RXO Releases the Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast

Key Terms

spot rates financial

Spot rates are the current prices or interest rates for buying or selling an asset or currency for immediate settlement, like the cash price you pay at a store today rather than a future promise to pay. Investors care because spot rates set the baseline for valuing investments, comparing returns across time, and pricing forward contracts or swaps; they reveal what the market demands now for taking on risk or providing liquidity.

asset-light technical

A business described as "asset-light" relies on few owned physical assets—such as factories, real estate, or heavy equipment—and instead uses partners, contractors, or lease arrangements to deliver products or services. For investors, this model can mean lower upfront investment, faster scaling and often higher profit margins, but it also increases dependence on outside providers and can create less predictable costs and supply risks—like renting tools instead of owning them.

• In the fourth quarter, truckload spot rates continued to rise year-over-year, and the growth rate accelerated from the third quarter of 2025, snapping a three-quarter trend

• Spot rates will rise year-over-year and sequentially in the first quarter as carrier capacity tightens relative to shipper demand

CHARLOTTE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- RXO (NYSE: RXO) a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, today released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast.

Truckload rates rose in the fourth quarter according to the latest Curve update, which recaps fourth-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a first-quarter freight market forecast.

Spot rates, as measured by the Curve, have been increasing year-over-year since the first quarter of 2024, but the rate of inflation had been decelerating for the past three quarters. In the fourth quarter, though, there was a pronounced shift back into greater truckload rate inflation, and the first quarter (through February 13th) is pushing the index even higher.

Highlights from the report include:

• Spot rates increased 5.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, greater than the 1.8% reading in the third quarter of 2025.
• Though freight volumes remain somewhat muted, continued attrition in carrier capacity, combined with some late peak season volatility and winter storms, is causing disruption.
• While spot rates have been increasing, carriers still remain under immense cost pressure, and capacity continues to leave the market, creating a fragile balance of supply and demand.

“There was a significant market shift in the fourth quarter, especially in the month of December. Over the last two years, while we’ve had some spikes, the market couldn’t seem to sustain any significant upward momentum and would return to baseline shortly afterwards,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “This time has been different, as we’ve seen the market continue to run hot well after the busy holiday season. January and February are historically the slowest shipping months of the year, yet we’ve seen a market that is outpacing seasonality when we look at every major network KPI.”

Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, “Carriers have been under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, causing thousands to leave the market over the past three years. Additionally, over the last few quarters, regulatory changes and enforcement have rapidly accelerated driver attrition, contributing to an increased market imbalance. On the demand side, though both the U.S. consumer and shippers may be hesitant, there are some reasons for optimism including recent industrial production data and government stimulus actions. We’re already in a fragile shipping environment, and any increase in demand will drive rates and volatility even higher.”

To read the full first-quarter Curve report, visit https://rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide/.

The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.

About RXO
RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260223143360/en/

Media

Nina Reinhardt

nina.reinhardt@rxo.com



Investor

Kevin Sterling

kevin.sterling@rxo.com

Source: RXO