BBVA-Banco Sabadell deal: €12B combined income, CET1 impacts shown
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
BBVA has launched a voluntary share offer for Banco Sabadell with a take-up period beginning on
BBVA discloses phased-in post-tax synergies and average net income for
Positive
- Offer claims highest Banco Sabadell valuation in over a decade
- Projected EPS accretion of 251% for Banco Sabadell shareholders under
100% take-up - Phased-in post-tax synergies with average net income of
€1.6 billion for Banco Sabadell and€12 billion for BBVA (average2025-2028 ) - BBVA announced a
€1 billion share buyback (April 2025) which is assumed in combined metrics
Negative
- Key metrics assume a
100% take-up, a material execution dependency - CET1 capital could fall by
-49bps at50% take-up (reduced to-12bps after TSB sale and dividend) - Combined outcomes depend on completion of the TSB sale and reinvestment of proceeds, which are assumptions rather than completed events
Insights
Highly accretive share offer with strong stated synergies but reliant on full take-up and subsequent capital moves.
The proposal frames the combination as value-accretive: a
Risks stem from the reliance on a
Notable near-term CET1 impact examples given; capital actions are integral to stated outcomes.
The filing quantifies capital effects: a
These figures show management expects to offset much of the CET1 consumption through asset sales and shareholder returns. Investors should track the timing and completion of the TSB sale, the extraordinary dividend decision, and the announced buyback to assess realized capital positions and rating-sensitive metrics into