Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) posts 2025 growth, Turkey gains and 2026 EBITDA view
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Kaspi.kz reported strong 4Q and full-year 2025 growth while outlining a clear dividend and expansion strategy. Full-year revenue rose 19% to KZT3.1 trillion and net income increased 10% to KZT1.2 trillion, with underlying revenue and net income up 21% and 18%.
The board recommended a quarterly dividend of KZT850 per ADS, which management believes is sustainable for the remainder of 2026, subject to shareholder approval. Growth was broad-based: the Payments platform grew revenue 12% and net income 13%, Marketplace underlying revenue and net income rose 30% and 14%, and Fintech revenue and net income increased 20% and 9%.
Hepsiburada in Türkiye showed improving momentum, with 4Q 2025 purchases up 19% year-over-year, GMV up 13% in real terms, and engaged consumers up 29%. Management plans to run Hepsiburada around Adjusted EBITDA breakeven near term and invest about $300 million on acquiring Rabobank A.Ş.
For 2026, Kaspi.kz introduced consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance, expecting around 5% year-over-year growth, including Türkiye. The company flagged higher Kazakh bank taxes, increased reserve requirements and a high-interest-rate environment as headwinds that will cause 2026 bottom-line growth in Kazakhstan to lag revenue, while moderating inflation may later support profitability.
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Insights
Solid 2025 growth, new dividend, but 2026 profit guidance is cautious.
Kaspi.kz delivered robust 2025 results with revenue up 19% and net income up 10%, while underlying metrics grew faster. All three core platforms — Payments, Marketplace and Fintech — contributed, and the group reached KZT3.1 trillion revenue and KZT1.2 trillion net income excluding Türkiye.
The company is reintroducing cash returns via a recommended quarterly dividend of KZT850 per ADS, which management believes is sustainable for the rest of 2026, subject to shareholder approval. At the same time, it is funding expansion, including roughly $300 million earmarked for acquiring Rabobank A.Ş. and continued investment in Hepsiburada, which is being managed around Adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
Management guided to around 5% year-over-year growth in consolidated Adjusted EBITDA in 2026, reflecting headwinds from higher Kazakh bank taxes, increased reserve requirements and high interest rates. These factors are expected to make bottom-line growth in Kazakhstan lag revenue, even as e-commerce in Kazakhstan and Türkiye remains the main growth driver. Actual outcomes will depend on execution in Türkiye and the macro and rate environment disclosed.
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