First Watch targets 10%-13% revenue growth through 2028
First Watch says it is on track to open approximately 55 systemwide restaurants in 2027, alongside its target for positive free cash flow beginning that year.
Sentiment and the balance of points
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Form Type
8-K
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. presented annual growth targets through 2028: same-restaurant sales growth of 2% to 4%, total revenue growth of 10% to 13%, G&A expense growth below total revenue growth, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%+. The same-restaurant sales target includes positive underlying same-restaurant traffic, net of planned sales transfer from new restaurant growth.
The company targets positive Free Cash Flow beginning in 2027 and increasing each year, and said it is on track to open approximately 55 systemwide restaurants in 2027. Its presentation also describes a 2,200+ unit opportunity in the continental U.S.
8-K Event Classification
2 items: 7.01, 9.01
2 items
Item 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure
Disclosure
Material non-public information disclosed under Regulation Fair Disclosure, often investor presentations or guidance.
Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits
Exhibits
Financial statements, pro forma financial information, or exhibit attachments filed with this report.
Key Figures
Same-restaurant sales growth target: 2% to 4%
Total revenue growth target: 10% to 13%
Adjusted EBITDA growth target: 15%+
+5 more
8 metrics
Same-restaurant sales growth target
2% to 4%
Annual growth targets through 2028
Total revenue growth target
10% to 13%
Annual growth targets through 2028
Adjusted EBITDA growth target
15%+
Annual growth targets through 2028
Free Cash Flow target
Positive beginning in 2027; increasing each year
Annual growth targets through 2028
Systemwide restaurants
Approximately 55 restaurants
On track to open in 2027
Total addressable market opportunity
2,200+ units
Continental U.S.
Class of 2026 net build cost
$1
Class of 2026
Class of 2026 third-year sales target
$2
Class of 2026
Key Terms
Same Restaurant Sales, Adjusted EBITDA, Free Cash Flow, capital expenditures
4 terms
Same Restaurant Sales financial
"Same Restaurant Sales growth of 2% to 4%"
Same-restaurant sales measure how revenue at a company’s existing dining locations changed over a given period, excluding any new openings or permanently closed outlets. Investors use it to see whether underlying customer demand and day-to-day operations are improving or worsening — like checking whether the same group of stores is selling more or less this year, so you’re comparing apples to apples rather than counting growth from new locations.
Adjusted EBITDA financial
"Adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%+"
Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.
Free Cash Flow financial
"Positive Free Cash Flow beginning in 2027"
Free cash flow is the amount of money a company has left over after paying all its expenses and investing in its business, like buying equipment or updating facilities. It shows how much cash is available to reward shareholders, pay down debt, or save for future growth. This helps investors understand if a company is financially healthy and able to grow.
capital expenditures financial
"Cash Flow from Operations minus capital expenditures"
Capital expenditures are the money a company spends to buy or improve big assets like buildings, equipment, or machines that will last a long time. These investments matter because they help the company grow and operate more efficiently, similar to how upgrading a home’s appliances or adding a new room can make it better and more valuable.
FAQ
AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
What growth targets did FWRG present through 2028?
Through 2028, FWRG targets same-restaurant sales growth of 2% to 4%, total revenue growth of 10% to 13%, G&A expense growth below total revenue growth, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%+.
How many restaurants is FWRG on track to open in 2027?
First Watch said it is on track to open approximately 55 systemwide restaurants in 2027.
What does FWRG include in its same-restaurant sales growth target?
The 2% to 4% target includes positive underlying same-restaurant traffic, net of planned sales transfer from new restaurant growth.
How does FWRG define free cash flow?
First Watch defines Free Cash Flow as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures. Its target is positive Free Cash Flow beginning in 2027 and increasing each year.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
___________________________________
FORM 8-K
___________________________________
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (date of earliest event reported)
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(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
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(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) | (Commission File Number) | (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number) | ||||||
(Address of principal executive offices and zip code) | ||||||||
( | ||||||||
(Registrant's telephone number, including area code) | ||||||||
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) | |||||
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) | |||||
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) | |||||
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) | |||||
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: | ||||||||
Title of each class | Trading Symbol | Name of each exchange on which registered | ||||||
(Nasdaq Global Select Market) | ||||||||
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Emerging growth company ☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
The Company has posted an investor presentation to its website at investors.firstwatch.com, which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing.
Item 9.01 - Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No. | Description | |||||||
99.1 | Investor presentation dated November 3, 2026 | |||||||
104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) | |||||||
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Registrant) | ||||||||
Date: November 3, 2026 | By: | /s/ Ashlee Weisser | ||||||
Name: | Ashlee Weisser | |||||||
Title: | Chief Financial Officer | |||||||
ANNUAL GROWTH TARGETS THROUGH 2028 November 3, 2026 Exhibit 99.1
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains a number of “forward-looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from the statements made herein. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements discuss our current expectations and projections relating to our financial position, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to any historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “future,” “intend,” “outlook,” “potential,” “project,” “projection,” “plan,” “seek,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “will,” “should,” “can,” “can have,” “likely,” the negatives thereof and other similar expressions. You should evaluate all forward-looking statements made in this presentation in the context of the risks and uncertainties disclosed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Investors Relations section of the Company’s website at https://investors.firstwatch.com/financial-information/sec-filings. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include the following: our vulnerability to changes in consumer preferences and economic conditions such as inflation and recession; our inability to successfully open new restaurants or establish new markets; our inability to effectively manage our growth; potential negative impacts on sales at our and our franchisees’ restaurants as a result of our opening new restaurants in existing markets; a decline in visitors to any of the retail centers, lifestyle centers, or entertainment centers where our restaurants are located; lower than expected same-restaurant sales growth; unsuccessful marketing programs and limited time new offerings; changes in the cost of food; unprofitability or closure of new restaurants or lower than previously experienced performance in existing restaurants; our inability to compete effectively for customers; our vulnerability to food safety and food-borne illness concerns; unsuccessful financial performance of our franchisees, our limited control over our franchisees’ operations, our inability to maintain good relationships with our franchisees and conflicts of interest with our franchisees; the geographic concentration of our system-wide restaurant base in the southeast portion of the United States; damage to our reputation and negative publicity; our inability or failure to recognize, respond to and effectively manage the accelerated impact of social media and artificial intelligence; our limited number of suppliers and distributors for several of our frequently used ingredients and shortages or disruptions in the supply or delivery of such ingredients; information technology system failures or breaches of our network security; our failure to comply with federal and state laws and regulations relating to privacy, data protection, advertising and consumer protection, or the expansion of current or the enactment of new laws or regulations relating to privacy, data protection, advertising and consumer protection; our potential liability with our gift cards under the property laws of some states; our failure to enforce and maintain our trademarks and protect our other intellectual property; litigation with respect to intellectual property assets; our dependence on our executive officers and certain other key employees; our inability to identify, hire, train and retain qualified individuals for our workforce; our failure to obtain or to properly verify the employment eligibility of our employees; our failure to maintain our corporate culture as we grow; unionization activities among our employees; employment and labor law proceedings; labor shortages or increased labor costs or health care costs; risks associated with leasing property subject to long-term and non-cancelable leases; risks related to our sale of alcoholic beverages; costly and complex compliance with federal, state and local laws, including trade and tax policies; changes in accounting principles applicable to us; our vulnerability to natural disasters, unusual weather conditions, pandemic outbreaks, political events, war and terrorism; our inability to secure additional capital to support business growth; our level of indebtedness; failure to comply with covenants under our credit facility; and uncertainty regarding the Russia and Ukraine war, war and unrest in the Middle East and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, as a result of such conflicts or other related events. The forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date hereof and are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law. NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES (UNAUDITED) To supplement the consolidated financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”), we use the following non-GAAP measures in this presentation, which present operating results on an adjusted basis: (i) Adjusted EBITDA, and (ii) Free Cash Flow. Our presentation of these non-GAAP measures includes isolating the effects of some items that are either nonrecurring in nature or have no meaningful correlation to our ongoing core operating performance. These supplemental measures of performance are not required by or presented in accordance with GAAP. Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with additional visibility into our operations, facilitate analysis and comparisons of our ongoing business operations because they exclude items that may not be indicative of our ongoing operating performance, help to identify operational trends and allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by Management in our financial and operational decision making. Our non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies and have important limitations as analytical tools. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP as they may not provide a complete understanding of our performance. These non-GAAP measures should be reviewed in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. 2 CAUTIONARY NOTE ON FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
3 ANNUAL GROWTH TARGETS THROUGH 2028 • Same Restaurant Sales growth of 2% to 4%(1) • Total Revenue growth of 10% to 13% • G&A Expense growth lower than Total Revenue growth • Adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%+ • Positive Free Cash Flow(2) beginning in 2027 and increasing each year (1) Includes positive underlying same-restaurant traffic, net of planned sales transfer from new restaurant growth. (2) Free Cash Flow is defined by Cash Flow from Operations minus capital expenditures.
4 BALANCING EXPANSION WITH ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY GROWTH PLAN DRIVES ADJUSTED EBITDA GROWTH AND FREE CASH FLOW • Optimizing capital allocation framework by committing to unit growth • Enables improved self-funding of new restaurant openings and maintenance capital expenditures from operating cash flow • On track to open approximately 55 systemwide restaurants in 2027 • Increasing interest rate risk and near-term benefits of generating higher levels of cash outweigh committing to specific unit count growth rates in out years • New unit economics remain highly compelling and growth extends our leadership in the Daytime Dining segment • Class of 2026: $1.8M net build cost and a $2.8M 3rd-year sales target — with average weekly sales currently running above their underwriting targets and our comp base • Total addressable market thesis intact — 2,200+ unit opportunity in the continental U.S. provides a long, visible growth runway • Adjusted EBITDA growth rate, 15%+ • G&A expense discipline and margin enhancing initiatives drive adjusted EBITDA growth at a faster rate than sales growth • Positive Free Cash Flow beginning in 2027… • …and increasing each year from that base
For more information, visit investors.firstwatch.com or email investors@firstwatch.com