J.P. Morgan Releases 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, Highlighting Resilient 60/40 Portfolios and Opportunities to Enhance Diversification in a New Era of Economic Nationalism and AI Advancement

Rhea-AI Summary

J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) released its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on Oct 20, 2025, its 30th annual edition, offering 10–15 year return and risk projections across asset classes.

The report projects a 6.4% annual return for a USD 60/40 stock‑bond portfolio and 6.9% for a 60/40+ mix (60/40 plus 30% diversified alternatives), noting a 25% Sharpe ratio lift for the latter. Key asset assumptions include U.S. large cap 6.7%, global equities 7.0%, private equity 10.2%, U.S. core real estate 8.2%, and U.S. intermediate Treasuries 4.0%. Themes: moderate growth, rising economic nationalism, and rapid AI adoption affecting productivity and active management decisions.

Positive

• 60/40 portfolio projected return of 6.4%
• 60/40+ (30% alternatives) projected return of 6.9%
• Sharpe ratio +25% for 60/40+ versus 60/40
• Global equities projected return of 7.0%
• Private equity projected return of 10.2%
• U.S. core real estate projected return of 8.2%

Negative

• Long-term growth outlook moderated by labor constraints
• Rising economic nationalism and trade frictions add policy uncertainty
• Currency strength can erode USD returns for EUR-based investors

Insights

Macro Strategy Expert

J.P. Morgan's 2026 LTCMAs project resilient long‑term returns and highlight benefits from diversification and AI-driven productivity gains.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management presents a 30th anniversary Long‑Term Capital Market Assumptions with a projected annual return for a USD 60/40 stock‑bond portfolio of 6.4% over the next 10–15 years, and a 60/40+ portfolio (30% diversified alternatives) at 6.9% with a 25% Sharpe‑ratio uplift. The report lists concrete asset‑class return assumptions, including U.S. intermediate Treasuries 4%, U.S. large‑cap equities 6.7%, global equities 7%, private equity 10.2%, and U.S. core real estate 8.2%; these figures form the core quantitative guidance for long‑term allocation decisions.

The business mechanism is straightforward: the LTCMAs synthesize views from over 100 experts to produce long‑horizon return and risk forecasts that investors use to set strategic allocations and stress scenarios. The report explicitly cites moderating growth due to labor constraints, offsetting forces from AI adoption and fiscal measures, and a recommendation to boost diversification via global equities and real assets. Key dependencies and risks are spelled out in the release itself: outcomes hinge on the pace of AI adoption, shifting trade policies labeled as “economic nationalism,” and currency effects that materially change realized returns for non‑USD investors.

Concrete items to watch in the near‑to‑medium term include whether the factors highlighted alter realized returns versus these assumptions: the report's horizon (10–15 years) and the published return assumptions (notably 6.4% for 60/40 and 6.9% for 60/40+) are monitorable metrics. Given the explicit figures and multi‑asset guidance, the publication is actionable for strategic allocation reviews and manager selection over a multi‑year horizon; treat these projections as planning inputs, not performance guarantees.

This year marks the flagship report's 30th anniversary, showcasing J.P. Morgan's long-standing market expertise and leading research capabilities

NEW YORK, Oct. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- J.P. Morgan Asset Management today released its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), providing a comprehensive 10-15-year outlook for returns and risks across asset classes as the forces that drove volatility in recent years abate.

George Gatch, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset Management comments: "J.P. Morgan is differentiated by the longevity and long-term perspective that we bring to our active management. With 30 years of producing Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, we consistently offer essential guidance to clients ranging from institutional investors to high-net-worth individuals. As our clients face a rapidly evolving investment landscape, the LTCMAs share the insights of over 100 experts, equipping them to build resilient portfolios in an era of moderate growth, rising economic nationalism, and rapid AI-driven innovation."

In this 30th edition of the LTCMAs, the forecast annual return for a USD 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over the next 10–15 years remains attractive at 6.4%. Even after a year of strong equity market gains, asset return projections remain robust. Although labor constraints weigh on the long-term growth outlook, we believe AI adoption will provide a near-term boost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity. The report spotlights the opportunities to boost diversification  through global equities and alternatives, particularly real assets. For investors embracing a 60/40+ portfolio, with 30% in diversified alternatives, the projected return jumps to 6.9% and the Sharpe ratio gets a 25% lift over the simple 60/40 approach.

"Our 30th anniversary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions reflect on three decades of market evolution and look ahead to a future shaped by technology, shifting policy, and new asset classes," said John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "The economic landscape is shifting palpably. But, in our view, much of what worries investors today will ultimately pale beside the silver linings we see breaking through over the long run."

"The global economy is adapting to a new set of realities, with fiscal activism, technological adoption, and demographic shifts driving both challenges and opportunities," said Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "While growth in developed markets is expected to moderate, robust investment and productivity gains—particularly from AI—support a constructive long-term outlook."

"For investors today, building resilience means going beyond the traditional. Investors need to think outside the box, embracing alternatives and real assets to manage risk and unlock new sources of return," said Grace Peters, Global Co-Head of Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "Most importantly, anchoring your investments to a goals-based plan ensures your portfolio stays aligned and adaptable, so you can remain confident no matter how uncertain the environment."

Key findings include:

• Resilience in markets despite slower growth: Despite a dip in growth projections due to changing labor market dynamics, asset return projections remain strong.
• Economic Nationalism is a challenge, not a showstopper: Trade frictions are making headlines, but also forcing some countries to boost domestic investment – a clear silver lining to the impact of tariffs. 
• Technology continues to drive this bull market: Capital investment and technology spend continue to provide momentum for the broader market. Governments are stepping up, unleashing record stimulus and incentives.
• The AI boom is at a critical juncture: Adoption is surging, and investment is massive. Investors should pivot their attention to who will be the eventual winners and losers of new technologies, making active management key. 
• Equity strength, but currency matters: After two years of 20% gains followed by another 14% so far this year, US equity performance has been exceptionally strong for USD-based investors. That said, EUR-based investors have been handed a double-edged sword, as the strength of the currency offset a very respectable rate of return from US stocks.
• Diversification isn't optional, it's essential: shifting policies and higher investment mean more volatile inflation. This demands smarter portfolios that use alternatives and real assets for resilience and returns. Manager selection is key to take advantage of this current environment of disruptive change. 

The report also outlines the following asset class return assumptions:

• Fixed Income
• U.S. intermediate Treasuries are expected to return 4%, while long Treasuries are expected to return 4.9%.
• U.S. investment grade credit is forecast to return 5.2%, with spreads tightening due to a shortening of the maturity of debt issuance.
• U.S. high yield credit is expected to return 6.1%, with a fair value spread of 475bps, driven by higher credit quality.
• Equities
• U.S. large cap equities are expected to return 6.7%, holding steady from last year as the move from tech adoption to tech deployment broadens to other sectors and concerns over index concentration are expected to dissipate. The U.S. looks likely to remain the global leader in technology origination.
• Global equities are projected to return 7% (USD), with non-U.S. markets offering more attractive cyclical starting points and benefiting from currency appreciation.
• Emerging markets equities are expected to return 7.8% (USD), dipping modestly after strong performance this year.

• Alternatives
• Private Equity: The return assumption for private equity is 10.2%, reflecting a slight increase due to a more favorable exit environment and higher growth opportunities in technology and AI.
• Real Estate: U.S. core real estate is expected to return 8.2%, driven by attractive entry points and higher yields. European core real estate is forecast to return 6.9%.
• Infrastructure: Global core infrastructure is projected to return 6.5%, reflecting the essential nature of the services provided by this asset class through a shifting trade policy environment.
• Commodities: The return assumption for broad basket commodities remains at 4.6%, with the energy transition and geopolitical risks influencing the outlook. Gold is expected to return 5.5%, an increase from last year at 4.5%.
• Timberland: Global timberland is expected to return 6.3%, reflecting an increase from last year at 5.3%.

Three Decades of LTCMAs: From Spreadsheet to Global Standard

Celebrating its 30^th anniversary, the LTCMAs reflect on three decades of extraordinary market evolution, including the internet revolution, the birth of the euro, the global financial crisis, quantitative easing, the pandemic, and the dawn of artificial intelligence.

What began as a modest spreadsheet for asset allocation has transformed into a globally relied upon program, built on a rigorous research process that combines quantitative and qualitative insights from over 100 industry-leading portfolio managers, research analysts, and strategists worldwide.

Today, these time-tested projections cover more than 200 assets across 20 currencies, setting the standard for strategic asset allocation and long-term investment planning in an ever-evolving financial landscape.

View the full 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions here.

About J.P. Morgan Asset Management

J.P. Morgan Asset Management, with assets under management of $4 trillion (as of 9/30/2025), is a global leader in investment management. J.P. Morgan Asset Management's clients include institutions, retail investors and high net worth individuals in every major market throughout the world. J.P. Morgan Asset Management offers global investment management in equities, fixed income, real estate, hedge funds, private equity and liquidity. For more information, visit: www.jpmorgan.com/am.

About J.P. Morgan Private Bank

J.P. Morgan Private Bank provides customized financial advice to help wealthy clients and their families achieve their goals through an elevated experience. Clients of the Private Bank work with dedicated teams of specialists that bring their investments and financial assets together into one comprehensive strategy, leveraging the global resources of J.P. Morgan across planning, investing, lending, banking, philanthropy, family office management, fiduciary services, special advisory services and more. The Private Bank oversees more than $3.4 trillion in client assets globally (as of 9/30/2025). More information about J.P. Morgan Private Bank is available at privatebank.jpmorgan.com.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading financial services firm based in the United States of America ("U.S."), with operations worldwide. JPMorgan Chase had $4.6 trillion in assets and $360 billion in stockholders' equity (as of 9/30/2025). The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Under the J.P. Morgan and Chase brands, the Firm serves millions of customers in the U.S., and many of the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients globally. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorganchase.com.

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SOURCE J.P. Morgan Asset Management

FAQ

What return did J.P. Morgan forecast for a 60/40 portfolio in the 2026 LTCMAs (Oct 20, 2025)?

The report projects a 6.4% annual return for a USD 60/40 stock‑bond portfolio over the next 10–15 years.

How does a 60/40+ portfolio perform in J.P. Morgan's 2026 assumptions (symbol JPM)?

A 60/40+ portfolio with 30% diversified alternatives is projected to return 6.9% and raise the Sharpe ratio by 25% versus a simple 60/40.

What asset class returns did J.P. Morgan list for U.S. large cap and global equities in 2026 LTCMAs?

U.S. large cap is projected at 6.7% and global equities at 7.0% (USD) over 10–15 years.

Which alternatives showed the highest return assumptions in the 2026 LTCMAs?

Private equity is projected at 10.2% and U.S. core real estate at 8.2%.

What macro themes did J.P. Morgan highlight in the 2026 LTCMAs released Oct 20, 2025?

The report cites moderate growth, rising economic nationalism, and rapid AI-driven innovation as dominant themes.