Farmers say current conditions on U.S. farms are weakening

Rhea-AI Summary

CME (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer) survey (Sept. 15-19, 2025) showed the overall barometer at 126 (up 1 point). The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122 while the Index of Future Expectations rose 5 points to 128.

Key financial gauges weakened: the Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 3 points to 88, and the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 8 points to 53. Short-term farmland expectations declined 6 points to 106, 18 points below May’s peak.

Policy and support expectations remain important: 83% expect a 2019-style MFP if trade lowers prices; 53% of farmers use cover crops, with increased acreage adoption reported.

Positive

• Index of Future Expectations +5 points to 128
• Overall Barometer steady at 126 (up 1 point)
• 83% of producers expect MFP-like government support

Negative

• Index of Current Conditions -7 points to 122
• Farm Financial Performance Index -3 points to 88
• Farm Capital Investment Index -8 points to 53
• Short-Term Farmland Expectations -6 points to 106 (18 pts below May)

Insights

Agricultural Economist

Purdue/CME barometer shows weaker current conditions but firmer future expectations; farm finances and investment appetite are cooling.

What happened: The Ag Economy Barometer edged to 126 while the Index of Current Conditions fell to 122 and the Index of Future Expectations rose to 128. The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 88, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 53, and the Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index declined to 106 from a May peak of 124.

The business mechanism is simple: record-high yields are pressuring crop prices, which reduces near-term income expectations and lowers willingness to invest. Simultaneously, a large share of producers ( 71%) believe policy is "headed in the right direction," and many expect a policy response similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program, with 83% saying such support is likely if prices fall.

Key dependencies and risks include sustained price pressure from high yields, the actual design and timing of any government support program, and evolving viewpoints on tariffs (support fell from 70% in spring to 51% now). Watch short-term credit conditions for farms and the pace of farmland value expectations over the next 12 months, as those directly affect liquidity and investment decisions.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Oct. 7, 2025/PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment held steady in September, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose just 1 point to a reading of 126. However, there was a shift in producers' perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 128. The survey was conducted following the U.S. Department of Agriculture's release of the September Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. These reflected farmers' concerns about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which were pressuring crop prices. At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers' belief that U.S. policy is "headed in the right direction" and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The barometer survey took place Sept. 15-19.

The September Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 3 points to a reading of 88, marking the third consecutive month farmers have lowered their expectations for 2025 compared with 2024. Consistent with this more cautious outlook, fewer producers said now is a good time to make major investments in their operations, pushing the Farm Capital Investment Index down 8 points to 53.

Producers' short-term outlook for farmland values weakened for the fourth month in a row, as the Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index fell 6 points to 106. The index now stands 18 points below its 2025 peak from May of 124. The shift was driven by fewer producers expecting farmland values to rise and more anticipating farmland values to remain about the same, with 58% of respondents saying they expect farmland values to hold steady over the next year, up from 54% in August.

Policy changes appear to continue to shape farmers' perspectives in September. A substantial majority (71%) of farmers in this month's survey reported that things in the U.S. are "headed in the right direction," similar to the July and August survey results. However, confidence in the long-run impact of tariffs has weakened. Just over half of respondents (51%) said they expect tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy, down from 63% of June's survey respondents and 70% of respondents in both the April and May surveys who said they expect the use of tariffs to have a long-term positive impact. At the same time, 30% now believe tariffs will weaken the agricultural economy, and 19% are uncertain — more than double the number of respondents who were uncertain in the spring.

Amidst growing concerns about tariffs, most farmers expect potential government support to help cushion the impact. In September, 83% of producers said a program similar to the 2019 MFP is likely if a trade war drives commodity prices lower, with 62% calling it "very likely" and another 21% saying it is "likely."

Each September since 2021, the Ag Economy Barometer survey has included several questions focused on cover crop usage by corn and soybean farmers, and just over half (53%) of farmers surveyed this month reported using cover crops on at least some of their acreage, a share that has ranged between 52% and 57% over the past five years. Among cover crop users, 40% said they adopted the practice within the last five years, while 9% have used cover crops for more than two decades. Survey trends also point to broader adoption across acreage: This year, 57% of cover crop users planted them on 26-50% of their acres, compared to only 25% in 2021 who reported planting cover crops on more than one-fourth of their acreage.

"High production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes on U.S. crop farms," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "A large majority of U.S. farmers expect government support to bolster farm incomes if crop prices remain weak." 

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Sources and Notes block:

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

Author: Morgan French

Image caption: Farmers say current conditions on U.S. farms are weakening. (Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)

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View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmers-say-current-conditions-on-us-farms-are-weakening-302575568.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the Sept. 2025 Purdue/CME Barometer report for CME (ag economy)?

The overall barometer read 126 in Sept. 2025, a 1-point increase from August.

How did current farm conditions change in the Sept. 2025 CME survey?

The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, signaling weaker current conditions.

What does the Sept. 2025 survey say about farmers' future expectations (CME)?

The Index of Future Expectations rose 5 points to 128, indicating increased optimism.

Are farmers expecting government support according to the Sept. 2025 CME survey?

Yes—83% of respondents said an MFP-like program is likely if trade drives prices lower.

How did farmland value expectations move in Sept. 2025 for CME respondents?

Short-term farmland expectations dropped 6 points to 106, 18 points below the May peak.

What cover crop adoption metrics did the Sept. 2025 CME survey report?

53% of farmers use cover crops; 57% of users plant them on 26–50% of acres.