Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture

Rhea-AI Summary

Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (CME) fell 3 points in December to 136, driven by a softer long-term outlook; the Future Expectations Index slipped 4 points to 140 while the Current Conditions Index held at 128. The survey (Dec. 1-5, 2025) showed mixed export views: only 5% expect overall agricultural exports to decline, but 13% of corn and soybean growers expect soybean exports to fall in five years, and concern over Brazilian competition is high at 84%.

Farm financial and investment indices edged up modestly (Farm Financial Performance 94, Farm Capital Investment 58), farmland value expectations rose slightly and the long-term farmland index hit a record 166. Support for tariffs as beneficial dipped to 54%.

Positive

• Ag Economy Barometer at 136 provides baseline investor metric
• Future Expectations index still at 140
• Farm Financial Performance index rose to 94
• Long-term farmland value index reached a record 166

Negative

• Barometer declined 3 points month-over-month
• Grower concern over U.S. soybean competitiveness at 84%
• 13% of corn and soybean growers expect soybean exports to decline
• Support for tariffs as positive fell to 54%

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer 136 December reading, down 3 points from prior month

Future Expectations Index 140 December, down 4 points from November

Current Conditions Index 128 December, unchanged from prior month

Farm Financial Performance Index 94 December, up 2 points vs November

Farm Capital Investment Index 58 December, up 2 points; majority still cautious

Soybean export concern 84% Corn and soybean producers concerned or very concerned vs Brazil

Very concerned share 45% Corn and soybean producers very concerned about U.S. competitiveness

Long-term farmland index 166 Record high; 20 points above September low

Market Reality Check

$266.64 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,364,385 is below the 20-day average of 1,602,440, suggesting no unusual trading interest ahead of this survey update. normal

Technical Price at 275.06 is trading above the 200-day MA at 271.58, indicating an established upward trend before this news.

Peers on Argus

Key peers like ICE, COIN, MCO, NDAQ and SPGI all showed positive moves today (e.g., ICE +3.85%, SPGI +4.09%), while CME was up 1.99%. Sector names broadly traded higher, but momentum scanners did not flag a coordinated sector move.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 22	Product launch	Positive	+1.5%	Launch of FanDuel Predicts prediction-markets app with phased U.S. rollout.
Dec 22	Correction notice	Neutral	+1.5%	Clarified details of the FanDuel Predicts launch and distribution.
Dec 18	Corporate governance	Neutral	+1.1%	Announcement of date and time for the 2026 annual shareholder meeting.
Dec 17	Earnings schedule	Neutral	+0.3%	Set timing and access details for Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release.
Dec 15	Crypto product launch	Positive	-0.5%	Launch of spot-quoted XRP and SOL futures expanding crypto offerings.

Pattern Detected

Recent CME headlines have generally seen modestly positive price reactions, with one divergence where a new crypto futures launch coincided with a small price decline.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, CME has focused on product expansion and capital markets communications. Launches like FanDuel Predicts and spot-quoted XRP and SOL futures, along with announcements of the 2026 annual meeting and the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release, framed a steady strategic path. Most prior news saw modest positive alignment between headlines and price, with only the crypto futures launch showing a small divergence. Today’s agriculture sentiment piece fits into broader macro-related updates rather than a company-specific catalyst.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlighted a modest softening in farmer sentiment, with the Ag Economy Barometer slipping to 136 and future expectations easing, even as long-term farmland value expectations reached a record 166. For CME, which co-sponsors the index, the data offers color on producer confidence and trade concerns, especially around soybeans and Brazil. Investors may watch future barometer readings, trade policy shifts, and how expectations for exports evolve over the next few surveys.

Key Terms

tariffs regulatory

"Producers' confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy"

Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on goods imported from other countries. They increase the cost of those goods, which can lead to higher prices for consumers and impact international trade. For investors, tariffs matter because they can influence the profitability of companies, affect supply chains, and shift economic stability across different regions.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment dipped slightly in December, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropping 3 points to 136. The decline was attributable to a softening in producers' long-term outlook. The Future Expectations Index fell 4 points from the previous month to 140, while the Current Conditions Index remained steady at 128. Crop producers expressed increased concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports as Brazil expands its role in global markets, contributing to the more cautious outlook. The survey was conducted Dec. 1-5, 2025.

Producers' expectations for their farms' financial performance remained mostly unchanged in December. The Farm Financial Performance Index inched up 2 points to 94, reflecting more producers expecting this year's farm financial performance to be similar to last year's. The Farm Capital Investment Index also rose 2 points to 58. Despite this increase, most producers (60%) still see December as a bad time to make large farm investments.

"Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future."

Farmers' views on U.S. agricultural exports were mixed in December. When asked a generic question about the long-term outlook for agricultural exports, producers offered one of their most optimistic readings of the year, with only 5% expecting exports to decline over the next five years. However, their perspective shifted when the focus turned specifically to soybeans, a major agricultural export. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decrease in the next five years, up from 8% in November. At the same time, the percentage of growers expecting soybean exports to increase fell from 47% in November to 39% in December. Rising competition from Brazil is on producers' minds: 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, with 45% reporting they were very concerned.

Farmers remained optimistic about farmland values in December. Both the Short-Term and Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations indices stayed relatively steady, each increasing by just 1 point from November. This small gain pushed the short-term index to 117, making it 11 points higher than its September low and 7 points above last year's level. The long-term index reached 166, a new record high, and now stands 20 points above its September low and 11 points higher than this time last year.

Producers' confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy continued to decline in December. Just 54% of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58% in October and 59% in November. Uncertainty about the long-run impact of tariff policies also grew, with 19% of producers expressing uncertainty in December compared to 17% the month before. Since this question was first introduced in the spring, the percentage of producers uncertain about tariff effects has more than doubled. Despite this, overall optimism about the country's direction improved noticeably. In December, 75% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the "right direction," the highest reading recorded since the question was added to the barometer survey in July.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Sources and Notes block:
Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-drifts-lower-as-trade-uncertainty-hangs-over-agriculture-302653025.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer (CME) report for December 2025?

The barometer fell 3 points to 136 in December 2025; Future Expectations dropped to 140 and Current Conditions held at 128.

How did farmers rate farmland values in the December 2025 survey (CME)?

Short- and long-term farmland value expectations rose slightly; the long-term index hit a record 166.

What do corn and soybean growers say about soybean export prospects (CME Dec. 2025)?

13% expect soybean exports to decrease over five years, up from 8% in November; 39% expect increases.

How concerned are farmers about competition from Brazil for soybeans (CME Dec. 2025)?

84% of corn and soybean producers reported they were concerned or very concerned about U.S. soybean competitiveness vs Brazil.

Did farmers’ expectations for farm finances change in December 2025 (CME)?

Farm Financial Performance inched up 2 points to 94, indicating mostly unchanged expectations year over year.

How did producer views on tariffs change in December 2025 (CME)?

The share saying tariffs would have a positive effect fell to 54%, down from 59% in November.