Aemetis to Benefit From EPA’s Approval of 15 Percent Ethanol Blend

Rhea-AI Summary

Aemetis stands to benefit from the EPA's recent approval of 15% ethanol blend (E15) fuel sales nationwide after May 1st. This decision could potentially increase the U.S. ethanol market by up to 50%, up from the current 10.4% average blend and 14.2 billion gallons in 2024.

The EPA's waiver applies throughout the United States, except California, with consumers expected to save up to $0.20 per gallon at the pump. In California specifically, adopting E15 could create over 600 million gallons of new biofuels demand and save consumers approximately $2.7 billion annually.

A bipartisan Senate Bill 2707, the "Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act," has been introduced by 14 senators to make year-round E15 sales permanent nationwide. The EPA confirms E15 is approved for over 95% of vehicles currently on the road, promising benefits including lower fuel costs, reduced carbon emissions, stronger rural economies, and enhanced energy independence.

Positive

• EPA approval for E15 blend could increase ethanol market demand by up to 50% nationwide
• Potential new demand of 600M gallons per year in California if E15 is adopted
• Expected consumer savings of $0.20 per gallon could drive higher adoption
• Bipartisan Senate Bill 2707 proposes permanent year-round E15 sales nationwide
• Product already approved for 95% of vehicles on road, indicating ready market

Negative

• California market remains restricted as only state without E15 approval
• Current average ethanol blend (10.4%) indicates significant market penetration needed
• Regulatory dependency on EPA waivers and state approvals for market expansion

Insights

Renewable Energy Analyst

EPA's E15 approval creates significant market expansion opportunity for Aemetis by potentially increasing ethanol demand by up to 50% nationwide.

The EPA's decision to allow continued sales of E15 (15% ethanol blend) after May 1st represents a significant regulatory development for Aemetis and the broader biofuels industry. Currently, the U.S. ethanol market operates at an average blend of 10.4% with 14.2 billion gallons consumed in 2024. By enabling E15 adoption, this creates potential for up to a 50% increase in the market for ethanol in the U.S.

This waiver applies nationwide except for California, which notably maintains the highest average gasoline prices in the country. The potential California opportunity remains substantial, as Governor Newsom has requested completion of the required study to adopt E15, which could create an additional 600 million gallons of annual biofuels demand in that state alone.

For consumers, E15 adoption offers tangible economic benefits with savings of up to $0.20 per gallon at the pump. This economic incentive, combined with environmental benefits including reduced greenhouse gas emissions and lower exposure to carcinogens in gasoline, creates multiple drivers for adoption.

The regulatory momentum appears positive, with bipartisan support through Senate Bill 2707 (the "Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act") seeking to establish permanent year-round E15 sales. The EPA has also indicated its intention to ensure E15 remains available throughout the summer driving season.

With E15 approved for 95% of vehicles on the road today according to the EPA, technical barriers to adoption are minimal, positioning Aemetis to potentially benefit from this expanded market opportunity.

Financial Analyst

EPA's E15 approval expands Aemetis' addressable market by up to 50%, with additional 600M gallon opportunity pending in California.

The EPA's E15 waiver removes a significant market constraint for Aemetis, enabling continued nationwide sales (except California) of 15% ethanol blends after May 1st. This regulatory development represents a material market expansion opportunity, potentially increasing the addressable ethanol market by up to 50% compared to current levels.

While the press release doesn't specify Aemetis' current production capacity or market share, the expansion of the total addressable market creates growth runway without requiring market share gains. The consumer savings proposition of $0.20 per gallon provides economic incentive for adoption beyond regulatory requirements.

The California opportunity represents a distinct growth catalyst, with potential demand creation of 600 million gallons annually if the state completes its approval process. This would translate to approximately $2.7 billion in consumer savings at California pumps annually, creating economic and political incentives for approval.

The bipartisan support for Senate Bill 2707 suggests potential for longer-term regulatory stability, reducing policy risk around this market opportunity. This stability is valuable for capital investment planning and business development strategy.

While the immediate approval is a waiver rather than permanent legislation, the EPA has indicated intent to maintain E15 availability throughout the summer driving season. The movement toward permanent approval through congressional action provides visibility into potential sustained market expansion.

For Aemetis specifically, this regulatory win aligns with their positioning as a "diversified global renewable natural gas and biofuels company," creating pathway for expanded ethanol sales without requiring market share gains from competitors.

Consumers are expected to save up to $0.20 per gallon at the pump

CUPERTINO, Calif., April 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), a diversified global renewable natural gas and biofuels company, announced today that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a waiver allowing a 15 percent blend of ethanol (E15) to continue to be sold after May 1st which will benefit the company through increased demand and sales of the renewable fuel nationwide. The average blend of ethanol in the U.S. in 2024 was 10.4% and 14.2 billion gallons. The adoption of E15 allows up to a 50% increase in the market for ethanol in the U.S.

“The EPA’s action allowing nationwide E15 sales to continue is a significant step toward increasing the demand for ethanol and has broad support for permanent approval from the President, as well as numerous members of Congress,” stated Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis. “Permanent national approval of E15 would allow the demand for ethanol to grow as consumers nationwide benefit from lower-cost, domestic, renewable fuel that lowers the price of gasoline and supports rural communities with good jobs throughout the country.”

The EPA has indicated its intent to ensure that E15 remains available throughout the summer driving season. The EPA’s action applies throughout the United States, except California. The E15 blend is expected to help American drivers save money at the pump, reduce carbon emissions, strengthen rural economies, and enhance U.S. energy independence, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

California is now the only state in the US that has not approved the E15 blend and typically has the highest average gasoline prices nationwide. To address the situation, Governor Gavin Newsom earlier this year issued a letter to the California Air and Resources Board (CARB) requesting completion of the study required to adopt E15 in California.

The adoption of a 15 percent ethanol blend in California is projected to create more than 600 million gallons per year of new biofuels demand and save consumers an estimated twenty cents per gallon, or approximately $2.7 billion at the pump each year, according to a UC Berkeley and US Naval Academy study. Californians would also benefit from reduced greenhouse gas emissions from the increased use of ethanol, and reduced exposure to benzene and other carcinogens in gasoline.

Senate Bill 2707, the “Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act,” was recently introduced into the U.S. Congress by 14 senators. This bill proposes the permanent sale of year-round E15 throughout the United States, except in states such as California that have their own fuel regulations. The E15 blend is approved for use in more than 95 percent of vehicles on the road today, according to the EPA.

About Aemetis

Headquartered in Cupertino, California, Aemetis is a renewable natural gas and biofuels company focused on the operation, acquisition, development, and commercialization of innovative technologies that support energy independence and security. Founded in 2006, Aemetis operates and is expanding a California biogas digester network and pipeline system to convert dairy waste into renewable natural gas. Aemetis owns and operates a 65 million gallon per year ethanol production facility in California’s Central Valley near Modesto that also supplies about 80 dairies with animal feed. Aemetis owns and operates an 80 million gallon per year biofuels facility on the East Coast of India producing high quality distilled biodiesel and refined glycerin. Aemetis is developing a sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel biorefinery and a carbon sequestration project in California. For additional information about Aemetis, please visit www.aemetis.com.

Safe Harbor Statement

This news release contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding assumptions, projections, expectations, targets, intentions or beliefs about future events or other statements that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections of financial results; statements related to the development, engineering, financing, construction, timing, and operation of biodiesel, biogas, sustainable aviation fuel, CO2 sequestration, and other facilities; our ability to promote, develop, finance, and construct such facilities; and statements about future market demand and market prices and results of government actions. Words or phrases such as “anticipates,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “believes,” “estimates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “targets,” “view,” “will likely result,” “will continue” or similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and predictions and are subject to many risks and uncertainties. Actual results or events could differ materially from those set forth or implied by such forward-looking statements and related assumptions due to certain factors, including, without limitation, competition in the ethanol, biodiesel and other industries in which we operate, commodity market risks including those that may result from current weather conditions, financial market risks, customer adoption, counter-party risks, risks associated with changes to government policy or regulation, and other risks detailed in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Annual Reports on Form 10-K, and in our other filings with the SEC. We are not obligated, and do not intend, to update any of these forward-looking statements at any time unless an update is required by applicable securities laws.

Company Investor Relations
Media Contact:
Todd Waltz
(408) 213-0940
investors@aemetis.com

External Investor Relations
Contact:
Kirin Smith
PCG Advisory Group
(646) 863-6519
ksmith@pcgadvisory.com

FAQ

How much will consumers save with EPA's E15 ethanol blend approval for Aemetis (AMTX)?

According to the press release, consumers are expected to save up to $0.20 per gallon at the pump with the EPA-approved 15% ethanol blend (E15). In California specifically, this could lead to approximately $2.7 billion in annual savings for consumers.

What is the potential market increase for Aemetis (AMTX) with the EPA's E15 approval in 2025?

The EPA's approval of E15 allows for up to a 50% increase in the U.S. ethanol market. Current ethanol blend levels are at 10.4% with 14.2 billion gallons used in 2024, indicating significant growth potential for Aemetis.

How many vehicles can use the EPA-approved E15 ethanol blend from Aemetis (AMTX)?

According to the EPA, the E15 blend is approved for use in more than 95% of vehicles currently on the road today.

What is the status of E15 ethanol blend adoption in California for Aemetis (AMTX)?

California is the only U.S. state that hasn't approved E15 blend. Governor Newsom has requested CARB to complete the required study for E15 adoption, which could create over 600 million gallons per year of new biofuels demand in California.

What is Senate Bill 2707's impact on Aemetis (AMTX) E15 sales?

Senate Bill 2707, the 'Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act,' introduced by 14 senators, proposes permanent year-round E15 sales throughout the United States, except in states with their own fuel regulations like California.