Farmer sentiment improves as long-term optimism outweighs tariff concerns
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 8 points to 148 in April 2025, showing improved farmer sentiment. The Index of Current Conditions increased to 141 (+9 points) and the Index of Future Expectations climbed to 152 (+8 points). The Farm Capital Investment Index reached 61, its highest since May 2021, with 25% of producers viewing it as a good time for large investments.
Despite ongoing trade tensions and tariff concerns, 70% of farmers believe increased tariffs will benefit U.S. agriculture long-term. However, 56% expect negative impacts on 2025 farm income, and 53% anticipate input supply challenges. Farm equipment sales declined significantly in Q1 2025, with tractor sales dropping 19% and combine sales falling 38% year-over-year. The Farm Financial Performance Index remained stable at 101, while farmland value expectations weakened slightly.
Il Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer è salito di 8 punti a 148 nell'aprile 2025, indicando un miglioramento nel sentiment degli agricoltori. L'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali è aumentato a 141 (+9 punti) e l'Indice delle Aspettative Future è salito a 152 (+8 punti). L'Indice degli Investimenti in Capitale Agricolo ha raggiunto 61, il livello più alto da maggio 2021, con il 25% dei produttori che considera questo un buon momento per investimenti importanti.
Nonostante le tensioni commerciali in corso e le preoccupazioni sui dazi, il 70% degli agricoltori ritiene che l'aumento dei dazi favorirà a lungo termine l'agricoltura statunitense. Tuttavia, il 56% prevede effetti negativi sul reddito agricolo del 2025 e il 53% si aspetta problemi nella fornitura di input. Le vendite di macchinari agricoli sono diminuite significativamente nel primo trimestre del 2025, con le vendite di trattori in calo del 19% e quelle di mietitrebbie del 38% su base annua. L'Indice delle Prestazioni Finanziarie Agricole è rimasto stabile a 101, mentre le aspettative sul valore delle terre agricole si sono leggermente indebolite.
El Barómetro de la Economía Agrícola de la Universidad Purdue/CME Group subió 8 puntos hasta 148 en abril de 2025, mostrando una mejora en el sentimiento de los agricultores. El Índice de Condiciones Actuales aumentó a 141 (+9 puntos) y el Índice de Expectativas Futuras subió a 152 (+8 puntos). El Índice de Inversión en Capital Agrícola alcanzó 61, su nivel más alto desde mayo de 2021, con un 25% de los productores que considera que es un buen momento para realizar grandes inversiones.
A pesar de las tensiones comerciales continuas y las preocupaciones sobre aranceles, el 70% de los agricultores cree que el aumento de los aranceles beneficiará a la agricultura estadounidense a largo plazo. Sin embargo, el 56% espera impactos negativos en los ingresos agrícolas de 2025 y el 53% anticipa desafíos en el suministro de insumos. Las ventas de equipos agrícolas disminuyeron significativamente en el primer trimestre de 2025, con ventas de tractores cayendo un 19% y ventas de cosechadoras un 38% interanual. El Índice de Desempeño Financiero Agrícola se mantuvo estable en 101, mientras que las expectativas sobre el valor de la tierra agrícola se debilitaron ligeramente.
Purdue University/CME Group 농업 경제 바로미터가 2025년 4월에 8포인트 상승하여 148을 기록하며 농민들의 심리가 개선되었음을 보여주었습니다. 현재 상황 지수는 141(+9포인트)로 상승했고, 미래 기대 지수는 152(+8포인트)로 올랐습니다. 농장 자본 투자 지수는 61로 2021년 5월 이후 최고치를 기록했으며, 생산자의 25%가 대규모 투자를 위한 좋은 시기로 보고 있습니다.
계속되는 무역 긴장과 관세 우려에도 불구하고, 농민의 70%는 관세 인상이 장기적으로 미국 농업에 이익이 될 것이라고 믿고 있습니다. 그러나 56%는 2025년 농장 소득에 부정적인 영향을 예상하며, 53%는 투입물 공급 문제를 예상합니다. 2025년 1분기 농기계 판매는 크게 감소했으며, 트랙터 판매는 전년 대비 19%, 콤바인 판매는 38% 감소했습니다. 농장 재무 성과 지수는 101로 안정세를 유지했으며, 농지 가치 기대는 다소 약화되었습니다.
Le Baromètre de l'économie agricole Purdue University/CME Group a augmenté de 8 points pour atteindre 148 en avril 2025, montrant une amélioration du sentiment des agriculteurs. L'Indice des conditions actuelles a progressé à 141 (+9 points) et l'Indice des attentes futures a grimpé à 152 (+8 points). L'Indice des investissements en capital agricole a atteint 61, son plus haut niveau depuis mai 2021, avec 25 % des producteurs qui considèrent que c'est un bon moment pour réaliser des investissements importants.
Malgré les tensions commerciales persistantes et les inquiétudes liées aux tarifs douaniers, 70 % des agriculteurs estiment que l'augmentation des tarifs bénéficiera à long terme à l'agriculture américaine. Cependant, 56 % prévoient des impacts négatifs sur les revenus agricoles en 2025 et 53 % anticipent des difficultés d'approvisionnement en intrants. Les ventes de matériel agricole ont fortement diminué au premier trimestre 2025, avec une baisse de 19 % des ventes de tracteurs et de 38 % des ventes de moissonneuses-batteuses en glissement annuel. L'Indice de performance financière agricole est resté stable à 101, tandis que les attentes concernant la valeur des terres agricoles se sont légèrement affaiblies.
Der Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer stieg im April 2025 um 8 Punkte auf 148 und zeigte eine verbesserte Stimmung unter den Landwirten. Der Index der aktuellen Bedingungen erhöhte sich auf 141 (+9 Punkte) und der Index der zukünftigen Erwartungen stieg auf 152 (+8 Punkte). Der Index der landwirtschaftlichen Kapitalinvestitionen erreichte mit 61 den höchsten Stand seit Mai 2021, wobei 25 % der Produzenten den Zeitpunkt für größere Investitionen als günstig ansehen.
Trotz anhaltender Handelskonflikte und Zollbedenken glauben 70 % der Landwirte, dass höhere Zölle langfristig der US-Landwirtschaft zugutekommen werden. Allerdings erwarten 56 % negative Auswirkungen auf das landwirtschaftliche Einkommen 2025 und 53 % rechnen mit Problemen bei der Versorgung mit Betriebsmitteln. Die Verkäufe von Landmaschinen gingen im ersten Quartal 2025 deutlich zurück, wobei die Traktorverkäufe um 19 % und die Mähdrescherverkäufe um 38 % im Jahresvergleich sanken. Der Index der finanziellen Leistung der Landwirtschaft blieb stabil bei 101, während die Erwartungen hinsichtlich des Werts von Ackerland leicht nachgaben.
- Ag Economy Barometer increased 8 points to 148, showing improved farmer sentiment
- Farm Capital Investment Index rose to 61, highest since May 2021
- Farm Financial Performance Index remained above 100 for fourth consecutive month
- 70% of farmers expect long-term benefits from increased tariffs
- Tractor sales declined 19% and combine sales fell 38% in Q1 2025
- 56% of farmers expect negative impact on 2025 farm income due to tariffs
- 53% anticipate difficulties obtaining inputs due to import tariffs
- Farmland value expectations weakened with 8-point decline
Insights
Farmer sentiment and investment outlook improve despite equipment sales slump, revealing cautious optimism balanced against real economic challenges.
The April Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 8 points to 148, showing significant sentiment improvement despite ongoing trade tensions. Both the Index of Current Conditions (up 9 to 141) and Future Expectations (up 8 to 152) increased, indicating balanced optimism rather than merely hope.
Particularly notable is the Farm Capital Investment Index climbing to 61 - its highest reading since May 2021. We've witnessed a remarkable post-election shift, with the investment index averaging 54 since November compared to just 36 in the six months prior - a 50% improvement. However, this sentiment hasn't yet translated into purchases, as tractor sales fell 19% and combine sales dropped 38% in Q1 2025.
The disconnect between improving sentiment and declining equipment sales reflects a sector in transition. While 25% of producers now believe it's a good time for large investments (nearly double pre-election levels), 65% still consider it a bad time to invest, explaining the equipment sales slump.
The Farm Financial Performance Index held steady at 101, marking four consecutive months above 100, indicating expectations of stable farm finances. Meanwhile, short-term farmland value expectations weakened slightly.
The tariff response data reveals fascinating long vs. short-term perspectives. While 56% expect negative 2025 income impacts and 53% anticipate input supply difficulties (particularly fertilizer and machinery parts), a substantial 70% believe tariffs will strengthen U.S. agriculture long-term. This willingness to accept short-term pain for perceived future benefits demonstrates the sector's resilient outlook despite immediate challenges.
Improving farmer sentiment hasn't yet translated to equipment purchases, creating market disconnects and revealing farmers' willingness to endure short-term tariff pain.
The latest Ag Economy Barometer presents a sector in transition, with sentiment improving faster than actual purchasing behavior. This creates a crucial lag effect that markets need to monitor - improved outlook takes time to translate into capital expenditures.
We're witnessing a striking sentiment-behavior gap. Despite the investment index reaching its highest point since May 2021, equipment sales remain severely depressed with tractors over 100HP down 19% and combines down 38% year-over-year in Q1. The data suggests we're in an inflection period where sentiment has turned positive but actual spending hasn't followed yet.
The post-election investment sentiment surge (averaging 54 versus 36 pre-election) indicates a significant shift in outlook. However, with 65% of producers still believing it's a bad time for major investments, we're seeing cautious optimism rather than unbridled confidence.
Supply chain vulnerabilities merit close attention. The 53% of farmers anticipating input availability challenges due to tariffs (particularly fertilizer, machinery parts, and crop chemicals) represent potential production constraints that could affect yields and costs.
The divergence between weakening short-term farmland value expectations (index down 8 points) and improving overall sentiment suggests farmers are recalibrating asset valuations amid changing conditions.
Most revealing is producers' perspective on tariffs - despite 56% expecting negative 2025 income impacts, 70% anticipate long-term benefits to U.S. agriculture. This willingness to endure short-term challenges for perceived structural improvements indicates a sector taking a multi-year view rather than focusing solely on immediate conditions, creating potential market mispricing of both near-term risks and long-term resilience.
"Producers seem to be gaining confidence in the ag economy's longer-term outlook in spite of concerns they have about the impact of tariffs," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "This month's results suggest some producers are starting to look beyond near-term uncertainty and focus more on positioning their farms for the future."
The Farm Capital Investment Index rose to 61 in April, a 7-point increase from March and the highest investment index reading since May 2021. Since the November 2024 election, there has been a marked shift in producers' attitudes toward large investments. From May through October 2024, the index averaged just 36, while the average from November through April grew to 54 — a
Despite a rise in investment sentiment, nearly two-thirds of producers in April's survey still said it was a bad time to invest, suggesting persistent caution among a majority of
The Farm Financial Performance Index held steady in April, dipping just 1 point from last month to a reading of 101. This marks the fourth consecutive month the index has remained above 100, indicating that producers, on average, continue to expect their farm's financial performance this year to match or modestly exceed last year's results.
Expectations for short-term farmland values weakened in April, as the index fell 8 points to a reading of 110. This change was driven by a decrease in the number of producers anticipating higher farmland values in the coming year, balanced by a comparable increase in the percentage of producers expecting values to remain about the same.
The April survey included several questions focused on the impact of the
Despite the concerns expressed by farmers in the April survey about the impact of tariffs on farm incomes and availability of inputs for their farm operations,
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
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Sources and Notes block:
Writer: Morgan French
Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557
CME-G
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SOURCE CME Group
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