Bain & Company and StepStone Group Release 2026 Private Equity GP Outlook

Rhea-AI Summary

StepStone (NYSE:STEP) and Bain released their 2026 Private Equity GP Outlook based on a Dec 2025–Jan 2026 survey of 100+ GP investment and IR professionals across North America and Europe. Key themes: value creation as the primary return driver, valuation as the top deal obstacle, rising use of continuation vehicles, fee pressure and discounts, sustained demand for co-investments, and growing secondary-market importance.

The report highlights AI helping deal sourcing and diligence, while ~40% of GPs expect no material AI financial impact in 2026 within portfolios.

Positive

• 25% of GPs launched or completed continuation vehicles recently
• About 33% of GPs offered scale or early-bird discounts on flagship funds
• Strong demand for co-investments that execute swiftly at scale
• Generative AI reported highest returns in sourcing and due diligence

Negative

• Valuation disagreements cited as the top reason deals failed to close in 2025
• Nearly 40% of GPs do not expect material AI financial impact in 2026
• Fee pressure and discounts are reshaping fund economics for GPs

Key Figures

Survey participants: 100+ professionals Continuation vehicle adoption: One quarter of GPs Planned continuation vehicles: Roughly 40% of GPs +2 more

5 metrics

Survey participants 100+ professionals Investment and IR professionals across North America and Europe

Continuation vehicle adoption One quarter of GPs Reported having recently launched or completed a continuation vehicle

Planned continuation vehicles Roughly 40% of GPs Expect to explore a continuation vehicle in next year or two

Fee discounts About one third of GPs Offered scale or early-bird discounts on last flagship fundraise

AI portfolio impact expectations Nearly 40% of GPs Do not expect material financial impact from AI in 2026

Market Reality Check

Price: $43.14 Vol: Volume 3,053,084 is 1.63x...

high vol

$43.14 Last Close

Volume Volume 3,053,084 is 1.63x the 20-day average of 1,871,434, indicating elevated trading activity ahead of this release. high

Technical Pre-news price 43.14 trades below the 200-day MA 61.68 and closer to the 52-week low 40.07 than the high 77.795.

Peers on Argus

STEP fell 8.17% with above-average volume, while key asset-management peers were...

STEP fell 8.17% with above-average volume, while key asset-management peers were also negative but less so: HLNE -0.36%, JHG -1.35%, OBDC -2.25%, AMG -0.55%, BXSL -1.12%. The direction matches sector peers, but STEP’s move is notably larger.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 26 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 26	Conference presentation	Neutral	+0.9%	Announcement of management presenting at RBC financial institutions conference.
Feb 12	Distribution partnership	Positive	-4.6%	Partnership with Utmost to expand UK access to private markets strategies.
Feb 05	Earnings and dividend	Positive	+5.5%	Third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and declaration of $0.28 per share dividend.
Jan 27	Platform expansion	Positive	+0.1%	Hiring veteran investor and launching S-Core Core/Core+ real estate platform.
Jan 22	Earnings date set	Neutral	+0.4%	Scheduling and call details for third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has mostly seen modest price moves, with one notable negative reaction to a partnership announcement.

Recent Company History

Over recent months, STEP’s news flow included an earnings release with a dividend, platform expansion, partnerships, conference appearances, and scheduling of results. The Feb 5, 2026 earnings report and dividend coincided with a +5.51% move, while the Feb 12, 2026 Utmost partnership saw a -4.6% reaction despite a growth-focused message. Other corporate updates, such as the S-Core launch and conference appearances, produced only small moves, suggesting investors tend to react more strongly to fundamental or distribution-related items than to strategic or marketing updates.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement outlines private equity GPs’ expectations for 2026, highlighting emphasis on opera...

Analysis

This announcement outlines private equity GPs’ expectations for 2026, highlighting emphasis on operational value creation, sustained co-investment demand, and growing use of secondaries and continuation vehicles. For STEP, it provides qualitative context around areas like deal sourcing, diligence, and AI adoption rather than company-specific financial updates. Investors may compare these themes with recent earnings, regulatory filings, and insider trading patterns to assess how closely the firm’s trajectory tracks broader industry dynamics.

Key Terms

co-investments, secondary market, continuation vehicles, generative ai

4 terms

co-investments financial

"sustained demand for co-investments, and continued growth of secondaries"

Co-investments are situations where one or more investors put money directly into a specific deal alongside a lead investor, rather than only investing in a pooled fund. Think of it like joining a friend to buy a single rental property instead of contributing to a real estate club; co-investing can give investors bigger exposure to a particular opportunity, lower overall fees, and more control, but also concentrates risk in that single investment.

secondary market financial

"the secondary market will remain an important portfolio-management tool"

The secondary market is where investors buy and sell financial assets, such as stocks or bonds, after they have been initially issued. It functions like a marketplace where ownership changes hands, allowing investors to cash out or acquire investments more easily. This market provides liquidity, making it easier for people to turn their investments into cash or find new opportunities.

continuation vehicles financial

"The use of continuation vehicles is normalizing."

A continuation vehicle is a new investment entity set up to buy one or more assets from an existing private equity or venture fund so managers can keep running those assets for longer. For investors this matters because it changes when and how they get cash, what valuation they accept, and what fees or oversight apply; think of it like moving a property you still want to manage into a new ownership structure so some owners can cash out while others stay invested.

generative ai technical

"GPs report the highest returns from generative AI in deal sourcing"

Generative AI is a type of computer technology that can create new content, like text, images, or music, on its own. It’s important because it can produce realistic and useful material quickly, which could change how we create art, write stories, or even develop new products. Think of it as a smart robot that can invent and produce things almost like a human.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Survey finds value creation to be a critical driver of success, sustained demand for co-investments, and continued growth of secondaries as a portfolio management tool

BOSTON and NEW YORK, March 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bain & Company and StepStone Group today released findings from their inaugural GP Outlook, offering a forward-looking view of how buyout general partners are approaching 2026 amid shifting deal dynamics and evolving liquidity conditions.

Conducted between December 2025 and January 2026, the survey captured insights from 100+ investment and investor relations professionals, primarily across North America and Europe. The goal: to complement backward-looking performance data with a view of what GPs are seeing, underwriting, and planning for the year ahead.

“This survey highlights how GPs are adapting to an ever-evolving investment environment,” said Lindsay Creedon, Partner and StepStone’s Head of Private Equity. “While expectations around exits improved coming into 2026, valuations remain a key obstacle in diligence processes. A focus on driving returns through operational value creation, including the impact of AI, is paramount. In addition, liquidity remains top of mind, so the secondary market will remain an important portfolio-management tool for GPs and LPs alike.”

Key findings

• Many GPs will have to up their value-creation game. Without the benefit of multiple expansion and perhaps even increased multiple volatility, GPs that can find a repeatable model for sourcing deals, determine early how to create value, and execute at speed, may generate better returns.
• Price remains the biggest deal obstacle. Even more than typical diligence issues or macroeconomic volatility, the most common reason deals failed to close in 2025 was an inability to agree on valuation.
• The use of continuation vehicles is normalizing. One quarter of GPs report having recently launched or completed a continuation vehicle, and roughly 40% expect to explore one in the next year or two, primarily to return capital to investors.
• Fee pressure and discounts are reshaping fund economics. About a third of GPs offered either scale or early-bird discounts to investors while raising their last flagship fund. GPs remain keen to offer co-investment opportunities to LPs that can execute swiftly at scale.
• AI impact is strongest in deals, less certain in portfolios. GPs report the highest returns from generative AI in deal sourcing and due diligence. Within portfolio companies, benefits skew toward cost savings, with nearly 40% of GPs not expecting material financial impact from AI in 2026.
  

“What we’re seeing in this survey reinforces what we outlined in our Global Private Equity Report: the industry has reached an inflection point,” said Hugh MacArthur, Chairman of Bain’s Global Private Equity Practice. “Multiples aren’t doing the heavy lifting anymore and new deals are harder to pencil out. In this environment, alpha has to be earned operationally and that requires sharper strategy, better data, and real execution discipline.”

To access the full report, click here.

About StepStone Group

StepStone Group Inc. (Nasdaq: STEP) is a global private markets investment firm focused on providing customized investment solutions and advisory and data services to its clients. As of December 31, 2025, StepStone was responsible for approximately $811 billion of total capital, including $220 billion of assets under management. StepStone’s clients include some of the world’s largest public and private defined benefit and defined contribution pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies, as well as prominent endowments, foundations, family offices and private wealth clients, which include high-net-worth and mass affluent individuals. StepStone partners with its clients to develop and build private markets portfolios designed to meet their specific objectives across the private equity, infrastructure, private debt and real estate asset classes.

For more information, visit StepStone Group.

About Bain & Company

 Bain & Company is a global consultancy that helps the world’s most ambitious change makers define the future.

Across 65 cities in 40 countries, we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results, outperform the competition, and redefine industries. We complement our tailored, integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better, faster, and more enduring outcomes. Our 10-year commitment to invest more than $1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent, expertise, and insight to organizations tackling today’s urgent challenges in education, racial equity, social justice, economic development, and the environment. We earned a platinum rating from EcoVadis, the leading platform for environmental, social, and ethical performance ratings for global supply chains, putting us in the top 1% of all companies. Since our founding in 1973, we have measured our success by the success of our clients, and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry.

Contacts

Shareholder Relations:
Seth Weiss
shareholders@stepstonegroup.com
1-212-351-6106

Media:
Brian Ruby / Chris Gillick / Matt Lettiero, ICR
StepStonePR@icrinc.com
1-203-682-8268

FAQ

What does the 2026 GP Outlook say about valuation issues for private equity (STEP)?

Valuation disagreements were the leading reason deals failed to close in 2025, more than diligence or macro factors. According to Bain and StepStone, price remained the biggest deal obstacle, constraining deal flow and making underwriting more cautious for 2026.

How widespread are continuation vehicles among GPs in the 2026 StepStone/Bain survey?

One quarter of GPs reported recently launching or completing a continuation vehicle. According to Bain and StepStone, roughly 40% of GPs expect to explore continuation vehicles in the next year or two to return capital to investors.

What role does AI play in private equity according to the 2026 GP Outlook (STEP)?

AI shows strongest benefits in deal sourcing and due diligence rather than portfolio P&L improvements. According to Bain and StepStone, GPs cite highest returns from generative AI in sourcing, while ~40% see no material portfolio financial impact in 2026.

How are fees and investor discounts changing fund economics per the 2026 GP Outlook (STEP)?

About one-third of GPs offered scale or early-bird discounts when raising their last flagship fund. According to Bain and StepStone, fee pressure and discounts are reshaping fund economics and prompting greater co-investment offerings to LPs.

What does the survey say about the secondary market's importance for private equity (STEP)?

The secondary market is expected to remain an important portfolio-management tool for GPs and LPs amid liquidity concerns. According to Bain and StepStone, continued secondary growth reflects liquidity focus and normalization of continuation vehicles.