Medpace Holdings Under Investigation After Book-to-Bill Miss Exposes Cancellation Surge and Pipeline Fragility

Rhea-AI Summary

{"summary":"","positive":[],"negative":[],"faq":[]}

News Market Reaction

+4.20%

1 alert

+4.20% News Effect

On the day this news was published, MEDP gained 4.20%, reflecting a moderate positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Q4 2025 revenue: $708.5M Q4 2025 GAAP EPS: $4.67 Q4 2025 book-to-bill: 1.04x +5 more

8 metrics

Q4 2025 revenue $708.5M Q4 2025 earnings; exceeded consensus

Q4 2025 GAAP EPS $4.67 Q4 2025 earnings; exceeded consensus

Q4 2025 book-to-bill 1.04x Reported as lower than Medpace expected

Historical book-to-bill range 1.10–1.25x Described as Medpace’s historical trend

Year-end backlog $3B Approximate backlog as of Dec 31, 2025

Backlog YoY growth 4.3% Year-over-year backlog growth at Dec 31, 2025

Post-Q4 share move -15.9% Approximate move on Feb 10, 2026 after Q4 disclosure

Guided book-to-bill >1.15x Prior calls referenced path to >1.15 in Q3/Q4 2025

Market Reality Check

Price: $446.17 Vol: Volume 429,778 is roughly...

normal vol

$446.17 Last Close

Volume Volume 429,778 is roughly in line with the 416,113 20-day average (1.03x). normal

Technical Shares at $428.18 are trading below the 200-day MA of $470.77 and well under the $628.92 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

MEDP is nearly flat (+0.04%) while close peers show mixed moves (e.g., ICLR -2.0...

MEDP is nearly flat (+0.04%) while close peers show mixed moves (e.g., ICLR -2.06%, ILMN +0.8%, WAT -0.48%), pointing to stock‑specific dynamics rather than a sector rotation.

Historical Context

4 past events · Latest: Feb 09 (Positive)

Pattern 4 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 09	Q4/FY 2025 earnings	Positive	-2.2%	Strong Q4 and 2025 results with raised 2026 guidance and solid cash flow.
Jan 05	Earnings date set	Neutral	+3.8%	Announcement of Q4/FY 2025 earnings release and conference call schedule.
Oct 22	Q3 2025 earnings	Positive	+0.2%	Strong Q3 growth, high net new business awards, and 1.20x book‑to‑bill.
Sep 23	Q3 call timing	Neutral	+0.2%	Scheduling of Q3 2025 results release and investor conference call.

Pattern Detected

Recent earnings reports showed strong growth metrics but at least one event (Feb 9, 2026) saw a negative price reaction despite positive fundamentals, suggesting occasional sell-offs on good news.

Recent Company History

Over the last few quarters, Medpace highlighted robust growth. Q3 2025 revenue of $659.9M with a net book‑to‑bill of 1.20x and strong cash generation supported higher 2025 guidance. The Feb 9, 2026 Q4/FY 2025 update reported revenue of $708.5M and upbeat 2026 guidance, yet the stock fell 2.16% over 24 hours. Today’s investigation headline revisits that same period’s booking and cancellation disclosures, aligning with previously reported metrics like the 1.04x book‑to‑bill and backlog commentary.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement focuses on an investigation into whether Medpace’s statements about its booking pi...

Analysis

This announcement focuses on an investigation into whether Medpace’s statements about its booking pipeline aligned with internal data, particularly around a 1.04x book‑to‑bill and elevated cancellations. It connects directly to prior Q4 2025 disclosures on backlog and bookings. Investors may watch future earnings commentary, backlog growth versus the reported 4.3% pace, and any outcomes from the legal review when assessing the durability of Medpace’s growth profile.

Key Terms

book-to-bill ratio, GAAP

2 terms

book-to-bill ratio financial

"In the CRO sector, the book-to-bill ratio serves as the primary forward-looking..."

The book-to-bill ratio compares the value of new orders a company receives to the value of products it ships out or bills for over a certain period. If the ratio is above 1, it means the company is getting more orders than it is completing, which can indicate growth. If it's below 1, it suggests demand is slowing down.

GAAP financial

"Medpace reported Q4 2025 earnings. While the company posted revenue... and GAAP EPS of $4.67..."

GAAP, or Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, are a set of standardized rules and guidelines that companies follow when preparing their financial statements. They ensure consistency, transparency, and comparability across different companies, making it easier for investors to understand and compare financial information accurately. This helps investors make informed decisions based on trustworthy and uniform financial reports.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

(NASDAQ: MEDP)

NEW YORK, Feb. 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Levi & Korsinsky, LLP is investigating Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) concerning potential securities law claims on behalf of shareholders. The investigation centers on whether the company and its senior officers made statements about the health of its clinical-trial booking pipeline that were inconsistent with internal data showing elevated cancellation rates and a deteriorating book-to-bill ratio. Investors who suffered losses in MEDP shares may obtain more information about this investigation and their legal rights by contacting Levi & Korsinsky.

Medpace is one of the largest contract research organizations (CROs) in the clinical-trial industry, providing Phase I through Phase IV drug development services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies worldwide. In the CRO sector, the book-to-bill ratio serves as the primary forward-looking indicator of business health. Because CRO revenues are recognized over multi-year contract timelines, booking metrics carry outsized significance for valuation and investor expectations. Historically, Medpace has maintained book-to-bill ratios in the range of 1.10 to 1.25, making a 1.04 reading a significant departure from the company's established trend. The CRO industry experienced record demand during the post-pandemic period, making any reversal in booking momentum particularly material to investor assessments of forward growth.

On February 9, 2026, Medpace reported Q4 2025 earnings. While the company posted revenue of $708.5 million and GAAP EPS of $4.67, both exceeding consensus estimates, the results disclosed a Q4 book-to-bill ratio of 1.04, which was lower than Medpace expected. CEO August Troendle acknowledged that cancellations were "the highest in over a year" resulting in the lower-than-anticipated book-to-bill ratio, stating that cancellations "skewed towards metabolic area," but "no single large project" responsible.

These disclosures contrasted sharply with statements made during prior earnings calls. On the Q3 2025 call on October 23, 2025, Troendle stated: "Cancellations were well behaved in Q3, permitting record net bookings and a net book-to-bill of 1.20." On the Q2 call on July 22, 2025, he said cancellations were "down across the pipeline" and predicted a "strong potential for book-to-bills returning to above 1.15x in Q3." On the Q1 call on April 22, 2025, Troendle projected a "path to improved backlog growth reflected in book-to-bill ratios above 1.15 in Q3 and Q4."

The ending backlog stood at approximately $3 billion as of December 31, 2025, reflecting just 4.3% year-over-year growth. Following the Q4 disclosure, Medpace shares fell approximately 15.9% on February 10, 2026. Multiple financial outlets, including Investor's Business Daily, Seeking Alpha, and GuruFocus, identified the bookings miss as the primary driver of the sell-off.

Shareholders who lost money on their investment in Medpace Holdings and wish to discuss their legal rights may click here to learn more.

Levi & Korsinsky, LLP is a nationally recognized firm with offices in New York, California, Connecticut, and Washington, D.C. that prosecutes securities, consumer, and shareholder class actions; more information is available at www.zlk.com.

CONTACT:
Joseph E. Levi, Esq.
Levi & Korsinsky, LLP
33 Whitehall Street, 27th Floor
New York, NY 10004
Tel: (212) 363-7500
Fax: (212) 363-7171
Email: jlevi@levikorsinsky.com
www.zlk.com

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SOURCE Levi & Korsinsky, LLP