High input-cost concerns continue to weigh on farmer sentiment

Rhea-AI Summary

The June Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed farmer sentiment falling 6 points to 113, with the Current Conditions Index at an 18‑month low of 102 and the Future Expectations Index down 7 points.

High input costs were the top concern for 47% of producers, and 42% said these costs are limiting financial improvement in 2026. Only 12% felt better off financially than a year ago, and the Farm Capital Investment Index slid to 40, its lowest since September 2024.

Most respondents saw limited benefit from AI and data-driven tools, with 52% reporting no meaningful benefit and 63% saying AI recommendations would sometimes be difficult to follow. Producers were more optimistic on exports and free trade, and long-term farmland value expectations stayed strong.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

What This Means

The latest Ag Economy Barometer reading of 113 highlighted pressure from high input costs and weak c...

Analysis

The latest Ag Economy Barometer reading of 113 highlighted pressure from high input costs and weak capital investment appetite, even as long-term farmland value expectations hit 166. For CME, this frames the operating environment for agricultural risk-management demand.

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 113 High input cost concern: 47% Survey size: 400 farmers +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer 113 June 2026 reading after 6-point decline

High input cost concern 47% Share of producers citing high input costs as top challenge

Survey size 400 farmers Nationwide survey conducted June 15–19, 2026

Farm Capital Investment Index 40 June 2026 level, lowest since September 2024

No AI benefit seen 52% Producers saying AI and data tools offer no meaningful benefit

Expect exports to increase 43% Producers’ five-year outlook for agricultural exports

Expect good times 32% Respondents expecting ‘good times’ for farm sector over next five years

Long-term farmland value index 166 June long-term farmland value expectations index, tying record high

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jul 02 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Jul 02	Volume milestone	Positive	+2.4%	Record June ADV and second-highest Q2 ADV across major asset classes.
Jun 30	Product launch	Positive	+1.0%	Planned launch of new Lean Beef Trim futures and options pending review.
Jun 30	Product launch	Positive	+1.0%	Announcement of Single Stock futures on more than 50 U.S. stocks.
Jun 17	Leadership change	Neutral	-3.5%	CEO Terry Duffy to step down and transition to Executive Chairman in 2027.
Jun 11	Product expansion	Positive	+1.8%	Expansion of 24/7 trading access for WTI Crude Oil and Gold products.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent history shows CME shares typically rising on volume and product-expansion news, with a notable downside reaction to the CEO transition announcement.

Regulatory & Risk Context

Short Interest: 1.45%

Short Interest

1.45% of float

0% 15% 30%+

low as of 2026-06-15 Days to cover: 1.25

Reported short interest is relatively low, suggesting limited short-squeeze potential and generally muted volatility pressure from short covering.

Key Terms

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1 terms

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"This month's survey included two questions on the use of AI and other data-driven tools"

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AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., July 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Producers continued to express concern about farm finances as the June Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a 6-point decline in farmer sentiment to 113. The Current Conditions Index fell to an 18-month low of 102, and the Future Expectations Index dropped 7 points. High input costs remained producers' top concern, with 47% identifying them as the biggest challenge facing their operation, followed by low crop and livestock prices at 23%. A related question revealed that 42% of respondents feel high input costs are limiting improvements in their financial position this year. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from June 15-19.

Additional survey results illustrated the financial challenges facing producers. Just 12% of respondents said their farms were better off financially than a year ago, while only 22% expected their operations to improve over the next 12 months. Reflecting that cautious outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index has continued its fall from the March 2026 survey to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.

When asked what was limiting improvement in their farm's financial situation, 42% of respondents cited high input costs, while low output prices, at 17%, ranked second among responses. Weather risk (14%), policy uncertainty (11%), labor and equipment concerns (9%), and debt or financial pressure (8%) rounded out the remaining responses.

"While high input costs remain the primary constraint on farm financial performance, producers are continuing to make decisions in a broader environment shaped by technology adoption, trade expectations and long-term land value outlook," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.

This month's survey included two questions on the use of AI and other data-driven tools in agriculture. When asked about potential benefits, 23% of respondents cited increased production as the primary advantage, 14% cited reduced labor needs, and 11% cited reduced risk or uncertainty. However, a majority of respondents (52%) said they did not see a meaningful benefit from these tools.

Respondents also expressed skepticism about the practical use of data-driven tools. Approximately 63% said AI-generated recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% said they would often be difficult to follow.

Producers expressed generally positive expectations for agricultural exports over the next five years and showed strong support for free trade. While 9% of respondents expected agricultural exports to decline, 43% expected exports to increase over the next five years. Eighty-five percent agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.

Beyond trade expectations, longer-term outlooks for the farm sector weakened compared with a year ago. The percentage of respondents expecting "good times" over the next five years fell to 32% in June, 17 percentage points lower than in the June 2025 survey. Expectations also continued to vary notably by sector, with 25% of respondents expecting good times for crop producers compared with 68% for livestock producers.

Short-term farmland value expectations declined in June, with the index falling from 130 in May to 124. In contrast, long-term expectations remained strong, rising to 166 and tying the record high. Respondents cited alternative investments, net farm income and inflation as the factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." After averaging 71% during the final six months of 2025, the percentage of producers reporting the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" was 52% in May and 53% in June.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

 

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SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the June 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer reveal about farmer sentiment for CME (NASDAQ:CME)?

Farmer sentiment weakened in June 2026, with the Ag Economy Barometer dropping 6 points to 113. According to CME Group, both the Current Conditions Index and Future Expectations Index declined, signaling increased concern about farm finances among surveyed producers.

Why are high input costs a major concern in the June 2026 CME farmer sentiment survey (CME)?

High input costs were the leading concern, cited by 47% of surveyed producers. According to CME Group, 42% of respondents also said elevated input costs are limiting improvements in their 2026 financial position, outweighing worries about low crop and livestock prices.

How did the Farm Capital Investment Index trend in the June 2026 Purdue/CME survey for CME investors?

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 40 in June 2026, continuing its decline since March. According to CME Group, this is the lowest reading since September 2024, reflecting producer reluctance to make major investments under current financial and cost conditions.

What did the June 2026 CME farmer survey say about AI and data-driven tools in agriculture?

Most respondents saw limited benefit from AI and data-driven tools, with 52% reporting no meaningful benefit. According to CME Group, 63% said AI-generated recommendations would sometimes be difficult to follow, while only smaller shares cited increased production, reduced labor, or lower risk as advantages.

What are producers’ expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years in the June 2026 CME survey?

Producers were generally optimistic on exports, with 43% expecting agricultural exports to increase over the next five years. According to CME Group, only 9% anticipated a decline, and 85% agreed or strongly agreed that free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.

How did farmland value expectations change in the June 2026 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer report?

Short-term farmland value expectations softened, with the index slipping from 130 in May to 124. According to CME Group, long-term expectations rose to 166, tying the record high, with respondents citing alternative investments, net farm income, and inflation as key drivers.