Shell plc publishes fourth quarter 2025 press release
Rhea-AI Summary
Shell (SHEL) reported resilient cash generation in 2025 with free cash flow $26.1B and CFFO $42.9B, increased dividend (+4% to $0.372/qtr) and a $3.5B share buyback program expected completed by the Q1 2026 results announcement. Net debt was about $45.7B (gearing 20.7%).
Shell delivered $5.1B of structural cost savings since 2022, cash capex was $20.9B in 2025 with a 2026 outlook of $20–22B. Material portfolio moves and operational metrics were highlighted across Integrated Gas, Upstream, Chemicals and Renewables.
Positive
- Free cash flow of $26.1B for FY 2025
- Cash from operations (CFFO) of $42.9B in 2025
- Declared 4% dividend increase and commenced $3.5B buyback
- Structural cost reductions of $5.1B since 2022
- Disciplined cash capex outlook of $20–22B for 2026
Negative
- FY 2025 adjusted earnings fell to $18.5B from $23.7B (≈22% decline)
- Free cash flow declined ≈34% YoY from $39.5B to $26.1B
- Chemicals sales volumes dropped 22% YoY
- Net debt increased from $38.8B to $45.7B (≈18% rise)
- Brent average fell 14% YoY, evidencing weaker macro pricing
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, SHEL declined 5.28%, reflecting a notable negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
SHEL is up 1.49% with strong Q4/FY metrics and capital returns. Key peers are mostly positive but mixed: CVX +1.31%, XOM +2.41%, TTE +0.84%, while BP -0.05% and PBR -0.66%, suggesting a company-specific tilt rather than a uniform sector rotation.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 | Share buy-back update | Positive | -0.6% | Disclosure of 1,361,056 shares repurchased and cancelled under buy-back programme. |
| Jan 30 | Capital structure update | Positive | -0.6% | Voting rights update confirming 5,687,196,643 ordinary shares and no treasury shares. |
| Jan 29 | Share buy-back activity | Positive | +2.2% | Purchase and cancellation of 1,351,003 shares across LSE and XAMS venues. |
| Jan 28 | Share buy-back activity | Positive | +0.5% | Disclosure of 1,080,959 shares repurchased and cancelled as part of buy-back. |
| Jan 26 | Share buy-back activity | Positive | -0.7% | Purchase of 1,313,901 shares for cancellation under existing buy-back programme. |
Recent news flow has been dominated by buy-back disclosures that often saw modest, mixed price reactions, with several instances of slight declines despite shareholder-friendly activity.
Recent news over late January 2026 focused on Shell’s ongoing share buy-back programme, with multiple days of repurchases and cancellations across LSE and XAMS. Daily volumes ranged around 1.1–1.4 million shares, and filings included voting rights updates showing no treasury shares. Price reactions were modest, often slightly negative despite the supportive capital-return story. Today’s Q4/FY 2025 release adds full financial context, including free cash flow, net debt, and dividend/buyback actions, building on that capital allocation narrative.
Market Pulse Summary
The stock moved -5.3% in the session following this news. A negative reaction despite these results would contrast with Shell’s messaging of disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns, including $26 billion free cash flow and a larger dividend and buyback. Past buy-back announcements sometimes coincided with modest declines, suggesting that strong capital-return headlines have not always supported the share price. Investors might watch whether concerns around lower year-on-year earnings or macro softness outweigh the cash-generation story.
Key Terms
adjusted earnings financial
adjusted ebITDA financial
free cash flow financial
cffo financial
net debt financial
gearing financial
lng technical
mmbtu technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
London, February 5, 2026
"2025 was a year of accelerated momentum, with strong operational and financial performance across Shell. We generated free cash flow of
In Q4, despite lower earnings in a softer macro, cash delivery remained solid and today we announce a
Shell plc Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan
CONSISTENT DELIVERY WITH MORE TO COME
• Q4 2025 Adjusted Earnings1 of
• Resilient CFFO of
• Strong balance sheet with net debt of ~
• Structural cost reductions of
• Disciplined capital allocation with 2025 cash capex of
• Increasing dividend per share by
• Significant strategic portfolio actions taken throughout 2025, including Nigeria Onshore, Canadian Oil Sands and Singapore Chemicals & Refinery exits, while strengthening our Integrated Gas and Upstream portfolios with Pavilion acquisition & equity increases across our Deepwater portfolio.
| $ million1 | Adj. Earnings | Adj. EBITDA | CFFO | Cash capex | |
| Integrated Gas | 1,661 | 4,127 | 3,956 | 1,207 | |
| Upstream | 1,570 | 6,114 | 4,287 | 2,682 | |
| Marketing | 578 | 1,604 | (75) | 688 | |
| Chemicals & Products3 | (66) | 939 | 1,775 | 1,016 | |
| Renewables & Energy Solutions (R&ES) | 131 | 329 | (405) | 391 | |
| Corporate | (567) | (313) | (100) | 31 | |
| Less: Non-controlling interest (NCI) | 51 | ||||
| Shell | Q4 2025 | 3,256 | 12,799 | 9,438 | 6,015 |
| Q3 2025 | 5,432 | 14,773 | 12,207 | 4,907 | |
| FY 2025 | 18,529 | 56,135 | 42,863 | 20,915 | |
| FY 2024 | 23,716 | 65,803 | 54,687 | 21,085 | |
1Income/(loss) attributable to shareholders for Q4 2025 is
2Progress to date on the financial targets that were announced during Capital Markets Day in March 2025 are available at www.shell.com/2025-progress-on-cmd25.html.
3Chemicals & Products Adjusted Earnings at a subsegment level are as follows - Chemicals
• CFFO excluding working capital of
| $ billion2 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
| Working capital | 2.4 | (2.7) | (0.4) | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Divestment proceeds | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow | 8.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 4.2 |
| Net debt | 38.8 | 41.5 | 43.2 | 41.2 | 45.7 |
1 Includes
2 Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the unaudited results, available at www.shell.com/investors.
Q4 2025 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
INTEGRATED GAS
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 outlook |
| Realised liquids price ($/bbl) | 58 | 55 | — |
| Realised gas price ($/thousand scf) | 7.3 | 6.8 | — |
| Production (kboe/d) | 934 | 948 | 920 - 980 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.4 - 8.0 |
| LNG sales volumes (MT) | 18.9 | 19.8 | — |
• Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q3 2025, reflecting higher tax charges. Lower prices were offset by higher volumes.
UPSTREAM
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 outlook |
| Realised liquids price ($/bbl) | 64 | 59 | — |
| Realised gas price ($/thousand scf) | 6.5 | 6.2 | — |
| Liquids production (kboe/d) | 1,399 | 1,393 | — |
| Gas production (million scf/d) | 2,513 | 2,894 | — |
| Total production (kboe/d) | 1,832 | 1,892 | 1,700 - 1,900 |
• Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q3 2025, reflecting lower liquids prices.
• Q1 2026 outlook includes the impact of the Adura JV incorporation.
MARKETING
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 outlook |
| Marketing sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,824 | 2,701 | 2,550 - 2,750 |
| Mobility (kb/d) | 2,055 | 1,959 | — |
| Lubricants (kb/d) | 88 | 83 | — |
| Sectors & Decarbonisation (kb/d) | 681 | 658 | — |
• Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q3 2025, reflecting seasonally lower volumes and a (non-cash) deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture.
CHEMICALS & PRODUCTS
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 Outlook1 |
| Refinery processing intake (kb/d) | 1,176 | 1,178 | — |
| Chemicals sales volumes (kT) | 2,147 | 2,136 | — |
| Refinery utilisation (%) | 96 | 95 | 90 - 98 |
| Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation (%) | 80 | 76 | 79 - 87 |
| Indicative refining margin (Updated $/bbl) | 11.6 | 13.8 | — |
| Indicative chemical margin (Updated $/t) | 160 | 140 | — |
1 Oil sands production: In Q4 2025, Shell's remaining interest in the Canadian oil sands was swapped for an additional
• Adjusted Earnings were lower than in Q3 2025, reflecting seasonally lower trading and optimisation, continued weak Chemicals margins and a (non-cash) deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture.
RENEWABLES & ENERGY SOLUTIONS
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
| External power sales (TWh) | 72 | 72 |
| Sales of pipeline gas to end-use customers (TWh) | 150 | 160 |
| Renewables power generation capacity (GW)1 | 6.4 | 6.1 |
| 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 2.6 | 1.9 |
1 Excludes Shell's equity share of associates where information cannot be obtained.
• Adjusted Earnings were in line with Q3 2025.
The Renewables and Energy Solutions segment includes renewable power generation; the marketing, trading and optimisation of power and pipeline gas; and carbon credits. It also includes the production and marketing of hydrogen; development of commercial carbon capture and storage hubs; investment in nature-based projects that avoid or reduce carbon emissions; and Shell Ventures, which invests in or works with start-ups and other early-stage businesses to help them scale-up and grow.
CORPORATE
| Key data | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 outlook |
| Adjusted Earnings ($ billion) | (0.4) | (0.6) | (0.6) - (0.4) |
2025 FULL YEAR
| $ billion | Adj. Earnings | CFFO excl. WC | CFFO | Cash capex | Free cash flow |
| FY 2025 | 18.5 | 44.7 | 42.9 | 20.9 | 26.1 |
| FY 2024 | 23.7 | 52.6 | 54.7 | 21.1 | 39.5 |
| Operational performance | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | % change |
| Oil and gas production (kboe/d) | 2,836 | 2,801 | (1)% |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 29.1 | 28.4 | (2)% |
| Marketing sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,843 | 2,753 | (3)% |
| Refinery processing intake (kb/d) | 1,344 | 1,217 | (9)% |
| Chemicals sales volumes (kT) | 11,875 | 9,260 | (22)% |
| Macro indicators | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | % change |
| Brent ($/bbl) | 81 | 69 | (14)% |
| Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) | 2.2 | 3.5 | |
| EU TTF ($/MMBtu) | 11.0 | 11.9 | |
| Indicative refining margin ($/bbl) | 7.8 | 10.1 | |
| Indicative chemicals margin ($/t) | 152 | 148 | (3)% |
UPCOMING INVESTOR EVENTS
March 16, 2026 LNG Outlook publication and LNG Portfolio: Strategic Spotlight1
May 7, 2026 First quarter 2026 results and dividends
May 19, 2026 Annual General Meeting
July 30, 2026 Second quarter 2026 results and dividends
October 29, 2026 Third quarter 2026 results and dividends
1 Together with 2025 AGM shareholder resolution response
USEFUL LINKS
Results materials Q4 2025
Quarterly Databook Q4 2025
Webcast registration Q4 2025
Dividend announcement Q4 2025
Capital Markets Day 2025 materials
Financial Modelling Guidance
ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE (NON-GAAP) MEASURES
This announcement includes certain measures that are calculated and presented on the basis of methodologies other than in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) such as IFRS, including Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, CFFO excluding working capital movements, free cash flow, Divestment proceeds and Net debt. This information, along with comparable GAAP measures, is useful to investors because it provides a basis for measuring Shell plc’s operating performance and ability to retire debt and invest in new business opportunities. Shell plc’s management uses these financial measures, along with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, in evaluating the business performance.
This announcement may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted Earnings and divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are estimated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc’s consolidated financial statements.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement, “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience to reference Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. “Subsidiaries”, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The terms “joint venture”, “joint operations”, “joint arrangements”, and “associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”; “ambition”; “anticipate”; “aspire”; “aspiration”; ‘‘believe’’; “commit”; “commitment”; ‘‘could’’; “desire”; ‘‘estimate’’; ‘‘expect’’; ‘‘goals’’; ‘‘intend’’; ‘‘may’’; “milestones”; ‘‘objectives’’; ‘‘outlook’’; ‘‘plan’’; ‘‘probably’’; ‘‘project’’; ‘‘risks’’; “schedule”; ‘‘seek’’; ‘‘should’’; ‘‘target’’; “vision”; ‘‘will’’; “would” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks, including climate change; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including tariffs and regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, regional conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East, and a significant cyber security, data privacy or IT incident; (n) the pace of the energy transition; and (o) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F and amendment thereto for the year ended December 31, 2024 (available at www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.html and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this announcement and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, February 5, 2026. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this announcement.
All amounts shown throughout this announcement are unaudited. The numbers presented throughout this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures, due to rounding.
Shell’s Net Carbon Intensity
Also, in this announcement, we may refer to Shell’s “net carbon intensity” (NCI), which includes Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell’s NCI also includes the emissions associated with the production and use of energy products produced by others which Shell purchases for resale. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the terms Shell’s “net carbon intensity” or NCI is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.
Shell’s Net-Zero Emissions Target
Shell’s operating plan and outlook are forecasted for a three-year period and ten-year period, respectively, and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next three and ten years. Accordingly, the outlook reflects our Scope 1, Scope 2 and NCI targets over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plan and outlook cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target, as this target is outside our planning period. Such future operating plans and outlooks could include changes to our portfolio, efficiency improvements and the use of carbon capture and storage and carbon credits. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans and outlooks to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.
The content of websites referred to in this announcement does not form part of this announcement.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F and any amendment thereto, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
The financial information presented in this announcement does not constitute statutory accounts within the meaning of section 434(3) of the Companies Act 2006 (the "Act”). Statutory accounts for the year ended December 31, 2024 were published in Shell’s Annual Report and Accounts, a copy of which was delivered to the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales. The auditor’s report on those accounts was unqualified, did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditor drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying the report and did not contain a statement under sections 498(2) or 498(3) of the Act.
The information in this announcement does not constitute the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements which are contained in Shell’s fourth quarter 2025 and full year 2025 unaudited results available on www.shell.com/investors.
CONTACTS
- Media: International +44 207 934 5550; U.S. and Canada: Contact form
FAQ
How much cash did Shell (SHEL) generate in 2025 and what does it mean for investors?
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What is Shell's (SHEL) 2026 cash capex outlook and operational guidance highlights?
