Natera raises 2026 revenue outlook by $140M
The updated outlook pairs positive cash flow with higher projected spending ranges for research and development and selling, general and administrative costs.
Sentiment and the balance of points
Rhea-AI Sentiment reads the wording of the document, how positive or negative its language is on a 1 to 5 scale. The balance of points shown with the takes weighs what the document actually discloses, so the two can disagree, for example when a trial that missed its main goal is described in upbeat language.
Form Type
8-K
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Natera, Inc. reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $794.0 million, up 34.1% from $592.2 million a year earlier, with the increase attributed to higher volume and average selling prices. It processed approximately 1,093,100 tests, including approximately 339,500 oncology tests, compared with approximately 893,600 total tests a year earlier. Gross margin was 64.7%, versus 64.9%.
Net loss was $59.9 million ($0.42 per diluted share), compared with $87.5 million ($0.64) a year earlier. Operating expenses were $576.1 million, up 19.5%, and loss from operations was $68.3 million versus $97.6 million. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled approximately $1,097.2 million as of September 30, 2026; outstanding debt was $80.3 million.
Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance by $140 million at the midpoint, to $3.005 billion–$3.035 billion. It also anticipates gross margin of approximately 64%–66%, positive cash flow, SG&A of approximately $1.225 billion–$1.300 billion and R&D of $825 million–$925 million.
3 points · 1 major0 major · 0 points
How this balance works
Rhea-AI gives every point it takes from this document a weight. Minor counts 1, Moderate 3 and Major 9, so one Major point outweighs several Minor ones. The bar adds up the weights on each side, and when neither side holds more than 65% of the total the balance reads Mixed.
It reads the document as published, with the same rules for every company, and it does not look at what the market expected or at how the stock traded, so a point can be objectively good on a day the stock falls.
Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.
Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works
Positive
- Major point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Natera raised 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by $140 million.
- Moderate pointQuarterly revenue reached $794.0 million, up 34.1% year over year.
- Moderate pointQuarterly net loss was $59.9 million, versus $87.5 million a year earlier.
Negative
- None.
Filing Explained
Natera has reported third-quarter 2026 results and disclosed 144,345,000 common shares outstanding at
8-K Event Classification
2 items: 2.02, 9.01
2 items
Item 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition
Financial
Disclosure of earnings results, typically an earnings press release or preliminary financials.
Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits
Exhibits
Financial statements, pro forma financial information, or exhibit attachments filed with this report.
Key Figures
Total revenue: $794.0 million
Gross margin: 64.7%
Tests processed: Approximately 1,093,100 tests
+5 more
8 metrics
Total revenue
$794.0 million
Third quarter 2026; $592.2 million in third quarter 2025
Gross margin
64.7%
Third quarter 2026; 64.9% in third quarter 2025
Tests processed
Approximately 1,093,100 tests
Third quarter 2026
Net loss
$59.9 million
Third quarter 2026; $87.5 million in third quarter 2025
Total operating expenses
$576.1 million
Third quarter 2026; $482.0 million in third quarter 2025
2026 total revenue guidance
$3.005 billion to $3.035 billion
2026 outlook
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash
Approximately $1,097.2 million
As of September 30, 2026
Outstanding debt
$80.3 million
As of September 30, 2026
Key Terms
variable consideration, non-GAAP gross margin, clinical molecular residual disease, companion diagnostic
4 terms
variable consideration financial
"estimates of variable consideration at the time of revenue recognition"
non-GAAP gross margin financial
"Natera's non-GAAP gross margin increased by approximately 1.4% sequentially"
Non-GAAP gross margin is a measure of a company's profitability that shows how much money it makes from sales after subtracting the direct costs of producing its products or services, but without applying certain accounting adjustments required by standard rules. It helps investors understand the company's core earning ability by excluding items like one-time expenses or accounting changes. This metric provides a clearer picture of ongoing business performance beyond official financial reports.
clinical molecular residual disease medical
"Clinical molecular residual disease (MRD) oncology units grew"
companion diagnostic medical
"as a companion diagnostic (CDx) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer"
A companion diagnostic is a medical test designed to identify which patients are likely to benefit from a specific drug or medical treatment, much like a key that shows whether a particular lock will open. For investors, these tests matter because they can increase a drug’s chances of approval and market uptake, create a separate revenue stream, and reduce commercial risk by matching treatments to the patients most likely to respond.
Earnings Snapshot
Total revenue: $794.0 million · Guidance included
Third quarter ended September 30, 2026
Total revenue
$794.0 million
+34.1% year over year
Gross margin
64.7%
64.9% in third quarter 2025
Net loss
$59.9 million
$87.5 million in third quarter 2025
Net loss per diluted share
($0.42)
($0.64) in third quarter 2025
Guidance
For 2026, Natera anticipates total revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion; gross margin of approximately 64% to 66%; SG&A of approximately $1.225 billion to $1.300 billion; R&D of $825 million to $925 million; and positive cash flow.
FAQ
AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
How much revenue did NTRA report in Q3 2026?
Natera reported $794.0 million in Q3 2026 revenue, up 34.1% from $592.2 million in Q3 2025. It attributed the increase to higher volume and average selling price improvements, and processed approximately 1,093,100 tests.
What is NTRA's 2026 revenue guidance?
Natera anticipates total revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion for 2026, a $140 million increase at the midpoint from its prior range of $2.850 billion to $2.910 billion. It projects positive cash flow.
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): November 5, 2026
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
| (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) | (Commission File Number) | (IRS Employer Identification No.) | ||||||
(Address of principal executive offices, including zip code)
(650 ) 980 9190
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
N/A
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
| Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) | |||||
| Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) | |||||
| Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) | |||||
| Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) | |||||
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
| Title of each class | Trading Symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered | ||||||||||||
Nasdaq Stock Market LLC ( | ||||||||||||||
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company ¨
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ¨
| Item 2.02. | Results of Operations and Financial Condition. | ||||
On November 5, 2026, Natera, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026 and provided a related investor presentation. A copy of the press release and a copy of the investor presentation are furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and are incorporated herein by reference.
The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by reference in such filing.
| Item 9.01. | Financial Statements and Exhibits. | ||||
(d) Exhibits.
| Exhibit No. | Description | |||||||
99.1 | Press Release dated November 5, 2026. | |||||||
99.2 | Investor Presentation. | |||||||
| 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL). | |||||||
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
| Natera, Inc. | ||||||||
| By: | /s/ Michael Brophy | |||||||
| Michael Brophy | ||||||||
| Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial and Accounting Officer) | ||||||||
Dated: November 5, 2026
Exhibit 99.1
Natera Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
AUSTIN, Texas, November 5, 2026 /BUSINESS WIRE/ — Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRA), a global leader in cell-free DNA and precision medicine, today reported its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026.
Recent Financial Highlights
•Generated total revenues of $794.0 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared to $592.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 34.1%.
•Generated a gross margin1 of 64.7% in the third quarter of 2026, compared to a gross margin1 of 64.9% in the third quarter of 2025. Excluding revenue true-ups, third quarter non-GAAP gross margin2 increased by 137 basis points over the second quarter of 2026.
•Processed approximately 1,093,100 tests in the third quarter of 2026, compared to approximately 893,600 tests in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 22.3%.
•Processed approximately 339,500 oncology tests in the third quarter of 2026, compared to approximately 211,000 in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 60.9%. Clinical molecular residual disease (MRD) oncology units grew 32,700 units over the second quarter of 2026.
•Increased cash by approximately $5.7 million3 as of September 30, 2026 compared to June 30, 2026.
•Raised 2026 annual revenue guidance by $140 million at the midpoint, from $2.850 billion - $2.910 billion to $3.005 billion - $3.035 billion.
Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2026 Financial Results
Total revenues were $794.0 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $592.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 34.1%. The increase in revenues was driven by an increase in volume and average selling price improvements.
Natera processed approximately 1,093,100 tests in the third quarter of 2026, including approximately 1,080,300 tests accessioned in its laboratory, compared to approximately 893,600 tests processed, including approximately 879,700 tests accessioned in its laboratory, in the third quarter of 2025.
In the third quarter of 2026, Natera recognized revenue on approximately 1,024,800 tests for which results were reported to customers in the period (tests reported), including approximately 1,012,100 tests reported from its laboratory, compared to approximately 832,900 tests reported, including approximately 819,900 tests reported from its laboratory, in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 23.0% from the prior period.
Gross profit1 for the three months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025 was $513.5 million and $384.4 million, respectively, representing a gross margin1 of 64.7% and 64.9%, respectively. This was primarily as a result of higher revenues and continued progress in reducing cost of revenues, offset by a smaller benefit from changes in estimates. Changes in estimates for the three months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025 increased revenue and, as a result, increased gross margin1 by 1.5% and 3.6%, respectively, and increased gross profit1 by $32.3 million and $55.1 million, respectively. The decrease in the change in estimate reflects the continued accumulation of historical collection experience, which has resulted in our estimates of variable consideration at the time of revenue recognition more closely approximating subsequent cash collections.
Gross margin1 for the three months ended June 30, 2026 was 64.5%. Excluding the change in estimates in revenue accruals of approximately $32.3 million and $52.3 million during the three months ended September 30, 2026 and June 30, 2026, respectively, Natera's non-GAAP gross margin2 increased by approximately 1.4% sequentially.
Total operating expenses, representing research and development expenses and selling, general and administrative expenses, for the third quarter of 2026 was $576.1 million, compared to $482.0 million in the same period of the prior year, an increase of 19.5%. The increase was primarily driven by headcount growth to support new product offerings as well as increases in clinical trial expenses. Amortization of acquired intangible assets for the third quarter of 2026 was $5.7 million. No such amortization occurred in the third quarter of 2025.
Loss from operations for the third quarter of 2026 was $68.3 million compared to $97.6 million for the same period of the prior year.
Natera’s net loss for the third quarter of 2026 was $59.9 million, or ($0.42) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $87.5 million, or ($0.64) per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Weighted average shares outstanding were 144.1 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to 137.2 million for the same period in the prior year.
At September 30, 2026, Natera held approximately $1,097.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, compared to $1,076.1 million as of December 31, 2025. As of September 30, 2026, Natera had a total outstanding debt balance of $80.3 million, including accrued interest under its line of credit with UBS at a variable interest rate of 30-day SOFR plus 50 bps.
Financial Outlook
Natera anticipates 2026 total revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion; gross margin1 to be approximately 64% to 66%; selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $1.225 billion to $1.300 billion; research and development costs to be $825 million to $925 million; and cash flow to be positive.
Test Volume Summary
| Unit | QTD 2026 | QTD 2025 | Definition | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tests processed | 1,093,100 | 893,600 | Tests accessioned in our laboratory plus units processed outside of our laboratory | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tests accessioned | 1,080,300 | 879,700 | Tests accessioned in our laboratory | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tests reported | 1,024,800 | 832,900 | Total tests reported | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tests reported in our laboratory | 1,012,100 | 819,900 | Total tests reported in our laboratory less units reported outside of our laboratory | ||||||||||||||||||||
About Natera
Natera™ is a global leader in cell-free DNA and precision medicine, dedicated to oncology, women’s health, and organ health. We aim to make personalized genetic testing and diagnostics part of the standard-of-care to protect health and inform earlier, more targeted interventions that help lead to longer, healthier lives. Natera’s tests are supported by more than 400 peer-reviewed publications that demonstrate excellent performance. Natera operates ISO 13485-certified and CAP-accredited laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) in Austin, Texas, San Carlos, California, and Boulder, Colorado. For more information, visit www.natera.com.
Conference Call Information
| Event: | Natera’s Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call | ||||
| Date: | Thursday, November 5, 2026 | ||||
| Time: | 1:30 p.m. PT (4:30 p.m. ET) | ||||
| Live Dial-In: | 1-833-461-5787 (Domestic) 1-585-542-9983 (International) | ||||
| Conference ID: | 221 556 643 | ||||
| Webcast Link: | https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/221556643 | ||||
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements under the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts, including statements regarding our market opportunity, anticipated products and launch schedules, reimbursement coverage, product costs, and gross margins, commercial and strategic partnerships and acquisitions, user experience, clinical trials and studies, and our strategies, goals and general business and market conditions, are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained in this press release are based upon Natera’s current plans, estimates, and expectations, as of the date of this release, and are not a representation that such plans, estimates, or expectations will be achieved.
These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including: we face numerous uncertainties and challenges in achieving our financial projections and goals; we may be unable to further increase the use and adoption of our products through our direct sales efforts or through
our laboratory partners; we have incurred net losses since our inception and we anticipate that we will continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future; our quarterly results may fluctuate from period to period; unless otherwise indicated, all financial data for the current and prior quarters are unaudited and subject to adjustment in connection with the completion of our quarterly and annual financial reporting processes; our estimates of market opportunity and forecasts of market growth may prove to be inaccurate; we may be unable to compete successfully with existing or future products or services offered by our competitors; we may engage in acquisitions, dispositions or other strategic transactions that may not achieve our anticipated benefits and could otherwise disrupt our business, cause dilution to our stockholders or reduce our financial resources; our products may not perform as expected; the results of our clinical studies may not support the use and reimbursement of our tests, particularly for microdeletions screening, and may not be able to be replicated in later studies required for regulatory approvals or clearances; if either of our primary CLIA-certified laboratories becomes inoperable, we will be unable to perform our tests and our business may be harmed; we rely on a limited number of suppliers or, in some cases, single suppliers, for some of our laboratory instruments and materials and may not be able to find replacements or immediately transition to alternative suppliers; if we are unable to successfully scale our operations, our business could suffer; the marketing, sale, and use of Panorama and our other products could result in substantial damages arising from product liability or professional liability claims that exceed our resources; we may be unable to expand, obtain or maintain third-party payer coverage and reimbursement for our tests, and we may be required to refund reimbursements already received; third-party payers may withdraw coverage or provide lower levels of reimbursement due to changing policies, billing complexities or other factors; we could incur substantial costs and delays complying with governmental regulations; litigation and other regulatory or governmental proceedings related to our intellectual property or the commercialization of our tests, are costly, time-consuming, could result in our obligation to pay material judgments or incur material settlement costs, and could limit our ability to commercialize our tests; and any inability to effectively protect our proprietary technology could harm our competitive position or our brand.
We discuss these and other risks and uncertainties in greater detail in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our periodic reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and in other filings that we make with the SEC from time to time. These documents are available on our website at www.natera.com under the Investor Relations section and on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
We operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. It is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this presentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations.
References:
1.Gross profit is calculated as GAAP total revenues less GAAP cost of revenues. Gross margin is calculated as gross profit divided by GAAP total revenues.
2.Excluding the change in estimates in revenue accruals of approximately $32.3 million and $52.3 million during the three months ended September 30, 2026 and June 30, 2026, respectively, Natera’s non-GAAP gross margin increased by approximately 1.4% sequentially.
3.Includes GAAP cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.
Contacts
Investor Relations
Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera, Inc., investor@natera.com
Media
Lesley Bogdanow, VP of Corporate Communications, Natera, Inc., pr@natera.com
Natera, Inc.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(Unaudited)
(in thousands, except shares)
| September 30, 2026 | December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||
| (1) | |||||||||||
| Assets | |||||||||||
| Current assets: | |||||||||||
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | $ | 1,097,195 | $ | 1,076,140 | |||||||
Accounts receivable, net of allowance of $6,231 in 2026 and $8,018 in 2025 | 471,354 | 296,528 | |||||||||
| Inventory | 91,704 | 68,443 | |||||||||
| Prepaid expenses and other current assets | 62,359 | 55,828 | |||||||||
| Total current assets | 1,722,612 | 1,496,939 | |||||||||
| Property and equipment, net | 353,954 | 241,184 | |||||||||
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 129,445 | 108,541 | |||||||||
| Goodwill | 141,100 | 141,070 | |||||||||
| Intangible assets | 353,044 | 373,713 | |||||||||
| Other assets | 48,260 | 36,897 | |||||||||
| Total assets | $ | 2,748,415 | $ | 2,398,344 | |||||||
| Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity | |||||||||||
| Current liabilities: | |||||||||||
| Accounts payable | $ | 120,176 | $ | 33,156 | |||||||
| Accrued compensation | 112,541 | 92,603 | |||||||||
| Contingent consideration payable, current portion | 45,873 | 21,580 | |||||||||
| Deferred revenue, current portion | 36,596 | 24,907 | |||||||||
| Short-term debt financing | 80,295 | 80,323 | |||||||||
| Other accrued liabilities | 217,416 | 188,659 | |||||||||
| Total current liabilities | 612,897 | 441,228 | |||||||||
| Contingent consideration payable, long-term portion | 83,187 | 96,780 | |||||||||
| Deferred tax liability, long-term portion | 701 | 701 | |||||||||
| Operating lease liabilities, long-term portion | 142,617 | 118,473 | |||||||||
| Deferred revenue, long-term portion | 15,781 | 17,062 | |||||||||
| Other liabilities | 23,674 | 11,687 | |||||||||
| Total liabilities | 878,857 | 685,931 | |||||||||
| Commitments and contingencies | |||||||||||
| Stockholders’ equity: | |||||||||||
Common stock (2) | 14 | 14 | |||||||||
| Additional paid in capital | 4,857,666 | 4,488,679 | |||||||||
| Accumulated deficit | (2,987,994) | (2,776,022) | |||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (128) | (258) | |||||||||
| Total stockholders’ equity | 1,869,558 | 1,712,413 | |||||||||
| Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity | $ | 2,748,415 | $ | 2,398,344 | |||||||
(1)The consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2025 has been derived from the audited consolidated financial statements at that date included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
(2)As of September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, there were approximately 144,345,000 and 139,693,000 shares of common stock, respectively, issued and outstanding.
Natera, Inc.
Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Loss
(Unaudited)
(in thousands, except per share data)
| Three months ended September 30, | Nine months ended September 30, | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Product revenues | $ | 789,981 | $ | 590,197 | $ | 2,231,778 | $ | 1,634,660 | |||||||||||||||
| Licensing and other revenues | 4,000 | 1,986 | 11,599 | 5,955 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 793,981 | 592,183 | 2,243,377 | 1,640,615 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cost and expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cost of product revenues | 279,636 | 207,253 | 791,435 | 591,397 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cost of licensing and other revenues | 871 | 548 | 2,443 | 1,465 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Research and development | 242,433 | 173,412 | 681,206 | 448,917 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Selling, general and administrative | 333,656 | 308,546 | 988,798 | 885,962 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Amortization of acquired intangible assets | 5,707 | — | 17,123 | — | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total cost and expenses | 862,303 | 689,759 | 2,481,005 | 1,927,741 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Loss from operations | (68,322) | (97,576) | (237,628) | (287,126) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | (903) | (1,045) | (2,685) | (3,078) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Interest and other income, net | 9,612 | 11,284 | 28,665 | 35,441 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Loss before income taxes | (59,613) | (87,337) | (211,648) | (254,763) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Income tax benefit (expense) | (299) | (207) | (324) | (655) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net loss | $ | (59,912) | $ | (87,544) | $ | (211,972) | $ | (255,418) | |||||||||||||||
| Unrealized gain (loss) on available-for-sale securities and foreign currency translation adjustment | (20) | 100 | 130 | 157 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Comprehensive loss | $ | (59,932) | $ | (87,444) | $ | (211,842) | $ | (255,261) | |||||||||||||||
| Net loss per share: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Basic and diluted | $ | (0.42) | $ | (0.64) | $ | (1.48) | $ | (1.88) | |||||||||||||||
| Weighted-average number of shares used in computing basic and diluted net loss per share: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Basic and diluted | 144,067 | 137,187 | 142,959 | 136,181 | |||||||||||||||||||
Natera, Inc. Q3’2026 Earnings Presentation November 5, 2026
2 Not for reproduction or further distribution. This presentation contains forward-looking statements under the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our market opportunity, our anticipated products and launch schedules, our reimbursement coverage, our product costs and our gross margins, our commercial and strategic partnerships and potential acquisitions, our user experience, our clinical trials and studies, our strategies, our goals and general business and market conditions, are forward- looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including: we face numerous uncertainties and challenges in achieving our financial projections and goals, including our long term projections of revenue; we may be unable to further increase the use and adoption of our products through our direct sales efforts or through our laboratory partners; we have incurred net losses since our inception and we anticipate that we will continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future; our quarterly results may fluctuate from period to period; unless otherwise indicated, all financial data for the current and prior quarters are unaudited and subject to adjustment in connection with the completion of our quarterly and annual financial reporting processes; our estimates of market opportunity and forecasts of market growth may prove to be inaccurate; we may be unable to compete successfully with existing or future products or services offered by our competitors; we may engage in acquisitions, dispositions or other strategic transactions that may not achieve our anticipated benefits and could otherwise disrupt our business, cause dilution to our stockholders or reduce our financial resources; our products may not perform as expected; the results of our clinical studies may not support the use and reimbursement of our tests, particularly for microdeletions screening, and may not be able to be replicated in later studies required for regulatory approvals or clearances; if either of our primary CLIA-certified laboratories becomes inoperable, we will be unable to perform our tests and our business will be harmed; we rely on a limited number of suppliers or, in some cases, single suppliers, for some of our laboratory instruments and materials and may not be able to find replacements or immediately transition to alternative suppliers; if we are unable to successfully scale our operations, our business could suffer; the marketing, sale, and use of Panorama and our other products could result in substantial damages arising from product liability or professional liability claims that exceed our resources; we may be unable to expand, obtain or maintain third-party payer coverage and reimbursement for our tests, and we may be required to refund reimbursements already received; third-party payers may withdraw coverage or provide lower levels of reimbursement due to changing policies, billing complexities or other factors; we could incur substantial costs and delays complying with governmental regulations; litigation and other regulatory or governmental proceedings, related to our intellectual property or the commercialization of our tests, are costly, time- consuming, could result in our obligation to pay material judgments or incur material settlement costs, and could limit our ability to commercialize our tests; and any inability to effectively protect our proprietary technology could harm our competitive position or our brand. We discuss these and other risks and uncertainties in greater detail in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our periodic reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q and in other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. Moreover, we operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. It is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation may not occur and our actual results could differ materially and adversely from those anticipated or implied. As a result, you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this presentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations. We file reports, proxy statements, and other information with the SEC. Such reports, proxy statements, and other information concerning us is available at http://www.sec.gov. Requests for copies of such documents should be directed to our Investor Relations department at Natera , Inc., 13011 McCallen Pass, Building A Suite 100, Austin, TX 78753. Our telephone number is (650) 980-9190. Safe-harbor statement
3 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Q3’26 financial highlights 1. Includes clinical volumes for both Signatera and Latitude. 2. Gross margin percentage is computed as follows: GAAP revenues minus GAAP cost of product revenues and licensing and other revenues divided by GAAP revenues. ● >1.09M total tests processed in Q3 2026 vs 894K in Q3 2025; year-over-year growth of >22%. ● ~316K clinical MRD oncology¹ tests in Q3 2026 vs 202K in Q3 2025; year-over-year growth of >56%. ○ Clinical MRD oncology¹ units grew ~33K units over Q2 2026, the second consecutive quarter of >30K sequential growth. ● Revenue of $794M in Q3 2026 vs $592M in Q3 2025; year-over-year growth of ~34%. ● Gross margin² of ~65% in Q3 2026, in line with Q3 2025; ex-true-ups, gross margin was 63.2%, up ~140 bps compared to Q2 2026 and ~190 bps compared to Q3 2025. ● Raising 2026 revenue outlook, $140M increase at the midpoint. ● Projecting annual revenues of $6 billion in 2029.
4 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Volumes continue to ramp Core Volume Drivers ● Continued performance across women’s health, organ health, and oncology 262K 3Q20 407K 3Q21 518K 3Q22 626K 3Q23 776K 3Q24 894K 3Q25 1,093K 3Q26
5 Not for reproduction or further distribution. 1. Includes clinical volumes for both Signatera and Latitude. Clinical MRD¹ volumes: record volume of ~316K units ● Second consecutive quarter of >30K sequential increase (~33K in Q3). ● Trailing four-quarter average add of ~28K units. ● Broad-based growth across tumor types; bladder strength following FDA approval and NCCN guideline inclusion. Clinical MRD tests processed 118K 130K 145K 161K 181K 202K 225K 249K 283K 316K 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26
6 Not for reproduction or further distribution. 1. Includes clinical volumes for both Signatera and Latitude. YoY unit growth for each quarter presented is the aggregate of sequential quarterly unit growth for the trailing four quarters. Year-on-year MRD growth accelerating ● Clear trend line of Signatera unit growth accelerating each quarter. ● YoY comparison adjusts for weather and seasonality, showing true underlying growth performance. ● Commercial expansion and data readouts continue to drive adoption. Clinical MRD¹ YoY unit growth +63K +73K +81K +88K +102K +113K 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26
7 Not for reproduction or further distribution. 1. Ex true-ups excludes the change in revenue estimate for tests delivered in prior periods that were fully collected: $32.3M in 3Q26 and $55.1M in 3Q25. Revenues continue to ramp: 42% organic revenue growth ● Continued volume and ASP execution. ● Ex true-ups¹, revenue grew ~42% YoY (~34% GAAP reported). Total revenues: YoY Q3 trend $98M $158M $211M $268M $440M $592M $794M 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22 3Q23 3Q24 3Q25 3Q26
8 Not for reproduction or further distribution. 1. Gross margin percentage is computed as follows: GAAP revenues minus GAAP cost of product revenues and licensing and other revenues divided by GAAP revenues. 2. Organic gross margin excludes the change in revenue estimate for tests delivered in prior periods that were fully collected from both revenues and gross profit ($52.3M in 2Q26; $32.3M in 3Q26); otherwise computed as in note 1. Continued gross margin execution Gross margins¹,² at ~65% ● Ex-true ups, ~140 bps sequential increase vs. Q2. ● Efficient COGS performance in recent product launches. ● Continued sequential step up in Signatera ASPs. Total gross margin¹ q/q trend 2Q26 3Q26 +20 bps sequential (axis truncated) Organic gross margin1,2 q/q trend 2Q26 3Q26 +140 bps sequential (axis truncated) 64.5% 64.7% 61.8% 63.2%
9 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Signatera outperformed guideline-recommended biomarker; demonstrated lead time vs imaging Supporting data · real-world study of 125 patients · JCO Precision Oncology Medicare coverage for Signatera in liver cancer Covers serial surveillance testing in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 83% vs 42% longitudinal sensitivity, Signatera vs. AFP 100% longitudinal specificity 7.9 vs 2.2 mo median lead time over imaging, Signatera vs. AFP (up to 16.5 months) >42K new U.S. liver cancer cases expected in 2026; HCC is ~90% of primary liver cancers High recurrence risk, even after curative-intent surgery. Current surveillance uses biomarker alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and imaging, despite known limitations.
10 Not for reproduction or further distribution. ● Signatera was approved by PMDA for colorectal cancer in June and as a companion diagnostic (CDx) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer in September. ● Commercial launch plans on track pending final reimbursement and pricing by year- end. Japan milestones pave way for Signatera launch >150K annual colorectal cancer diagnoses in Japan, similar to the U.S. >34K annual bladder cancer cases in Japan; ~20–25% are muscle-invasive
✓ MRD as an endpoint increasingly incorporated into clinical trials, e.g. treat-on-MRD ✓ ✓ Acceleration in pharma business Pharma revenue ($M) 1. Pharma revenue includes testing/trials services and data licensing, across Oncology and Organ Health. $34M 2023 $34M 2024 $36M 2025 $63M 2026 YTD (Q1-Q3) ALPHA3 · Allogene · LBCL, Ph II STELLAR-316 · Exelixis · Colorectal, Ph III AFT-70 NAVIGATE · AFT/Natera/Genentech · Breast, Ph III Announced 7 new partnerships since May Key Clinical Trials Pharma Revenue1 ($M) Embeds Signatera in future standards of care spanning histologies High demand for Signatera ultrasensitive MRD and Natera’s significant commercial reach AVTA-30-01· Aveta Biomics · Head & Neck, Ph III
12 Not for reproduction or further distribution. ● Global market expansion, incl Japan ● Volume and ASP growth in oncology Path to doubling total revenues in 2029 ● Pharma and data licensing $6 Billion ● Steady growth in women’s health, organ health, and rare disease Key Growth Drivers2029 Revenue target
13 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Broadly adopted by pharma: selected for global phase III programs, including AFT-70 NAVIGATE. <1 ppm LOD95 limit of detection based on cell line dilution study1 <1 in 10 million ctDNA detected significantly below this level Data emerging: now the platform behind our newest trials and readouts. Initial data exceptional: Strong performance across cancer types. Signatera Genome with Phased and Structural Variants ANALYTICAL SENSITIVITY 1. William, et al. SOHO 2026
14 Not for reproduction or further distribution. ESMO 2026: Signatera is changing practice SAGITTARIUS · phase III, colon cancer VOLGA (AstraZeneca study) · phase III, bladder cancer 25 abstracts featuring Natera technology 9 oral presentations, incl. Presidential Symposium 2 publications: Nature Medicine and ESMO Open 1 in 3 patients had treatment plans changed by Signatera results; 87% were de-escalations. 91% 24-month EFS when persistently Signatera-negative before cystectomy.* Signatera Genome with Phased and Structural variants.1 ICONIC · Gastroesophageal >7.3 mo Median lead time over imaging; Signatera Genome with Phased and Structural variants detected all evaluable recurrences. Signatera-guided reflex to liquid CGP 10 tumor types Liquid CGP together with Signatera provided real-time actionable genomic context, identifying clinically relevant biomarkers, including ESR1, BRAF, FGFR3, and BRCA2. 1. Additional data included that 60% of baseline ctDNA-positive patients achieved ctDNA clearance following treatment with durvalumab + enfortumab vedotin. This VOLGA data at ESMO was from an exploratory preliminary batch analysis.
15 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Stage II-III ER+/HER2- breast cancer Post-definitive therapy CDK4/6 inhibitor eligible Signatera- negative Eligible for enrollment R 1:1 Standard of Care AI/TAM + CDK4/6i Investigational Oral SERD monotherapy (Giredestrant) Signatera-positive During therapy Escalation Add CDK4/6i Signatera- positive Ineligible for enrollment >2,000 patients expected to enroll ~200 sites in the U.S. and internationally 4-yr DRFS primary endpoint (non-inferiority) Launch of AFT-70 NAVIGATE Signatera-guided treatment de-escalation in adjuvant breast cancer
16 Not for reproduction or further distribution. HEAD & NECK CANCER LYMPHOMA Emerging indications: head & neck cancer and lymphoma New peer-reviewed data validate Signatera in additional cancer types ● Published studies in JAMA Otolaryngology, npj Precision Oncology, and Advances in Radiation Oncology. ● Strong performance in HPV-positive and HPV-negative disease, with 100% specificity. ● Builds on prospective, Phase 2 SINERGY trial, presented as an oral plenary at the 2026 Multidisciplinary Head and Neck Cancers Symposium. ● Largest real-world ctDNA lymphoma dataset published (Blood Neoplasia). ● 45x increased risk of an EFS event when Signatera-positive at end of treatment, with 100% PPV vs. 62% for PET/CT. ● Detected recurrence a median of 5.3 months before imaging or biopsy.
17 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Early cancer detection update COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING FIND-CRC: PMA Enrollment Complete ● Prospective screening study fully enrolled, with 30K patients in PMA cohort. ● Progressing toward FDA-enabling readout. MULTI-CANCER EARLY DETECTION FDA Breakthrough Device Designation ● Granted October 2026 for MCED assay. ● Program continuing to progress on plan. Both programs positioned to support FDA submissions
18 Not for reproduction or further distribution. FY’26 Q3 Financial Review ($ in millions, except for per share data) Balance sheet Sep 30, 2026 Dec 31, 2025 Change Cash2 $1,097.2 $1,076.1 $21.1 UBS line of credit $80.3 $80.3 $ — FY26 Q3 FY25 Q3 Change Y/Y Total revenues $794.0 $592.2 $201.8 Gross margin %1 64.7% 64.9% (24) bps R&D $242.4 $173.4 $69.0 SG&A $333.7 $308.5 $25.2 Net loss per diluted share ($0.42) ($0.64) $0.22 1. Gross margin percentage is computed as follows: GAAP revenues minus GAAP cost of product revenues and licensing and other revenues divided by GAAP revenues. 2. Cash also includes cash equivalents and restricted cash.
19 Not for reproduction or further distribution. Opex summary ● Large increase in ECD to support FIND trial and assay development. ● Significant step up in clinical trial spend focused on Signatera. ● Continued focus on new product development, COGS reduction efforts. Year on year R&D expense Year on year SG&A expense $626M $925M $1,177M $1,300M 2025 2026 (projected) 2025 New product development Product Support Clinical Trials (Non-ECD) Early Cancer Detection Foresight Support functions Sales Marketing Legal Foresight Key R&D Initiatives 2026 (projected)
20 Not for reproduction or further distribution. 1. Gross margin percentage is computed as follows: GAAP revenues minus GAAP cost of product revenues and licensing and other revenues divided by GAAP revenues. Raising 2026 annual revenue guidance by $140 million Guide ($ millions) Q2 Guide Current Key drivers Revenue $2,850–$2,910 $3,005 – $3,035 Continued volume growth, conservative ASPs, strong oncology contribution Gross margin %1 64%–66% 64%–66% Strong organic progress in Q3; ex-true-up margin up ~140 bps vs. Q2 SG&A $1,125–$1,225 $1,225 – $1,300 Adjusting for one-time expenses, acceleration of Signatera marketing efforts R&D $800–$900 $825–$925 FIND study, MRD trials, pharma investment acceleration Cash flow Positive Positive Doubling down on investments while remaining cash flow positive
The tests described have been developed and their performance characteristics determined by the CLIA-certified laboratory performing the test. The tests have not been cleared or approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Although FDA is exercising enforcement discretion of premarket review and other FDA legal requirements for laboratory-developed tests in the US, certification of the laboratory is required under CLIA to ensure the quality and validity of the tests. CAP accredited, ISO 13485 certified, and CLIA certified. © 2026 Natera, Inc. All Rights Reserved.