RXO’s Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast Shows the Biggest Sequential Increase in Truckload Spot Rates Since 2021

Key Terms

truckload spot rate index technical

An index that measures the prevailing short-term price to hire a full truck for a single shipment on the spot market, compiled from actual transactions or posted spot quotes across routes and equipment types. Like a price gauge for last-minute taxi rides for freight, it shows how much shippers are paying right now to move goods and matters to investors because rising or falling spot rates signal changes in transportation costs, supply‑and‑demand balance in logistics, and potential margin or inflation pressure for companies that move or sell physical goods.

routing guides technical

Routing guides are the detailed instructions a company gives to suppliers and carriers about how to ship products, including preferred carriers, packaging, labeling, routing, and invoicing procedures — like a logistics playbook that standardizes how deliveries are handled. Investors care because routing guides shape shipping costs, delivery speed and reliability, inventory levels, and compliance risk; well-designed guides can lower expenses and prevent stockouts, while poor guides can increase costs and disrupt operations.

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• The Curve, RXO’s proprietary truckload spot rate index, reached its highest level in more than four years
• In the third quarter to date, the Curve has continued to rise both year-over-year and sequentially, as carrier capacity continues to tighten relative to shipper demand

CHARLOTTE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- RXO (NYSE: RXO) a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, today released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, which shows rapidly rising truckload spot rates, excluding the impacts of fuel.

In the second quarter, spot rates, as measured by the Curve, rose 32.4% year-over-year, up from 16.5% in the first quarter, marking the ninth consecutive inflationary reading. The index has not experienced this level of rate inflation since pandemic-era surges, with the second quarter hitting both the highest year-over-year reading and largest sequential increase since the second quarter of 2021.

Through August 21, the Curve is on pace to finish the third quarter at an even higher mark than the second quarter.

The continued surge in rates is the result of continued attrition of carrier capacity, driven by federal regulation enforcement, which has led to a supply imbalance relative to demand.

“In the second quarter, truckload spot rates rose at an even faster pace than in the first quarter and consistently outpaced contract rates, which put increased strain on shippers’ routing guides,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “That trend is not only continuing but picking up steam as we head into peak season. Though we’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary environment for over two years, the truckload market is starting to feel materially different.”

Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, “Though overall freight volumes remain muted, shippers are still experiencing significant rate volatility due to decreased carrier capacity, as drivers continue to exit the market as a result of federal regulations and enforcement. While rising freight rates have helped carriers offset some of their own inflationary pressures, profitability is still challenged. Carrier operating costs are nearly 30% higher, excluding fuel, when compared to the previous market peak. Any sustained increase in shipping volumes will further strain an already diminished supply base and add more inflationary pressure on rates.”

To read the full third-quarter Curve report, visit https://rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide/.

The Curve exemplifies RXO’s commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.

About RXO
RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260825945596/en/

Media Contact
Nina Reinhardt
nina.reinhardt@rxo.com

Investor Contact
Kevin Sterling
kevin.sterling@rxo.com

Source: RXO