Zillow names Jacksonville the best market for first-time buyers this spring
Rhea-AI Summary
Zillow (Z) names Jacksonville the best market for first-time buyers in spring 2026, followed by Birmingham, San Antonio, Atlanta and Houston. Six of the top 10 markets are in the Sun Belt, where recovering inventory and relative affordability improve access for first-time buyers.
Across top-ranked metros, up to 68% of listings are affordable to a median-income household; overall inventory remains about 20% below pre-pandemic norms, and rent burdens vary widely by market.
Positive
- Jacksonville ranked No.1 among 50 largest U.S. metros for first-time buyers (April 2, 2026)
- Six of top 10 markets are in the Sun Belt, reflecting faster inventory recovery
- Up to 68% of listings are affordable to a median-income household in leading markets
Negative
- Overall inventory remains 20% below pre-pandemic norms, limiting supply
News Market Reaction – ZG
In the Apr 2 session, ZG gained 0.42%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | 24h Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | Product expansion | Positive | -3.8% | Rapid brokerage uptake of Zillow Preview pre-market listing product. |
| Mar 25 | AI feature launch | Positive | -3.8% | Launch of Zillow AI mode to guide users through housing journey. |
| Mar 24 | AI summit outlook | Positive | +0.8% | AI Summit for Investors with mid-cycle targets and 2026 guidance. |
| Mar 24 | Guidance correction | Neutral | +0.8% | Correction release reiterating AI strategy and financial guidance figures. |
| Mar 24 | Research insights | Neutral | +0.8% | Research on home features and listing strategies that command price premiums. |
24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.
Recent positive product and strategy updates have sometimes been met with negative or muted price reactions, while broader AI and strategy communications saw modestly positive alignment.
Over the past weeks, Zillow highlighted its AI-native housing platform, reaffirming Q1 2026 guidance of $700–$710 million revenue and $160–$175 million Adjusted EBITDA, plus mid-cycle targets of $5B revenue, 45% Adjusted EBITDA margin and 25% net income margin. It also promoted Zillow Preview adoption and research on home features that sell for more. Despite largely positive strategic and product news, some announcements saw negative or muted price reactions, providing context for how this new market-ranking PR fits into a broader branding and data narrative.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
Improving affordability and rising inventory are easing the path to homeownership in markets across the Sun Belt and Midwest
Jacksonville ranks No. 1 among the 50 largestU.S. metros for first-time buyers, followed byBirmingham ,San Antonio ,Atlanta andHouston .- Six of the top 10 markets are in the Sun Belt, where improving inventory and relative affordability make for better conditions for first-time buyers.
- Top-ranked markets combine lower rent burdens, more affordable listings and less competition, creating a clearer path to homeownership. In top-ranked markets, up to
68% of listings are affordable to a median-income household.
Zillow's best markets for first-time home buyers in 2026:
Jacksonville Birmingham San Antonio Atlanta Houston St. Louis Detroit Raleigh Baltimore Louisville
"First-time buyers are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel," said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. "Affordability is still a challenge, but rising incomes, stabilizing prices and improving inventory are creating real opportunities in parts of the country. In the strongest markets for first-time buyers, they'll find more choices, less competition and a clearer path to homeownership than they've had in years."
Even in the most favorable markets, challenges remain. Rising mortgage rates have eaten into affordability gains, and inventory remains
Conditions vary widely across the country. In many large coastal metros, high home prices and rents continue to make it difficult for renters to save for a down payment, while limited affordable inventory keeps competition relatively strong. In contrast, many markets in the South and Midwest offer a more favorable combination of affordability and availability.
Sun Belt markets make up the majority of the list in large part because inventory there has recovered more quickly, providing more options and easing competition for home shoppers. Midwestern markets continue to stand out for relative affordability, allowing first-time buyers to more easily compete with deeper-pocketed repeat buyers.
Zillow previously ranked this year's most buyer-friendly markets, led by
Tips for buyers:
- Buyers in a top market should take advantage of their negotiating power. More homes within reach and less competition can create more room to negotiate on price and terms. A great agent can help spot opportunities and negotiate effectively.
- In tougher markets, flexibility is key. Broadening a search or adjusting expectations can help unlock more options.
Tips for sellers:
- Price with today's buyers in mind. Affordability is still a constraint, especially for first-time buyers, so realistic pricing can help attract stronger interest.
- Use early buyer signals to your advantage. Zillow Preview℠ allows sellers to gauge demand through saves, shares and tour requests before their listing officially hits the market, helping refine pricing and marketing strategy.
Methodology
Zillow's ranking evaluates conditions in the 50 largest
- Rent affordability, measured as the share of median household income spent on typical rent.
- The share of for-sale listings affordable to a median-income household.
- The number of affordable listings relative to the number of renter households, a proxy for expected competition.
- The share of households headed by people ages 29–43, a key home-buying cohort, to measure a market's appeal to buyers looking to build a community among their peers.
Metropolitan | Rent Burden: Share of | Affordable Listings for | Affordable Listings | Share of |
23.1 % | 47.8 % | 5.9 | 36.3 % | |
21.1 % | 55.6 % | 6.2 | 32.9 % | |
20.2 % | 47.4 % | 4.5 | 36.4 % | |
22.3 % | 45.2 % | 4.3 | 37.4 % | |
22.7 % | 40.2 % | 3.1 | 39.7 % | |
19.5 % | 67.7 % | 3.6 | 33.3 % | |
21.8 % | 64.8 % | 4.2 | 32.8 % | |
18.4 % | 48.0 % | 2.7 | 35.9 % | |
21.5 % | 61.8 % | 3.0 | 34.5 % | |
20.9 % | 54.1 % | 3.8 | 33.8 % | |
21.3 % | 57.6 % | 3.7 | 33.4 % | |
17.9 % | 30.4 % | 1.9 | 39.1 % | |
21.1 % | 49.2 % | 1.8 | 37.6 % | |
19.4 % | 33.2 % | 2.1 | 38.8 % | |
22.6 % | 41.0 % | 3.0 | 37.4 % | |
19.9 % | 38.2 % | 2.6 | 36.9 % | |
23.8 % | 46.4 % | 3.3 | 35.9 % | |
27.0 % | 29.0 % | 2.7 | 39.8 % | |
23.3 % | 53.9 % | 2.1 | 35.3 % | |
21.8 % | 33.0 % | 3.6 | 35.2 % | |
21.1 % | 62.9 % | 4.1 | 29.4 % | |
20.1 % | 56.1 % | 3.2 | 31.6 % | |
19.4 % | 53.7 % | 3.1 | 31.5 % | |
21.5 % | 60.8 % | 3.2 | 31.2 % | |
28.6 % | 32.4 % | 4.5 | 36.3 % | |
18.1 % | 29.8 % | 1.6 | 37.1 % | |
22.1 % | 21.5 % | 0.6 | 41.3 % | |
20.3 % | 47.7 % | 1.8 | 34.3 % | |
21.6 % | 70.9 % | 1.7 | 31.2 % | |
21.1 % | 40.3 % | 4.3 | 31.1 % | |
24.6 % | 39.9 % | 2.5 | 34.6 % | |
23.2 % | 14.0 % | 0.2 | 41.7 % | |
20.4 % | 24.9 % | 1.1 | 37.1 % | |
22.6 % | 55.6 % | 2.8 | 30.4 % | |
26.8 % | 43.5 % | 1.7 | 35.9 % | |
24.5 % | 28.0 % | 2.5 | 35.8 % | |
22.8 % | 38.4 % | 1.4 | 35.3 % | |
22.8 % | 29.0 % | 2.3 | 34.6 % | |
21.8 % | 50.3 % | 1.8 | 31.8 % | |
37.3 % | 29.6 % | 5.0 | 34.4 % | |
25.9 % | 20.1 % | 0.4 | 38.4 % | |
28.8 % | 22.9 % | 2.2 | 35.7 % | |
30.9 % | 16.6 % | 1.3 | 38.2 % | |
25.4 % | 17.0 % | 0.7 | 35.8 % | |
29.8 % | 11.3 % | 0.3 | 39.1 % | |
22.8 % | 42.0 % | 1.1 | 30.0 % | |
29.7 % | 19.5 % | 0.5 | 34.5 % | |
33.9 % | 5.6 % | 0.1 | 36.3 % | |
29.1 % | 11.6 % | 0.3 | 31.6 % | |
37.1 % | 16.3 % | 0.5 | 33.3 % |
* | A listing is considered affordable if the monthly mortgage payment (including estimates for taxes, maintenance and insurance) would take up no more than |
About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people.
As the most visited real estate app and website in
Zillow's ecosystem spans the entire home journey — from dreaming and shopping to renting, buying, selling and financing.
Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans®, Zillow Rentals®, Zillow® New Construction, Trulia®, StreetEasy®, Out East®, HotPads®, Follow Up Boss®, ShowingTime®, dotloop® and Zillow® Closing.
All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2026 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.
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SOURCE Zillow