Vale (VALE) projects iron ore, copper growth and outlines Brumadinho cash outflows
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Vale S.A. updates its long-term operating and investment estimates, giving investors a clearer picture of expected production, costs and cash outflows. For iron ore, the company projects about 335 Mt in 2025, rising to roughly 360 Mt in 2030, with iron ore agglomerates reaching 60–70 Mt in 2030. Copper output is estimated at around 370 kt in 2025, growing to 420–500 kt in 2030 and about 700 kt in 2035, while nickel is expected at roughly 175 kt in 2025 and 210–250 kt in 2030.
Vale forecasts 2025 all-in iron ore costs of about US$55/t and C1 cash costs of US$21.3/t, with 2026 all-in iron ore costs guided to US$52–56/t. Fixed expenditures for Iron Ore Solutions are projected near US$5.8 billion in 2025 and US$5.7 billion in 2026, and total CAPEX around US$5.5 billion in 2025 and US$5.4–5.7 billion in 2026.
The company also details estimated cash outflows for decharacterization, Brumadinho and Samarco commitments, totaling US$4.2 billion in 2025 and US$2.6 billion in 2026, and provides free cash flow yield sensitivities for 2026 and 2030 under various iron ore, copper and nickel price ranges. Vale notes that some previous metrics, including 2025 free cash flow yield, have been discontinued and emphasizes that all figures are non-binding estimates subject to market conditions.
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Insights
Vale tightens long-term volume, cost and cash-outlook guidance without changing its overall strategy.
Vale outlines medium- and long-term volume growth, with iron ore production expected at about
Cost guidance suggests stable to slightly improving competitiveness. C1 iron ore cash costs are estimated at
A key element is the detailed schedule of cash outflows related to decharacterization, Brumadinho and Samarco, with about
United States
Securities and Exchange Commission
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
Report of Foreign Private Issuer
Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16
of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the month of
December 2025
Vale S.A.
Praia de Botafogo nº 186, 18º andar,
Botafogo
22250-145 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
(Address of principal executive office)
(Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.)
(Check One) Form 20-F x Form 40-F ¨
Vale informs on estimates update Rio de Janeiro, December 2, 2025 - Vale S.A. ("Vale" or "Company") informs that it has updated the estimates mentioned below, which should be considered as follows: Estimated production volumes: Year 2025 2026 2030 2035 Iron ore (Mt)(1) ~335 335-345 ~360 - Iron ore - agglomerates (Mt)(2) ~31 30-34 60-70 - Iron ore - from reused tailings (Mt)(3) - - >30 - Copper (kt) ~370 350-380 420-500 ~700 Nickel (kt) ~175 175-200 210-250 - (1) Includes own production and purchases from third-party. (2) Included in the total iron ore production forecast. (3) Included in the total iron ore fines production guidance. Sale Volumes - Iron ore products: Mid-Grade Carajás and PFC (million tons): Year 2025 2026 Mid-Grade Carajás ~33 ~50 Pellet feed China - PFC ~26 ~40 Average Fe content of products sold from Iron Ore Solutions: Year 2025 Fe (%) ~62.5 All-in components (US$/t): Year 2025 2026 C1 cash cost of iron ore (1) 21.3 20-21.5 All-in iron ore cost (2) ~55 52-56 All-in copper cost (3) ~1,000 1,000 – 1,500 All-in nickel cost ~13,000 12.000-13,500 (1) Includes the main direct production costs, such as mine, processing, railway and port costs. Does not include third-party purchases. Values are in nominal terms. Assumes a BRL/USD exchange rate of 5.60, in real terms, for the years 2025 and 2026. (2) In addition to the assumption in footnote (1), there are freight costs, expenses, iron ore all-in premium, and others. (3) Assumes an average gold price of US$3,400 per troy ounce for 2025 and US$3,500 per troy ounce for 2026. Fixed expenditures with Iron Ore Solutions (US$ billion): Year 2025 2026 Fixed expenditures1 (US$ billion) ~5.8 ~5.7 (1) Includes the main production, maintenance, SG&A, and other costs. Assumes a BRL/USD exchange rate of 5.60, in real terms, for the years 2025 and 2026. Capital investments by type (US$ billion) (1): Year 2025 2026 Investment for growth ~1.2 ~1.1 Maintenance investment ~4.3 ~4.5 Total CAPEX (US$ billion) ~5.5 5.4-5.7 (1) Values in real terms. (2) Assumes a BRL/USD exchange rate of 5.60 for the years 2025 and 2026, and BRL/USD 5.65 from 2027 onwards. Capital investments by business (US$ billion) (1): Year 2025 2026 2027+ Iron Ore Solutions ~3.9 ~4.0 ~3.9 Vale Base Metals ~1.6 ~1.6 ~2.0 Total ~5.5 5.4-5.7 <6 (1) Assumes a BRL/USD exchange rate of 5.60 for the years 2025 and 2026, and BRL/USD 5.65 for 2027+. (2) Including Energy and other businesses. Press Release Commitments - Decharacterization, Brumadinho & Mariana (US$ billion)(1) (2): Year 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031-35 Average Decharacterization(³) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 Brumadinho Settlement(4) 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 <0.1 Samarco Settement 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.3 - Expenses incurred 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 - - Total 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 (1) Estimated cash outflow for the period 2025–2035, considering BRL/USD exchange rates of 5.3186 as updated on September 30, 2025, and values expressed in real terms. This projection will be updated quarterly based on the exchange rate applied in the financial statements. (2) Amounts presented without discounting to present value, net of judicial deposits and monetary adjustments. (3) The estimated average annual cash flow for decharacterization provisions in the period 2031–2035 is US$186 million per year. (4) Disbursements related to the Comprehensive Reparation Agreement ending in 2031. Sale Volumes (million tons, copper equivalent): Year 2025 2030 Sale Volumes (Mt, copper equivalent)(1) ~3.8 ~4.3 (1) Based on Vale’s projections and the long-term price consensus from market analysts. Considering US$85/t for iron ore (62% Fe), US$140/t for pellets, US$10,200/t for copper, and US$17,400/t for nickel. Free Cash Flow yield: Sensitivity of Vale's Free Cash Flow yield in 2026, in real terms, ranging from 6% to 14%, following the assumptions: (a) average annual iron ore price (62% Fe benchmark) ranging from US$ 95/t to US$ 110/t; (b) average annual nickel price (LME) ranging from US$/t 15,000/t to US$ 17,000/t; (c) average annual copper price (LME) ranging from US$ 9,500/t to US$ 11,500/t. Sensitivity of Vale's Free Cash Flow yield in 2030, in real terms, ranging from 8% to 21%, following the assumptions: (a) average annual iron ore price (62% Fe benchmark) ranging from US$ 90/t to US$ 110/t; (b) average annual nickel price (LME) ranging from US$ 15,000/t to US$ 20,000/t; (c) average annual copper price (LME) ranging from US$ 10,000/t to US$ 12,000/t. Discontinued estimates: The Company announces that the following estimates have been discontinued: (i) average iron content grade for the years 2026 and 2030, (ii) iron ore all-in premium for the years 2025 and 2026, and (iii) free cash flow yield in 2025. All other projections not included in this document remain unchanged, notably the projections for iron ore C1 and All-in costs for the year 2030. Additional comments: The estimate previously titled “Iron Ore Product Sales: Medium-Grade Carajás and PFC (million tonnes)” has been renamed to “Sales Volume – Iron Ore Products: Medium-Grade Carajás and PFC (million tonnes)” and has been updated as mentioned above. The Company clarifies that the information disclosed in this document represents only an estimate, hypothetical data that in no way constitutes a performance guarantee by Vale and/or its management. The estimates presented involve market factors beyond Vale’s control and, therefore, may be subject to change. Additionally, Vale informs that it will duly resubmit item 3 of its Reference Form within the timeframe established by CVM Resolution No. 80/2022. Marcelo Feriozzi Bacci Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations For further information, please contact: Vale.RI@vale.com Thiago Lofiego: thiago.lofiego@vale.com Mariana Rocha: mariana.rocha@vale.com Luciana Oliveti: luciana.oliveti@vale.com Pedro Terra: pedro.terra@vale.com Patricia Tinoco: patricia.tinoco@vale.com This press release may include statements that present Vale’s expectations about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20-F.
Signatures
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
| Vale S.A. (Registrant) | ||
| By: | /s/ Thiago Lofiego | |
| Date: December 2, 2025 | Director of Investor Relations | |
FAQ
What production volumes does Vale (VALE) forecast for iron ore in 2025 and 2030?
Vale estimates total iron ore production of around 335 Mt in 2025 and about 360 Mt in 2030. Iron ore agglomerates are expected to reach 60–70 Mt in 2030, included within the total iron ore guidance.
How much copper and nickel production is Vale (VALE) targeting in its long-term plan?
For copper, Vale guides to roughly 370 kt in 2025, 350–380 kt in 2026, 420–500 kt in 2030 and about 700 kt in 2035. Nickel production is estimated at about 175 kt in 2025, 175–200 kt in 2026 and 210–250 kt in 2030.
What cost guidance does Vale (VALE) provide for its iron ore business?
Vale projects C1 cash cost of iron ore of US$21.3/t in 2025 and US$20–21.5/t in 2026, assuming a BRL/USD rate of 5.60. All-in iron ore costs are estimated at about US$55/t in 2025 and US$52–56/t in 2026, including freight, expenses, all-in premium and other items.
What CAPEX levels does Vale (VALE) expect for 2025 and 2026?
Vale forecasts total CAPEX of about US$5.5 billion in 2025 and US$5.4–5.7 billion in 2026. For 2025, this includes roughly US$1.2 billion for growth and US$4.3 billion for maintenance, with similar proportions in 2026.
How large are Vale’s (VALE) expected cash outflows for Brumadinho, Samarco and decharacterization?
For
What free cash flow yield sensitivities does Vale (VALE) disclose for 2026 and 2030?
Vale presents 2026 free cash flow yield sensitivities ranging from about 6% to 14% in real terms, based on iron ore prices of US$95–110/t, nickel prices of US$15,000–17,000/t and copper prices of US$9,500–11,500/t. For 2030, the range is about 8% to 21%, using iron ore prices of US$90–110/t, nickel of US$15,000–20,000/t and copper of US$10,000–12,000/t.
Which previous estimates has Vale (VALE) discontinued in this update?
Vale states it has discontinued estimates for average iron content grade in 2026 and 2030, the iron ore all-in premium for 2025 and 2026, and its 2025 free cash flow yield. Other projections, including 2030 iron ore C1 and all-in costs, remain unchanged.
