains anticipated for the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Annual carbon revenue excluding banked credits is expected at $30 million, based on current production rates and market conditions.
• Minor point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Potential expansion revenue doubling depends on completion, performance, market conditions and carbon monetization pathways.

Key Figures

Carbon business revenue: Over $50 million Revenue unlocked from CFR credits: Approximately $20 million Annual carbon business revenue: $30 million +5 more

Carbon business revenue

Over $50 million

2026; independent of U.S. federal government incentives

Revenue unlocked from CFR credits

Approximately $20 million

Third quarter of 2026; banked credits from previously delivered volumes

Annual carbon business revenue

$30 million

Based on current production rates and market conditions; excluding previously banked CFR credits

Section 45Z credits sold

$70 million

2026 tax credits from renewable natural gas and low-carbon ethanol

Debottlenecking increase

10–15%

Planned increase in GND ethanol capacity and carbon capture

Planned ethanol production

150 million gallons per year

Expected after the Gevo North Dakota expansion

Carbon dioxide capture and storage

Over 400,000 tons per year

Expected capacity following the Gevo North Dakota expansion

Expansion milestones

FID expected in Q4 2026; completion expected in 2028

Planned Gevo North Dakota expansion

Historical Context

4 past events · Latest: Oct 14

4 events

1. Oct 14

   Carbon supply agreement

   24h Move

   -9.3%

   Three-year CEEZER arrangement covers five-figure tons through 2029 and supports a carbon revenue opportunity.

2. Oct 08

   Credit transaction

   24h Move

   +3.9%

   Gevo completed delivery of 10,000 carbon dioxide removal credits through ClimeFi to a corporate buyer.

3. Oct 01

   Tax-credit sale

   24h Move

   +0.0%

   Sold substantially all 2026 Section 45Z credits, worth $70 million, from ethanol and RNG facilities.

4. Sep 14

   Plant debottlenecking

   24h Move

   +1.3%

   Debottlenecking targeted a 10–15% output increase, with key assets scheduled for year-end operation.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

section 45z clean fuel production credit, carbon dioxide removal (cdr) credit, final investment decision (fid), sustainable aviation fuel (saf), +1 more

5 terms

section 45z clean fuel production credit regulatory

"independent of U.S. federal government incentives such as the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit"

A Section 45Z clean fuel production credit is a government tax credit that rewards producers for making transportation fuels with substantially lower greenhouse‑gas emissions. Think of it as a per‑unit subsidy or bonus payment tied to how clean the fuel is; it improves a producer’s cash flow and project returns by effectively raising the price they receive. Investors care because the credit can turn otherwise marginal projects into profitable ones, change competitive dynamics in fuel markets, and alter company valuations and capital‑investment plans.

carbon dioxide removal (cdr) credit technical

"Each stored ton can generate a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit"

A carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit is a tradable certificate representing a quantified amount of carbon dioxide that has been captured from the atmosphere and stored or durably prevented from re-entering the atmosphere by a specific removal activity. Each credit is issued after the removal is measured, verified by an independent standard or auditor, and recorded in a registry, and it typically includes rules about permanence, monitoring, and reversal risk to distinguish true removals from temporary reductions. CDR credits differ from emission-reduction or avoidance credits because they claim net removal and long-term storage of CO2 rather than simply reducing future emissions.

final investment decision (fid) financial

"anticipated to reach final investment decision (FID) in the fourth quarter of 2026"

A final investment decision (FID) is the point when a company or investor commits to proceeding with a project or purchase after reviewing all relevant information and options. It is like deciding to buy a house after careful consideration, signaling that plans are now set in motion. This decision is important because it marks the official start of spending significant money and resources on the project.

sustainable aviation fuel (saf) technical

"Low-carbon ethanol is also a prerequisite for alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production"

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a drop-in replacement for conventional jet fuel made from non-petroleum sources such as waste oils, plant residues, or specially grown crops and manufactured to work with existing aircraft and fueling systems. It matters to investors because airlines and regulators are pushing to cut aviation’s carbon footprint, creating long-term demand, supply-chain opportunities, and regulatory risks for companies that produce, supply, or fail to adopt SAF—think of it as cleaner fuel that can reshape future revenue and cost structures.

carbon capture and storage (ccs) technical

"an ethanol plant with an adjacent carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility"

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a set of technologies that pull carbon dioxide from power plants or the air, compress it, and store it long-term underground or in stable materials, like putting smoke into a sealed vault instead of releasing it into the air. Investors care because CCS can reduce a company’s emissions, influence regulatory costs and eligibility for subsidies, and affect long-term project viability and public perception, much like pollution control affects a factory’s future profits.

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ENGLEWOOD, Colo., Oct. 22, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) today provided a business update announcing strong growth of its carbon business and its anticipated delivery of over $50 million in revenue for 2026 from the carbon business and independent of U.S. federal government incentives such as the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. The planned expansion of Gevo North Dakota (GND), expected to occur in 2028, could approximately double revenues from the carbon business and the other revenue streams from GND.

"I believe we've cracked the code for low-carbon fuels that drop into existing infrastructure while creating value from the carbon attributes beyond the fuel itself," said Gevo Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom. "For years, we've been building toward this moment. We are getting value from every component of our business - the fuel, the protein and the oil coproducts, and now, the carbon."

During the third quarter, Gevo monetized environmental attributes through compliance and voluntary carbon markets, including the sale of banked Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credits generated from qualifying low-carbon ethanol volumes. The CFR credit transactions unlocked approximately $20 million of revenue from previously delivered volumes. Not including the previously banked CFR credits, the carbon business is expected to contribute $30 million of revenue annually based on current production rates and market conditions. Taken together, Gevo’s carbon business alone is expected to deliver over $50 million of revenue in 2026.

"Carbon has real value in the marketplace independent of the Section 45Z tax credit incentives," said Bloom. "We are generating strong earnings through participation in compliance and voluntary carbon markets today and believe that the opportunity can grow significantly as we expand our production platform."

Business Highlights

• Approximately $20 million of revenue was unlocked during the third quarter of 2026 through the sale of essentially all banked CFR credits that were generated in 2025 and the first half of 2026
• Going forward, the carbon business is expected to contribute $30 million annually towards revenue based on current production rates and market conditions, which would expand as the business grows
• This growth in the carbon business is expected to be a significant contributor to third quarter and 2026 financial results as it is expected to deliver over $50 million of revenue in 2026
• Continued growth of the carbon business includes growth in voluntary carbon markets such as the spot and multi-year deals with leading carbon market intermediaries including ClimeFi and CEEZER
• In addition to the revenues from the carbon business, Gevo sold $70 million worth of Section 45Z tax credits for 2026, which is substantially all of the Section 45Z tax credits expected to be produced from our renewable natural gas (RNG) and low-carbon ethanol in 2026
• Debottlenecking to increase GND ethanol capacity and carbon capture by 10-15% is on track to be completed and commissioned ahead of schedule in the fourth quarter of 2026 and deliver increases for the full year 2027
• GND expansion initiative to approximately double capacity is anticipated to reach final investment decision (FID) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with expected completion in 2028
  

Gevo expects the planned expansion of GND to increase ethanol production to 150 million gallons per year and to allow the capture and permanent storage of over 400,000 tons per year of carbon dioxide. Subject to completion and performance of the expansion, applicable market conditions and the availability of pathways to monetize carbon attributes, Gevo believes the revenue from fuels, coproducts and carbon business could approximately double as the expansion comes online.

Low-carbon ethanol is also a prerequisite for alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. The planned GND expansion would increase the volume of low-carbon ethanol to meet increasing demand in low-carbon fuel markets and provide additional feedstock for anticipated future SAF production while expanding the carbon business from both initiatives.

"We are building a carbon and low-carbon fuels platform that can extend across ethanol, SAF, renewable hydrocarbons, racing fuels and chemicals, " Bloom continued. "Our objective is to maximize the value of every product and every carbon attribute we generate and put Gevo in a position of financial strength in order to help finance our growth and deliver returns to shareholders."

About Gevo North Dakota’s Carbon Project

At Gevo North Dakota, carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fermentation is stored more than a mile beneath the plant, with permanence exceeding 1,000 years and no pipeline needed. Each stored ton can generate a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit, which companies buy to offset emissions. According to CDR.fyi, across the CDR market, only about 3% of roughly 50 million contracted tons has been delivered. Gevo is among those delivering CDR credits, serving customers such as Nasdaq and Whirlpool. Amgen and PayPal appear on its registry as well through purchases from intermediaries.

About Gevo

Gevo is a next-generation diversified energy company committed to fueling America’s future with cost-effective, drop-in fuels that contribute to energy security, abate carbon, and strengthen rural communities to drive economic growth. Gevo’s innovative technology can be used to make a variety of renewable products, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), motor fuels, chemicals, and other materials that provide U.S.-made solutions. Gevo’s business model includes developing, financing, and operating production facilities that create jobs and revitalize communities. Gevo owns and operates an ethanol plant with an adjacent carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility and Class VI carbon-storage well. Gevo also owns and operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities in the United States, turning by-products into clean, reliable energy. Additionally, Gevo developed the world’s first production facility for specialty alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuels and chemicals operating since 2012. Gevo is currently developing the world’s first large-scale ATJ facility to be co-located at our North Dakota site. Gevo’s market-driven “pay-for-performance” approach regarding carbon and other sustainability attributes helps deliver value to our local economies. Through its Verity subsidiary, Gevo provides transparency, accountability, and efficiency in tracking, measuring, and verifying various attributes throughout the supply chain. By strengthening rural economies, Gevo is working to secure a self-sufficient future and to make sure value is brought to the market.

For more information, please visit www.gevo.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this press release may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to a variety of matters, including, without limitation, anticipated levels of revenue from Gevo’s carbon business; the timing, completion and expected effects of the planned Gevo North Dakota expansion; the potential growth of Gevo's carbon business; future carbon market opportunities; and the Company's strategy, financial position and growth plans, and other statements that are not purely statements of historical fact. These forward-looking statements are made based on the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of the management of Gevo and are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Gevo undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although Gevo believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, these statements involve many risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from what may be expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. For a further discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed in these forward-looking statements, as well as risks relating to the business of Gevo in general, see the risk disclosures in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and in subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K and other filings made with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by Gevo.

Media Contact
Communications@gevo.com

IR Contact
IR@Gevo.com

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

How much carbon revenue does Gevo expect in 2026?

Gevo expects over $50 million of carbon revenue in 2026, independent of federal incentives such as Section 45Z. Third-quarter sales of banked CFR credits unlocked approximately $20 million. Excluding previously banked credits, Gevo expects $30 million annually based on current production rates and market conditions.

When does Gevo expect to complete its North Dakota expansion?

Gevo expects the larger GND expansion to be completed in 2028, with a final investment decision anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026. The planned expansion would increase ethanol production to 150 million gallons per year and allow capture and permanent storage of over 400,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.

How would Gevo's North Dakota expansion support sustainable aviation fuel production?

The planned expansion would provide additional low-carbon ethanol feedstock for anticipated future sustainable aviation fuel production. Low-carbon ethanol is a prerequisite for alcohol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel production; the expansion would also increase volumes available to low-carbon fuel markets.