ZTO Announces Certain Preliminary Estimated Full Year 2025 Financial Results

Rhea-AI Summary

ZTO (NYSE: ZTO) provided preliminary estimated full-year 2025 financial results on Feb 4, 2026. Revenue is estimated at RMB48,500.0–50,000.0 million, up ~9.5%–12.9% from 2024. Gross profit is estimated at RMB12,150.0–12,550.0 million, down ~8.5%–11.4% from 2024.

The company cited a rise in parcel volumes to 38.52 billion in 2025 (13.3% YoY) as a driver of revenue growth. These figures are preliminary, unaudited, and subject to revision pending year-end close and the formal Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release.

Positive

• Revenue estimate of RMB48.5–50.0 billion for 2025 (+9.5%–12.9% YoY)
• Parcel volume increase to 38.52 billion in 2025 (+13.3% YoY)

Negative

• Gross profit estimated down to RMB12.15–12.55 billion (−8.5% to −11.4% YoY)
• Preliminary estimates are unaudited and subject to revision, pending year-end close and formal earnings release

Key Figures

2025 revenue guidance: RMB48,500.0M–RMB50,000.0M 2024 revenue: RMB44,280.7M 2025 gross profit guidance: RMB12,150.0M–RMB12,550.0M +5 more

8 metrics

2025 revenue guidance RMB48,500.0M–RMB50,000.0M Estimated full year 2025 total revenues range

2024 revenue RMB44,280.7M Full year 2024 total revenues baseline

2025 gross profit guidance RMB12,150.0M–RMB12,550.0M Estimated full year 2025 gross profit range

2024 gross profit RMB13,717.1M Full year 2024 gross profit baseline

2024 parcel volume 34.01 billion parcels Reported full year 2024 parcel volumes

2025 parcel volume estimate 38.52 billion parcels Estimated full year 2025 parcel volumes

Parcel volume growth 13.3% YoY Year-over-year increase from 2024 to 2025 parcel volumes

Revenue growth range 9.5%–12.9% YoY Estimated 2025 revenue growth vs. 2024

Market Reality Check

Price: $22.51 Vol: Volume 1,750,179 is below...

normal vol

$22.51 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,750,179 is below the 20-day average of 2,044,700 (relative volume 0.86). normal

Technical Price 22.51 is trading above the 200-day MA at 19.39 and near the 52-week high of 22.695.

Peers on Argus

ZTO was up 1.72% while key logistics peers were mixed: EXPD -1.02%, CHRW +0.36%,...

ZTO was up 1.72% while key logistics peers were mixed: EXPD -1.02%, CHRW +0.36%, JBHT +4.04%, FDX +2.94%, UPS +1.06%, pointing to a largely stock-specific move around the guidance.

Previous Earnings Reports

3 past events · Latest: Nov 19 (Neutral)

Same Type Pattern 3 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Nov 19	Q3 2025 earnings	Neutral	-0.1%	Q3 2025 results with revenue growth but gross margin and EBITDA pressure.
Apr 17	2024 20-F filing	Neutral	+0.3%	Filing of audited annual report on Form 20-F for fiscal 2024.
Apr 19	2023 20-F filing	Neutral	-0.3%	Filing of annual Form 20-F report for fiscal year 2023.

Pattern Detected

Earnings-related filings and results have historically led to very small next-day moves, suggesting muted price sensitivity to routine financial disclosures.

Recent Company History

Over the last few earnings-related announcements, ZTO’s stock reactions have been modest. The Q3 2025 results combined revenue growth with margin pressure and only saw a -0.11% move. Annual Form 20-F filings for 2023 and 2024 around April generated small moves between about -0.3% and +0.27%. Today’s preliminary full-year 2025 estimates extend this financial reporting cadence, updating investors on revenue growth and gross profit compression.

Historical Comparison

earnings

-0.1 %

Average Historical Move

Historical Analysis

In the past earnings-related events, ZTO’s average next-day move was about -0.05%, indicating historically muted reactions to financial disclosures compared with this preliminary 2025 guidance update.

Typical Pattern

Earnings communications progressed from annual 20-F filings for 2023 and 2024 to detailed Q3 2025 results, now followed by preliminary full-year 2025 revenue and gross profit estimates.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement provides preliminary full-year 2025 guidance, pairing expected revenue growth of 9...

Analysis

This announcement provides preliminary full-year 2025 guidance, pairing expected revenue growth of 9.5%–12.9% with a projected decline in gross profit to RMB12,150.0M–12,550.0M. Parcel volumes are estimated to reach 38.52 billion, up 13.3% year over year, underscoring scale expansion alongside margin pressure. Investors may watch the finalized audited figures in the Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release for confirmation or revision of these trends.

Key Terms

consolidated financial statements, independent registered public accounting firm, audit procedures, review procedures

4 terms

consolidated financial statements financial

"subject to revision based upon the completion of the Company's year-end financial closing process and its consolidated financial statements"

Consolidated financial statements combine the financial results of a parent company and all the companies it controls into one set of reports, like showing the whole family’s budget instead of each person’s separate accounts. For investors this matters because it gives a complete picture of assets, debts, revenue and cash flow across the entire group, helping assess true size, risk and profitability without missing or double-counting related activity.

independent registered public accounting firm financial

"any procedures by the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, who has not expressed any opinion"

An independent registered public accounting firm is an outside accounting company officially registered with the government regulator to examine and report on a public company's financial records and controls. Investors treat its reports like an impartial inspector’s certificate — they add credibility to financial statements, help spot errors or misleading claims, and reduce the risk that shareholders are relying on unchecked or biased numbers.

audit procedures financial

"Such preliminary estimates have not been subject to any audit procedures, review procedures, or any procedures"

Audit procedures are the specific tests and checks auditors perform on a company’s books, transactions, and internal controls to verify that financial statements are accurate and free of material mistakes or fraud. For investors they matter because robust procedures increase confidence that reported earnings and assets reflect reality; think of it like a thorough pre-purchase inspection that lowers the chance of hidden problems affecting the value of your investment.

review procedures financial

"have not been subject to any audit procedures, review procedures, or any procedures by the Company's independent"

A set of formal steps an organization or regulator uses to examine documents, data or products to make sure they are accurate, complete and meet legal or technical standards. Think of it like a quality-check checklist and inspection process that catches errors, missing information or compliance problems before something is published, sold or submitted; for investors, strong review procedures reduce the risk of surprises, regulatory penalties and misleading disclosures that can affect a company's value.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

SHANGHAI, Feb. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China ("ZTO" or the "Company"), today announced certain preliminary estimated financial results for the full year of 2025. Based on currently available information, the Company estimates that:

• its total revenues to range from RMB48,500.0 million to RMB50,000.0 million in 2025, an increase of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% from RMB44,280.7 million in 2024; and
• its gross profit to range from RMB12,150.0 million to RMB12,550.0 million in 2025, a decrease of approximately 8.5% to 11.4% from RMB13,717.1 million in 2024.

The estimated growth in total revenues is primarily driven by the increase in parcel volumes from 34.01 billion in 2024 to 38.52 billion in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.3%.

The estimates presented above are preliminary and subject to revision based upon the completion of the Company's year-end financial closing process and its consolidated financial statements and are not meant to be comprehensive for the relevant periods. These preliminary estimates have been prepared by the Company's management based upon the most current information available to them. Such preliminary estimates have not been subject to any audit procedures, review procedures, or any procedures by the Company's independent registered public accounting firm, who has not expressed any opinion or any other form of assurance on such information and assumes no responsibility for, and disclaims any association with, the preliminary estimates. The actual results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 will not be available until a later time. These estimates involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on the Company's ongoing review.

The information presented herein should not be considered a substitute for the financial information to be filed with the SEC in the Company's earnings release for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results (the "Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Release") once it becomes available. The Company has no intention or obligation to update the preliminary estimated financial results in this press release prior to issuing the Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Release.

About ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057) ("ZTO" or the "Company") is a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China. ZTO provides express delivery service as well as other value-added logistics services through its extensive and reliable nationwide network coverage in China.

ZTO operates a highly scalable network partner model, which the Company believes is best suited to support the significant growth of e-commerce in China. The Company leverages its network partners to provide pickup and last-mile delivery services, while controlling the mission-critical line-haul transportation and sorting network within the express delivery service value chain.

For more information, please visit http://zto.investorroom.com.

Safe Harbor Statement

This press release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking" statements pursuant to the "safe harbor" provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. ZTO may also make forward-looking statements in the Company's periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), in its interim and annual reports to shareholders, in announcements, circulars or other publications made on the website of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Hong Kong Stock Exchange"), in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company's beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology, such as "will," "expects," "anticipates," "future," "intends," "plans," "believes," "confidence," "estimates," "likely to" and similar statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Among other things, the terms of the Notes, and whether the Company will complete the Notes Offering, are forward-looking statements. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the development of the e-commerce industry in China, its significant reliance on the Alibaba ecosystem, risks associated with its network partners and their employees and personnel, intense competition which could adversely affect the Company's results of operations and market share, any service disruption of the Company's sorting hubs or the outlets operated by its network partners or its technology system. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in ZTO's annual report on Form 20-Fs and other filings with the SEC and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided in this press release is current as of the date hereof, and ZTO assumes no obligation to update such information, except as required under applicable law.

For investor and media inquiries, please contact:

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Investor Relations
E-mail: ir@zto.com
Phone: +86 21 5980 4508

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zto-announces-certain-preliminary-estimated-full-year-2025-financial-results-302678694.html

SOURCE ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

FAQ

What full-year 2025 revenue did ZTO (ZTO) estimate on Feb 4, 2026?

The company estimated RMB48,500.0–50,000.0 million in revenue for 2025. According to the company, this represents an approximate 9.5%–12.9% increase from RMB44,280.7 million in 2024, driven mainly by higher parcel volumes.

How did ZTO (ZTO) report 2025 gross profit estimates and what does it mean for 2024 comparison?

ZTO estimated RMB12,150.0–12,550.0 million gross profit for 2025, a decline of about 8.5%–11.4% from 2024. According to the company, these are preliminary figures and reflect year-over-year gross profit contraction.

What parcel volume change did ZTO (ZTO) estimate for 2025 and how did it affect revenue?

ZTO estimated parcel volumes of 38.52 billion in 2025, up 13.3% YoY. According to the company, the higher parcel volume was the primary driver of the estimated revenue increase for the year.

Are ZTO's full-year 2025 financial estimates final and audited?

No, the estimates are preliminary and unaudited and may change. According to the company, the figures are subject to revision pending the year-end financial close and the formal Q4 and Full Year 2025 earnings release.

When will ZTO (ZTO) release finalized Q4 and full-year 2025 results?

ZTO stated finalized results will be released later with the Q4 and Full Year 2025 earnings release. According to the company, the exact timing awaits completion of the year-end closing and audit procedures.