Farmer sentiment slips again as high input costs remain top concern

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer for May 2026 fell to 119 from 121, reflecting slightly weaker farmer sentiment.

Rhea-AI Summary

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer for May 2026 fell to 119 from 121, reflecting slightly weaker farmer sentiment. The Current Conditions Index dropped 8 points to its lowest since December 2024, while the Future Expectations Index rose 1 point.

High input costs were the leading concern for 51% of farmers, a record high, and 46% said these costs are limiting financial improvement. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined to 41, its lowest since September 2024, signaling reduced willingness to make major investments.

About two-thirds expect lower net farm income in 2026. Short- and long-term farmland value expectations strengthened, with indices rising to 130 and 160, respectively. Only 52% now see the U.S. as on the “right direction,” down from a 71% average in late 2025.

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News Market Reaction – CME

On Jun 2, the day this news came out, CME closed 2.80% below the previous close.

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Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 119 High input cost concern: 51% Financial position constraint: 46% +5 more

Ag Economy Barometer

119

May 2026 reading, down from 121 in April

High input cost concern

51%

Respondents citing high input costs as top concern

Financial position constraint

46%

Farmers saying high input costs limit financial improvement in 2026

Survey sample size

400 farmers

Nationwide survey conducted May 11–15, 2026

Farm Capital Investment Index

41

May 2026, lowest since September 2024

Short-term farmland index

130

Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, up from 121 in April

Right direction view

52%

Respondents saying U.S. headed in the right direction, May 2026

Livestock outlook

68%

Expecting good times financially for livestock producers over next five years

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jun 01

5 events

1. Jun 01

   Crypto trading expansion

   24h Move

   -5.8%

   Launch of 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading with initial weekend volumes.

2. May 29

   Conference appearance

   24h Move

   -1.4%

   CEO scheduled to present at a major exchange and fintech investor conference.

3. May 21

   Education initiative

   24h Move

   -0.3%

   Awarding scholarships to 25 graduates with $5,000 each and over $1 million donated.

4. May 14

   Annual meeting results

   24h Move

   +0.2%

   Shareholders elected directors, ratified auditor and approved executive compensation at annual meeting.

5. May 14

   New crypto futures

   24h Move

   +0.2%

   Planned launch of Nasdaq CME Crypto Index futures pending regulatory review.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

ag economy barometer, net farm income, break-even prices, artificial intelligence (ai)

4 terms

ag economy barometer technical

"the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 119, down from 121"

A ag economy barometer is an index or composite measure that tracks the health of the agricultural sector by combining signals like crop and livestock prices, farm income, input costs and equipment or land sales into a single readout. Investors use it like a weather gauge for farming—rising readings suggest stronger commodity prices and agribusiness profits while falling readings warn of tighter margins, weaker rural demand and potential impacts on related stocks and loans.

net farm income financial

"questions related to the impact of current events on net farm income and corn"

Net farm income is the amount of money a farming operation actually keeps after paying all its costs—think of a household’s paycheck minus rent, groceries and bills. It sums earnings from crop and livestock sales, government payments and changes in stored inventory, then subtracts production expenses, taxes and depreciation. Investors use it as a quick gauge of the agricultural sector’s profitability and cash flow, which influences commodity prices, farm equipment and lender risk.

break-even prices financial

"impact of current events on net farm income and corn break-even prices in 2026"

The break-even price is the selling price at which revenue exactly covers all costs, so the business or project neither makes a profit nor a loss. Think of it as the minimum score needed to pass a test: any price above it produces profit, any price below it causes losses. Investors use it to judge how much cushion a company has against price drops and to compare risk across projects or markets.

artificial intelligence (ai) technical

"asked about whether artificial intelligence (AI) tools would enhance their current labor"

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as understanding language, recognizing patterns, and making decisions. For investors, AI can enhance how businesses analyze data, automate processes, and innovate, potentially leading to increased efficiency and new opportunities in the market.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., June 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment declined slightly in May as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 119, down from 121 in April. May's results indicated mounting concern about rising input costs and financial pressures, setting new highs and lows for the survey. Although the Future Expectations Index increased by 1 point, the Current Conditions Index dropped 8 points from April, falling to its lowest level since December 2024. At 51%, high input costs were identified by respondents as their top concern, reaching a record high. Additionally, 46% said that high input costs are limiting improvements in their financial position this year. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from May 11-15.

Financial outlooks remained cautious in May. Only 14% of respondents reported that their farm operations were better off financially than a year ago, while 22% said they expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped by 3 points to 41, marking its lowest level since September 2024 and suggesting a reduced willingness to make large investments.

"The persistence of high input costs is especially challenging in an environment where many producers are already operating with tighter margins," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "When producers see fewer opportunities to improve their financial position despite strong operational management, it tends to weigh heavily on perceptions of current conditions and investment plans."

Following April's lead, this month's survey included questions related to the impact of current events on net farm income and corn break-even prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of respondents said they expect their farm's net income to be reduced in 2026. Among respondents who planted corn in 2025, nearly half indicated they expect corn break-even prices to rise by as much as 6%, while 30% expect break-even prices to increase by 10% or more.

Labor availability and technology adoption were also examined in May. Roughly 39% of respondents hire nonfamily members for farm work. Of these, around 44% have encountered some or a lot of difficulty in hiring this year. Respondents were also asked about whether artificial intelligence (AI) tools would enhance their current labor and equipment situation. Approximately 59% believed AI would not improve their situation, 37% thought it would help a little and 4% believed it would help a lot.

Farmland value expectations strengthened this month despite weaker sentiment regarding current conditions. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose from 121 in April to 130 in May, while the long-term index increased from 155 to 160. Producers identified alternative investments, interest rates and net farm income as the three biggest influences on farmland values.

Since July 2025, survey respondents have been asked whether they believe the U.S. is on the "right direction" or the "wrong track." After averaging 71% over the last half of 2025, the percentage of respondents who believe the country is headed in the "right direction" has steadily declined, reaching 52% in May and marking the lowest point since the question was first asked.

Wrapping up the May survey, producers continued to express considerably different outlooks for crop and livestock agriculture. Approximately 31% of respondents said they expect good times financially for crop producers over the next five years, compared with 68% who expect good times for livestock producers.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. 

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

 

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-slips-again-as-high-input-costs-remain-top-concern-302788422.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What is the May 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer reading and what does it show for CME?

The May 2026 Ag Economy Barometer, linked to CME (CME), registered 119, down from 121 in April. According to Purdue University and CME Group, this indicates slightly weaker farmer sentiment amid financial pressures and rising input costs.

Why did farmer sentiment decline in the May 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer (CME)?

Farmer sentiment declined mainly because high input costs and tighter margins are pressuring finances. According to Purdue University and CME Group, 51% cited high input costs as their top concern, and 46% said these costs limit improvements in their financial position.

How did the Farm Capital Investment Index perform in May 2026 in the Purdue/CME survey?

The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped to 41 in May 2026, down 3 points from April. According to Purdue University and CME Group, this is the lowest since September 2024 and suggests reduced willingness to make large farm investments.

What are farmers expecting for net farm income in 2026 according to the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer?

About two-thirds of surveyed farmers expect their net farm income to decline in 2026. According to Purdue University and CME Group, many also anticipate higher corn break-even prices, with nearly half expecting increases up to 6% and 30% expecting 10% or more.

How are farmland value expectations trending in the May 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer?

Farmland value expectations improved in May, with short-term and long-term indices rising to 130 and 160. According to Purdue University and CME Group, producers cited alternative investments, interest rates and net farm income as key drivers of these farmland value views.

What does the May 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer say about crop vs. livestock outlooks?

Farmers reported a more optimistic outlook for livestock than crops over the next five years. According to Purdue University and CME Group, 31% expect good times for crop producers, compared with 68% who foresee good times for livestock producers.