Redfin Corp Stock Price, News & Analysis

The Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles have caused significant damage to residential properties, destroying or damaging 14% of homes within the fire perimeters, totaling 6,354 homes. Of these, 5,449 (86%) were destroyed and 905 (14%) were damaged. Single-family homes represented 89% of affected properties, with 11% being multi-family units.

The impact has created intense competition in the rental market, with one property being bid up from $16,000 to $30,000 monthly. The fires have disrupted real estate transactions, with some buyers canceling deals and sellers opting to rent their properties to affected residents instead. The destruction exceeds Los Angeles County's annual single-family permit issuance of roughly 6,000, potentially exacerbating the region's existing housing shortage.

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports that pending home sales dropped 4.5% month-over-month in December 2024, marking the largest decline since October 2022. The decline was primarily driven by rising mortgage rates, which reached 7.04% by year-end after hitting a low of 6.6% in early December.

Nearly 40,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.2% of homes under contract - the highest December cancellation rate since records began in 2017. Despite this, existing home sales rose 0.7% month-over-month to 4,317,683 units annually, the highest level since February 2023.

The median U.S. home sale price increased 6.3% year-over-year to $427,670, marking the biggest annual gain since February. New listings fell 1.6% month-over-month, while homes typically spent 49 days on the market - the slowest December pace since 2019.

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports significant declines in home sales and listings due to multiple factors affecting the U.S. housing market. Pending home sales fell 8.4% year over year during the four weeks ending January 12, marking the largest decline since October 2023. The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index dropped 11% month over month to its lowest level since August.

The decline is attributed to Southern California wildfires, extreme weather conditions in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, and rising housing costs. The median housing payment is at its highest level in over two months, with home sale prices up 5.8% year over year. However, there are positive indicators: mortgage rates are falling following a softer-than-expected core inflation report, and mortgage-purchase applications have reached their highest level in nearly a year.

In Los Angeles, wildfires are simultaneously decreasing homebuying demand and listings while increasing demand from displaced residents seeking temporary housing. The median sale price nationwide stands at $379,609, with active listings up 9.8%, representing the smallest increase in nearly a year.

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports that U.S. median asking rents fell 0.3% year over year to $1,594 in December 2024, reaching the lowest level since March 2022. This represents a 6.2% decline from the August 2022 peak of $1,700.

The decline is attributed to increased housing supply, with apartment completions surging 58.1% year over year in Q3 2024, reaching the highest level since 1974. This has led to an 8% vacancy rate for buildings with five or more units.

The report shows declining rents across all apartment types, with 3+ bedrooms experiencing the largest drop (-2.5% to $1,950). Among major metros, Austin saw the steepest decline (-16.3%), followed by Tampa (-10.4%) and Jacksonville (-6.7%). Conversely, Providence led rent increases (12.6%), followed by Virginia Beach (10.9%).

Redfin's latest housing market report shows mixed signals at the start of 2025. The company's Homebuyer Demand Index recorded a 2% increase in tours and buying services both month-over-month and year-over-year. However, this hasn't translated into sales, with pending home sales falling 3.1% year-over-year.

The market is seeing daily average mortgage rates hit a seven-month high of 7.17%, while new listings decreased by 2.5%. Despite challenges, active listings are up 10.6% with the median sale price at $379,988, representing a 5.5% increase year-over-year. The median monthly mortgage payment stands at $2,525 at a 6.91% rate.

Regional variations are significant, with Milwaukee leading price increases at 19.5%, while Austin showed a 1% decline. Only 22.1% of homes sold above list price, down from 24% the previous year.

Redfin's recent survey reveals that 34% of U.S. homeowners say they'll never sell their homes, while 27% won't consider selling for at least 10 years. The survey shows generational differences, with 43% of baby boomers, 34% of Gen X, and 28% of millennial/Gen Z owners planning to never sell.

Among homeowners not planning to sell soon, 39% cite having their home paid off or nearly paid off as the main reason, while 37% simply like their current home. 30% are deterred by high home prices, and 18% want to keep their low mortgage rates. The current housing market shows home prices up about 40% since pre-pandemic, with average mortgage rates at 6.91%, compared to 4% in 2019.

This reluctance to sell has contributed to new listings remaining below pre-pandemic levels, with only 25 of every 1,000 U.S. homes changing hands in the first eight months of 2024, marking the lowest turnover rate in decades.

Redfin's latest report indicates that housing affordability in 2024 did not worsen for the first time in four years. However, the cost of buying a home remains high. A household earning the median US income of $83,782 would need to spend 41.8% of their earnings on the median-priced home at $429,734, down slightly from 42.2% in 2023 but still above the ideal 30% threshold.

Homebuyers need an income of $116,782 to afford the median-priced home, which is significantly higher than the median household income. The median monthly housing payment reached a record $2,920, up 4.3% from 2023 and 86% from 2019. Wage growth of around 4% year-over-year contributed to a slight improvement in affordability.

Texas metros like Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and Fort Worth saw the most significant improvements in affordability, while Anaheim and Chicago experienced the steepest declines. California metros remain the least affordable, with Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Anaheim topping the list. In contrast, Rust Belt metros like Pittsburgh and Detroit are among the most affordable.

Despite the slight improvement, Redfin's Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa notes that buying a home remains out of reach for many Americans, with prices expected to rise in 2025 due to low inventory.

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports an 8% year-over-year increase in new listings during the four weeks ending December 29, 2024, while total homes for sale rose 10%. The median sale price reached $383,750, up 6.4% year-over-year, marking the biggest increase since October 2022. Pending sales showed a slight decline of 1.1%, with mortgage rates remaining near 7%.

The median monthly mortgage payment stood at $2,515 at a 6.91% rate, up 8.1%. Market indicators show mixed signals, with mortgage-purchase applications down 13% from two weeks earlier. Among metro areas, Milwaukee led with the highest year-over-year price increase (17.4%), while San Francisco showed the strongest growth in new listings (48%).

Redfin (RDFN) reports that active housing listings reached their highest level since 2020 in November, increasing 0.5% month-over-month and 12.1% year-over-year. However, this surge is largely attributed to unsold homes, with 54.5% of listings remaining on the market for 60+ days - the highest November share since 2019.

The typical home took 43 days to sell, marking the slowest November pace since 2019. Miami leads among top 50 metros with 63.8% of stale listings, followed by Austin (62.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (62.3%). Florida and Texas show the highest shares of stale inventory due to increased construction, rising HOA fees, insurance costs, and natural disaster risks. Conversely, Providence, RI has the lowest share at 38.2% of listings staying on market for 60+ days.