Metros Where Falling Mortgage Rates Could Spark the Most Change: New Report from Realtor.com®

Rhea-AI Summary

Realtor.com (NASDAQ:NWSA) released a comprehensive report analyzing how falling mortgage rates could impact different U.S. housing markets. The study reveals that Washington D.C. (73.6%), Denver (72.9%), Virginia Beach (70.7%), and Raleigh (70.7%) lead the nation with the highest share of mortgaged households.

The analysis shows that 81% of existing mortgages have rates of 6% or lower, suggesting these markets could see increased activity as rates approach the 6% level. Conversely, markets like Miami (44.8%), Buffalo (44.2%), and Pittsburgh (44.2%) have the highest share of outright owners and may be slower to respond to rate changes.

At the regional level, the West (64.3%) and Northeast (59.5%) show higher mortgage reliance compared to the South (57.5%), indicating potentially stronger market responses to rate changes in these regions.

Positive

• Markets with high mortgage usage could see accelerated buyer demand as rates fall
• 81% of existing mortgages have rates of 6% or lower, indicating potential for market activity
• Falling rates could unlock affordability and expand choices for first-time buyers
• Regional variations provide clear market opportunity indicators for investors

Negative

• Markets with high outright ownership may see slower response to rate changes
• Significant regional disparities in mortgage reliance could lead to uneven market recovery
• Southern states show lower mortgage utilization, potentially limiting rate-cut benefits
• Older population centers may experience less market volatility and slower growth

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

Lower mortgage rates will disproportionately benefit high-mortgage markets like Washington D.C. and Denver, potentially boosting Realtor.com traffic and revenue.

This report from Realtor.com provides critical insight into which housing markets are likely to see the strongest response to falling mortgage rates, now in the low 6% range. The analysis identifies a clear geographic divide in market sensitivity based on mortgage prevalence. Metro areas with younger demographics and higher mobility - particularly Washington D.C. (73.6%), Denver (72.9%), Virginia Beach (70.7%), and Raleigh (70.7%) - have the highest percentage of mortgaged homes and stand to see the most significant uptick in market activity as rates decline.

The data reveals substantial regional variation in mortgage usage across the 50 largest U.S. metros. Markets with high concentrations of outright homeowners (no mortgages), such as Miami (44.8%), Buffalo (44.2%), and Pittsburgh (44.2%), will likely experience more muted responses to rate changes. This pattern extends to the state level, with D.C. (74.3%), Maryland (70%), and Colorado (69%) showing the highest mortgage dependency versus West Virginia (44.9%), Mississippi (48.4%), and New Mexico (49.4%) with the lowest.

The report highlights a key demographic driver: 53.9% of outright homeowners are aged 65+, indicating that market age profiles significantly influence rate sensitivity. For Realtor.com's parent company News Corp (NWSA), this intelligence offers strategic value in targeting marketing resources toward high-response markets where listing activity and buyer interest are most likely to accelerate. With 81% of existing mortgages at rates of 6% or lower, the approaching 6% threshold represents a psychological and financial inflection point that could catalyze previously sidelined buyers and sellers, particularly in the Northeast and West regions where mortgage usage is highest.

Washington D.C.; Denver, CO.; Virginia Beach, Va.; Raleigh, N.C.; and Seattle, Wash.; lead the top 5 metros with the highest share of mortgaged homeowners

AUSTIN, Texas, Sept. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As mortgage rates drift into the low 6% range following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, a new Realtor.com^® report found that metros with younger, more mobile populations, such as Washington D.C., Denver, CO., Raleigh N.C. and Virginia Beach, Va. stand to benefit the most from consistently lower mortgage rates. According to our analysis, 81% of existing mortgages have a rate of 6% or lower. In other words, as mortgage rates approach the 6% level, we can expect to see more homeowners "unlocked," especially in areas with high mortgage usage.

The report finds that Washington, D.C. (73.6%), Denver (72.9%), Virginia Beach (70.7%) and Raleigh (70.7%) lead the nation with the largest share of mortgaged households, making them the most likely to see buyer demand accelerate as financing conditions improve. By contrast, Miami (44.8%), Buffalo (44.2%) and Pittsburgh (44.2%) rank among the least mortgage-reliant metros, suggesting their housing markets may be slower to respond to falling rates.

"Falling mortgage rates open doors for many would-be buyers and sellers, but where you live determines how much the market shifts in response to the opportunity," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com^®. "In markets like Denver or Washington, D.C., where most owners are still paying off their mortgages, lower rates are more likely to spark renewed activity. Meanwhile, metros with older populations and more outright owners, like Buffalo or Miami, may see a lower market-level response, even though lower rates are a difference-maker for some individuals in these markets."

Across the 50 largest U.S. metros, the analysis shows wide variation in the role mortgages play. In Washington, D.C., nearly three-quarters of owned homes carry a mortgage, followed closely by Denver and Virginia Beach. These younger, more mobile housing markets are likely to see the fastest reacceleration in demand as borrowing costs decline. On the other end of the spectrum, metros such as Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Miami have the highest share of outright owners, driven by high concentration of older homeowners.

Top 10 Metros with the Highest Share of Mortgaged Households

1. Washington, D.C. - 73.6%
2. Denver, Co. - 72.9%
3. Virginia Beach, Va. - 70.7%
4. Raleigh NC - 70.7%
5. San Diego Calif. - 70.0%
6. Baltimore, M.D. - 69.4%
7. Atlanta, GA - 69.2%
8. Seattle, Wash. - 69.1%
9. Portland, OR - 68.5%
10. Richmond, VA - 68.3%

Top 10 Metros with the Highest Share of Outright Owners

1. Miami, Fla. - 44.8%
2. Buffalo, N.Y. - 44.2%
3. Pittsburgh, Pa. - 44.2%
4. Detroit, Mich. - 42.3%
5. Tampa, Fla. - 42.3%
6. Houston, Texas - 42.2%
7. Tucson, Az. -41.9%
8. San Antonio, Texas - 41.5%
9. Birmingham, Ala. - 41.0%
10. New York, N.Y. - 40.1%

About 64% of occupied U.S. housing units are owned, and nearly two-thirds of those homeowners have a mortgage.  The age profile of homeowners is driving mortgage reliance nationwide. Older households account for the majority of outright owners, 53.9% were aged 65+ in 2024, on par with levels seen in the previous years. Because most people purchase homes earlier in life, rising property values allow them to build equity over time. That equity can be used to refinance, or to sell and downsize, reducing or eliminating the need for new mortgage debt.

At the state level, the divide is just as stark as by metro. D.C. (74.3%), Maryland (70.0%) and Colorado (69.0%), stand out for their high shares of mortgaged households, while West Virginia (55.1%), Mississippi (51.6%) and New Mexico (50.6%) are home to more outright owners. These differences suggest that rate-sensitive demand will surge more strongly in the Northeast and West regions, while parts of the South may remain less reactive.

For buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, easing mortgage rates can unlock affordability and expand choices. For sellers, the outlook depends on geography: those in high-mortgage metros may see faster-moving markets and stronger competition, while sellers in outright-owner markets may find conditions steadier and less volatile.

Metro Areas Where Mortgages Are Most Common 

Metro	% of Owner-Occupied Homes With a Mortgage	% of Owner-Occupied Homes Without a Mortgage
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area	73.6 %	26.4 %
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area	72.9 %	27.1 %
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC Metro Area	70.7 %	29.3 %
Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area	70.7 %	29.3 %
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area	70.0 %	30.0 %
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metro Area	69.4 %	30.6 %
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area	69.2 %	30.8 %
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area	69.1 %	30.9 %
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area	68.5 %	31.5 %
Richmond, VA Metro Area	68.3 %	31.7 %
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area	68.1 %	31.9 %
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area	67.7 %	32.3 %
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area	67.7 %	32.3 %
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area	67.6 %	32.4 %
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN Metro Area	67.6 %	32.4 %
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV Metro Area	67.2 %	32.8 %
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area	67.0 %	33.0 %
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area	66.9 %	33.1 %
Columbus, OH Metro Area	66.5 %	33.5 %
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area	66.2 %	33.8 %
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area	66.1 %	33.9 %
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metro Area	65.5 %	34.5 %
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area	65.4 %	34.6 %
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area	65.2 %	34.8 %
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area	65.2 %	34.8 %
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI Metro Area	64.6 %	35.4 %
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area	64.5 %	35.5 %
Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area	64.1 %	35.9 %
Jacksonville, FL Metro Area	63.8 %	36.2 %
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area	63.6 %	36.4 %
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area	63.2 %	36.8 %
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metro Area	63.1 %	36.9 %
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area	62.9 %	37.1 %
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area	62.1 %	37.9 %
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area	62.0 %	38.0 %
Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area	61.7 %	38.3 %
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area	61.7 %	38.3 %
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area	60.6 %	39.4 %
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI Metro Area	60.3 %	39.7 %
Cleveland, OH Metro Area	60.3 %	39.7 %
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area	59.9 %	40.1 %
Birmingham, AL Metro Area	59.0 %	41.0 %
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area	58.5 %	41.5 %
Tucson, AZ Metro Area	58.1 %	41.9 %
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area	57.8 %	42.2 %
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area	57.7 %	42.3 %
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area	57.7 %	42.3 %
Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area	55.8 %	44.2 %
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area	55.8 %	44.2 %
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area	55.2 %	44.8 %
Data source: 2024 ACS 1-Year Estimates

States Where Mortgages Are Most Common

State	% of Owner-Occupied Homes With a Mortgage	% of Owner-Occupied Homes Without a Mortgage
District of Columbia	74.3 %	25.7 %
Maryland	70.0 %	30.0 %
Colorado	69.0 %	31.0 %
Utah	68.0 %	32.0 %
California	66.1 %	33.9 %
Virginia	65.8 %	34.2 %
Rhode Island	65.6 %	34.4 %
Massachusetts	65.5 %	34.5 %
Nevada	65.3 %	34.7 %
Washington	65.1 %	34.9 %
Oregon	63.4 %	36.6 %
New Jersey	62.9 %	37.1 %
Connecticut	62.9 %	37.1 %
Delaware	62.8 %	37.2 %
Georgia	62.7 %	37.3 %
Minnesota	62.6 %	37.4 %
Indiana	62.5 %	37.5 %
Hawaii	60.7 %	39.3 %
New Hampshire	60.6 %	39.4 %
Arizona	60.6 %	39.4 %
North Carolina	60.5 %	39.5 %
Idaho	60.4 %	39.6 %
Alaska	60.4 %	39.6 %
Wisconsin	60.0 %	40.0 %
Ohio	59.7 %	40.3 %
Illinois	59.7 %	40.3 %
Missouri	58.8 %	41.2 %
Iowa	58.1 %	41.9 %
Vermont	57.8 %	42.2 %
Nebraska	57.8 %	42.2 %
South Carolina	57.0 %	43.0 %
Kansas	57.0 %	43.0 %
New York	56.8 %	43.2 %
Pennsylvania	56.7 %	43.3 %
Tennessee	56.5 %	43.5 %
Michigan	56.5 %	43.5 %
Florida	55.8 %	44.2 %
Texas	55.5 %	44.5 %
Maine	55.5 %	44.5 %
Kentucky	54.7 %	45.3 %
South Dakota	54.6 %	45.4 %
Montana	54.1 %	45.9 %
Oklahoma	53.9 %	46.1 %
Alabama	53.5 %	46.5 %
Wyoming	52.9 %	47.1 %
Arkansas	52.4 %	47.6 %
Louisiana	51.8 %	48.2 %
North Dakota	51.3 %	48.7 %
New Mexico	49.4 %	50.6 %
Mississippi	48.4 %	51.6 %
West Virginia	44.9 %	55.1 %
Data source: 2024 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Regions Where Mortgages Are Most Common

Region	% of Owner-Occupied Homes With a Mortgage	% of Owner-Occupied Homes Without a Mortgage
West	64.3 %	35.7 %
Northeast	59.5 %	40.5 %
Midwest	59.3 %	40.7 %
South	57.5 %	42.5 %
Nation	59.7 %	40.3 %
Data source: 2024 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Methodology
The shares of outright homeowners and homeowners with mortgages are calculated using ACS 1-Year Estimates at the metro, state, regional, and national levels, based on owner-occupied housing units.

About Realtor.com^®
Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/metros-where-falling-mortgage-rates-could-spark-the-most-change-new-report-from-realtorcom-302566311.html

SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

Which U.S. metros have the highest percentage of mortgaged homes in 2025?

Washington D.C. leads with 73.6% of homes mortgaged, followed by Denver (72.9%), Virginia Beach (70.7%), and Raleigh (70.7%).

What percentage of existing mortgages have rates of 6% or lower?

According to the Realtor.com report, 81% of existing mortgages have interest rates of 6% or lower.

Which U.S. metros might see slower response to falling mortgage rates?

Miami (44.8%), Buffalo (44.2%), and Pittsburgh (44.2%) have the highest share of outright owners and may see slower response to rate changes.

How do mortgage ownership rates vary by U.S. region?

The West leads with 64.3% mortgaged homes, followed by Northeast (59.5%), Midwest (59.3%), and South (57.5%), compared to the national average of 59.7%.

What age group represents the majority of outright homeowners?

53.9% of outright homeowners were aged 65 and older in 2024, consistent with previous years' trends.