Mortgages Above 6% Now Exceed Share of Mortgages Below 3%, Marking a Turning Point in the Rate Lock-In Era

Rhea-AI Summary

Realtor.com (NWS) analysis of FHFA data shows that in 2025 Q3 the share of U.S. outstanding mortgages with rates 6% or higher reached 21.2%, surpassing the 20.0% share with rates below 3%. More than half of mortgages (51.5%) remain at or below 4%, and 68.6% carry rates of 5% or lower, sustaining a strong rate-lock effect. The share of mortgages above 6% rose by over four percentage points year-over-year to 21.2%, while modest easing into the low-6% range and improved housing supply are beginning to ease mobility constraints for some sellers.

Positive

• Share of mortgages ≥6% rose to 21.2% in 2025 Q3
• Share of mortgages <3% declined to 20.0%, causing a crossover
• Housing supply has improved, moving markets toward balance

Negative

• Over 68% of loans carry rates ≤5%, sustaining rate lock-in
• Typical homeowner would face nearly $1,000 higher monthly payment if moving

Key Figures

Mortgages ≥6%: 21.2% Mortgages <3%: 20.0% ≤4% mortgages: 51.5% +5 more

8 metrics

Mortgages ≥6% 21.2% Share of outstanding U.S. mortgages, 2025 Q3

Mortgages <3% 20.0% Share of outstanding U.S. mortgages, 2025 Q3

≤4% mortgages 51.5% Share of outstanding mortgages at or below 4%

≤5% mortgages 68.6% Cumulative share of mortgages with rates 5% or lower

Peak 2025 rate 7.04% 30-year fixed mortgage rate peak in January 2025

Above-6% share increase 4 percentage points Increase in ≥6% mortgage share from 2024 Q3 to 2025 Q3

Under-6% mortgages 80% Approximate share of mortgages with rates under 6%

Mortgages ≤5% (text) 69% Narrative share of mortgages with rates 5% or lower

Market Reality Check

Price: $30.69 Vol: Volume 767,008 equals 0.7...

normal vol

$30.69 Last Close

Volume Volume 767,008 equals 0.78x the 20-day average of 977,158, suggesting muted trading interest pre-release. normal

Technical Shares at $30.61 are trading below the 200-day MA of $31.67, indicating a softer longer-term trend into this macro housing update.

Peers on Argus

NWS gained 0.36% with mixed peer moves: NWSA +0.6%, TKO +5.51%, WMG +2.01%, ROKU...

NWS gained 0.36% with mixed peer moves: NWSA +0.6%, TKO +5.51%, WMG +2.01%, ROKU +0.14%, FOXA -0.62%. No broad, unified sector reaction tied to this housing-focused release.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 08 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Jan 08	Housing inventory data	Positive	+0.4%	Realtor.com reported continued U.S. housing inventory growth and price trends.
Jan 07	Data partnership	Positive	+0.2%	Exclusive Polymarket partnership to distribute prediction data across Dow Jones brands.
Jan 07	Market rankings	Positive	+0.2%	Realtor.com named top 2026 markets for first-time homebuyers with affordability focus.
Dec 29	Affordability study	Positive	-0.2%	Study showed down-payment timelines improved from prior peaks but remain extended.
Dec 23	PropTech event launch	Positive	+0.4%	Announcement of inaugural PropTech Startup Showdown at SXSW 2026.

Pattern Detected

Recent Realtor.com and partnership headlines have been followed by modest, generally positive price reactions, with only one small divergence on largely constructive housing data.

Recent Company History

Over the past month, NWS news has centered on Realtor.com® housing insights and a data partnership. On Dec 23, 2025, a PropTech event announcement coincided with a 0.37% gain. A down-payment affordability report on Dec 29, 2025 saw a modest -0.23% move. Early January 2026 brought first-time buyer rankings and a Polymarket/Dow Jones data deal, each followed by small positive moves (up to 0.36%). Today’s macro mortgage-rate analysis fits this pattern of incremental, data-heavy housing commentary.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights a structural shift in U.S. housing finance, with 21.2% of mortgages now...

Analysis

This announcement highlights a structural shift in U.S. housing finance, with 21.2% of mortgages now at rates of 6% or higher, edging out those below 3%. For NWS, it extends Realtor.com®’s role as a source of granular housing analytics, complementing recent inventory and affordability reports. Investors may watch how this evolving rate mix influences housing activity, advertising demand, and data-product opportunities across the company’s broader media and information portfolio.

Key Terms

mortgage rates, outstanding mortgage, 30-year fixed mortgage rate, median-priced home, +1 more

5 terms

mortgage rates financial

"The share of U.S. homeowners carrying mortgage rates above 6% has officially..."

Mortgage rates are the interest percentages lenders charge when people borrow money to buy a home or refinance an existing loan. They determine how much borrowers pay each month and over the life of the loan — like the added cost on top of a car’s sticker price — and influence housing demand, consumer spending, and bank profitability, so investors watch them as a bellwether for the broader economy and financial markets.

outstanding mortgage financial

"according to new Realtor.com analysis of outstanding mortgage data."

Outstanding mortgage is the remaining principal amount that a borrower still owes on a home loan after prior payments. Investors care because it represents an ongoing obligation that affects a borrower’s or lender’s balance sheet, cash flow and credit risk—similar to the unpaid portion of a car loan that determines how much is left to pay and how secure any collateral is.

30-year fixed mortgage rate financial

"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3% in July 2020..."

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the interest rate charged on a home loan that is paid back over 30 years with consistent monthly payments. Because the rate stays the same throughout the loan period, it provides stability and predictability for homeowners. This rate influences borrowing costs and can impact the overall housing market and consumer spending.

median-priced home financial

"if they sold and bought a median-priced home in today's high-price..."

Median-priced home is the house whose sale price sits in the middle of all recent home sales in a given area — half sold for more, half for less. Investors use it as a straightforward snapshot of local housing value and market direction because it isn’t skewed by a few very cheap or very expensive sales; think of it as the midpoint on a price ruler that helps gauge affordability, demand, and potential returns.

housing supply financial

"continuing to influence homeowner behavior, market mobility, and housing supply."

The total number of homes available to buy or rent in a market at a given time, including newly built units and existing properties. Like the inventory on a store shelf, more housing supply tends to ease upward pressure on prices and rents, while tight supply can push them higher; investors watch it because changes affect homebuilders, landlords, mortgage lenders and broader consumer spending, which influence company profits and stock values.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

As Buyers Adjust to 6%-Plus Rates, the Share of Higher-Rate Mortgages Is Poised to Rise

AUSTIN, Texas, Jan. 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The share of U.S. homeowners carrying mortgage rates above 6% has officially surpassed the share holding ultra-low rates below 3%, signaling a meaningful shift in the housing market after years of historically low borrowing costs, according to new Realtor.com^® analysis of outstanding mortgage data.

In the third quarter of 2025, 21.2% of outstanding mortgages carried interest rates of 6% or higher, edging past the 20.0% share with rates below 3%. While mortgage rates have eased from their 2025 peak of 7.04% in January and settled into the low-6% range by year's end, they have remained above 6% since September 2022—continuing to influence homeowner behavior, market mobility, and housing supply.

"Mortgage rates above 6% now represent a larger share of outstanding loans than the ultra-low rates that defined the pandemic-era housing boom," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com^®. "This crossover reflects a gradual resetting as some households trade in low-rate mortgages for higher-rate loans or enter the market for the first time, even as rate lock-in continues to limit the pace of inventory recovery."

Outstanding Mortgage Rate	Share of Mortgages (2025 Q3)	Cumulative Share
< 3%	20.0 %	20.0 %
3% to 4%	31.5 %	51.5 %
4% to 5%	17.1 %	68.6 %
5% to 6%	10.2 %	78.8 %
6% +	21.2 %	100 %

Source: FHFA National Mortgage Database

Low-rate Mortgages Remains a Powerful Force

More than half (51.5%) of outstanding mortgages still have rates at or below 4%, and nearly 69% carry rates of 5% or lower. This concentration helps explain why many homeowners remain hesitant to sell: the typical homeowner would see their monthly mortgage payment rise by nearly $1,000 if they sold and bought a median-priced home in today's high-price, high-rate environment.

Ultra-low mortgage rates were an anomaly in modern housing history. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3% in July 2020 and largely stayed there through September 2021—the only period since data collection began in 1971 when rates dipped below that threshold. Those extraordinary conditions left a lasting imprint on today's housing market.

Despite this, the share of mortgages with rates above 6% has increased more than 4 percentage points from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025, reflecting continued buyer activity even in a high-rate environment. Life events such as marriage, divorce, or growing families continue to drive homebuying, while some buyers who had delayed moves may be acting as rates softened modestly from recent highs.

Housing Supply Improvements Push Towards Balanced Market

Housing supply has improved over the past year, pushing the national market into more balanced territory and some local markets into buyer's market conditions. However, inventory remains constrained, particularly in more affordable areas where homes continue to sell quickly amid strong competition.

"Even with rates still elevated, modest mortgage rate decreases into the low-6% range could encourage additional homebuying activity," Hale added. "Further easing in inflation and mortgage rates would be key to unlocking more seller participation, helping to relieve price pressure and competition in an under-supplied market."

Lock-In Effect, Still In Effect, but Beginning to Ease

While roughly 80% of outstanding mortgages still carry rates under 6%, underscoring the persistence of rate lock-in, the fact that mortgages above 6% now outnumber those below 3% marks an important inflection point—one that suggests a slowly loosening grip of the ultra-low-rate era on today's housing market.

Methodology

Realtor.com analysis of FHFA Outstanding Residential Mortgage statistics.

About Realtor.com^®

Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mortgages-above-6-now-exceed-share-of-mortgages-below-3-marking-a-turning-point-in-the-rate-lock-in-era-302660419.html

SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

What does the 2025 Q3 crossover of mortgage rates mean for NWS investors?

It indicates a market shift: 21.2% of mortgages are ≥6% versus 20.0% below 3%, which may slowly increase housing mobility and inventory over time.

How much did the share of mortgages above 6% change year-over-year for NWS on Jan 14, 2026?

The share of mortgages >6% increased by more than 4 percentage points from 2024 Q3 to 2025 Q3.

Does the report say housing supply is improving and how does that affect NWS outlook?

Yes; supply improvements have shifted the national market toward balance, which could relieve price pressure if sustained.

How prevalent is rate lock-in according to the Jan 14, 2026 analysis cited for NWS?

Rate lock-in remains strong: 51.5% of mortgages are ≤4% and 68.6% are ≤5%, limiting seller participation.

Could modest declines into the low-6% mortgage range boost homebuying per the Jan 14, 2026 release?

The analysis says modest easing into the low-6% range could encourage additional homebuying and more seller participation.