Ecopetrol Group to Invest Between COP 22 and 27 Trillion in 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) announced a COP 22–27 trillion 2026 Annual Investment Plan approved by its board, maintaining 2025 investment levels under capital discipline.

Key allocations: ~COP 17.2 trillion (≈70%) to hydrocarbons to target 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, ~COP 1.7 trillion to refining for a 410–420 kbpd combined throughput, COP 1.5 trillion to transport, and ~COP 7.1 trillion (≈30%) to energy transition, transmission and corporate investments.

Assumptions include Brent US$60/bbl, exchange rate ≈COP 4,050/US$, an EBITDA margin near 40%, estimated transfers to the nation of ≈COP 28 trillion, and a COP 5.7 trillion Profitability and Efficiency Program. ISA investment guidance is COP 6.2–6.8 trillion and ~750 MW of additional clean capacity is expected.

Positive

• Planned investment of COP 22–27 trillion for 2026
• Production target 730–740 thousand boe/day
• Refinery throughput 410–420 thousand barrels per day
• Profitability program sized at COP 5.7 trillion to boost EBITDA and working capital
• ISA investment guidance COP 6.2–6.8 trillion (≈26% of group budget)
• Clean capacity ~750 MW expected from projects in operation, construction, development

Negative

• Transfers to the nation estimated at ≈COP 28 trillion (large cash outflow)
• Oil price assumption of US$60/bbl could pressure revenues if prices fall below forecast
• Energy transition allocation relatively small at ≈COP 0.9 trillion (3% of plan)

Insights

Integrated Energy Investment Strategist

Ecopetrol sets a steady 2026 capex plan of COP 22–27 trillion, prioritizing production, refineries, transmission and transition.

Ecopetrol allocates roughly COP 17.2 trillion (~70%) to sustain organic output of 730–740 thousand boe/d, refinery throughput of 410–420 kbpd, and transport volumes near 1,110–1,120 kbpd. The plan rings conservative assumptions: Brent at US$60/bbl and an exchange rate around COP 4,050, and targets an EBITDA margin near 40% while transferring ~COP 28 trillion to the Nation.

The group earmarks ~COP 7.1 trillion for Energy Transition and transmission, including ISA capex of COP 6.2–6.8 trillion, and COP 0.9 trillion for renewables and efficiency (~750 MW incremental clean capacity). A COP 5.7 trillion Profitability and Efficiency Program underpins cost and working-capital relief, with a target lifting cost below US$12/boe.

Key dependencies and risks include realized oil prices, exchange-rate movements, and execution of the portfolio rotation and cost program to protect liquidity. The plan names specific operational levers—drilling 380–430 development wells and 8–10 exploratory wells, plus refining reliability projects—which create measurable milestones for performance assessment.

Watch execution on drilling counts and the announced COP 5.7 trillion efficiency savings over the next 12 months, ISA project spend and delivery of ~750 MW clean capacity; these items will show whether the Plan preserves margins and cash under the 2026 assumptions.

Bogota D.C, Nov. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) ("Ecopetrol" and together with its subsidiaries, the "Ecopetrol Group") announces that its board of directors has approved the Ecopetrol Group's Annual Investment Plan for 2026 (the "2026 Annual Investment Plan"), with an amount ranging between COP 22 and 27 trillion¹. This plan maintains investment levels compared to the projected 2025 year-end figures, under capital discipline criteria for each business line, and includes the following guidelines:

• Approximately COP 17.2 trillion, about 70% of the budget, is expected to be allocated to profitably produce between 730 and 740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, maintain an average refinery throughput of 410 to 420 thousand barrels per day, and transport between 1,110 and 1,120 thousand barrels per day.
• Around COP 7.1 trillion, approximately 30% of the budget, is expected to be invested in Energy Transition and Power Transmission projects, as well as roads and other corporate investments.
• The 2026 Annual Investment Plan considers a challenging environment, with an estimated Brent price of US$60 per barrel and an average annual exchange rate close to COP 4,050. Accordingly, Ecopetrol Group has defined a strategy to safeguard profitability and liquidity through cost reductions, enabling an approximate EBITDA margin of 40%, in line with 2025 levels. Additionally, transfers to the Nation are estimated at around COP 28 trillion.
• The Profitability and Efficiency Program is expected to contribute approximately COP 5.7 trillion, positively impacting EBITDA, investments, and working capital. The program is also expected to support performance in total refining costs, transported barrel costs, and maintain lifting costs below US$12 per barrel.
• About COP 1.7 trillion is expected to be allocated to advance the goals of the sustainability strategy (SosTECnibility), mainly in climate change, sustainable territories, materials and waste, and occupational health.
• To safeguard cash and maintain healthy debt and profitability metrics, the Ecopetrol Group expects to implement a portfolio rotation program.

Highlights by Business Line:

Hydrocarbons Line

Investments in exploration and production is expected to amount to COP 14 trillion (89% for crude oil and 11% for gas), focused on achieving organic production levels of 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (80% crude, 15% gas, 5% white products) through recovery technologies to optimize resources and sustain production. Crude oil output in Colombia is expected to increase, offsetting natural gas field declines.

The Ecopetrol Group plans to drill between 380 and 430 development wells, 95% in Colombia and 5% in the U.S. Additionally, 8 to 10 exploratory wells are planned in Colombia, mainly offshore, Meta, and Putumayo. Gas investments are estimated at COP 1.5 trillion, primarily in the Llanos Foothills and offshore areas to develop Caribbean gas and contribute around 105–110 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Transport investments are expected to total about COP 1.5 trillion (6% of the budget), mainly for integrity and reliability projects by Cenit, Ocensa, ODC, and ODL. Transported volumes are expected to range between 1,110 and 1,120 thousand barrels per day, aligned with national production and refined product demand.

Refining investments are expected to be close to COP 1.7 trillion (7% of the budget), focused on ensuring reliability, availability, and sustainability at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries, reducing product imports, and improving fuel quality (LBCC²). Combined refinery throughput is expected between 410 and 420 thousand barrels per day.

Transmission and Roads Line

Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. (ISA), an Ecopetrol subsidiary, is expected to invest between COP 6.2 and 6.8 trillion in 2026, about 26% of the Ecopetrol Group's annual budget, with roughly 80% allocated to the electric transmission business.

Energy Transition Line

To advance energy transition, around COP 0.9 trillion (3% of the plan) are expected to be invested in non-conventional renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, among others. Approximately 750 MW of additional clean energy generation capacity is expected from projects in operation, construction, and development.

Finally, the Ecopetrol Group expects to allocate about COP 0.2 trillion (1% of the plan) to corporate areas and operational support.

In summary, the 2026 Annual Investment Plan presented by Ecopetrol Group includes investments across all business lines and operational efficiencies to sustain production levels, safeguard cash, and maintain long-term debt and profitability metrics, even under challenging market conditions.

Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and one of the main integrated energy companies in the American continent, with more than 19,000 employees. In Colombia, it is responsible for more than 60% of the hydrocarbon production of most transportation, logistics, and hydrocarbon refining systems, and it holds leading positions in the petrochemicals and gas distribution segments. With the acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares, the company participates in energy transmission, the management of real-time systems (XM), and the Barranquilla - Cartagena coastal highway concession. At the international level, Ecopetrol has a stake in strategic basins in the American continent, with Drilling and Exploration operations in the United States (Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and, through ISA and its subsidiaries, Ecopetrol holds leading positions in the power transmission business in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, road concessions in Chile, and the telecommunications sector.

This release contains statements that may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this release or in future filings or press releases, or orally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, including in respect of the Company's prospects for growth and its ongoing access to capital to fund the Company's business plan, among others. Consequently, changes in the following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements: market prices of oil & gas, our exploration, and production activities, market conditions, applicable regulations, the exchange rate, the Company's competitiveness and the performance of Colombia's economy and industry, to mention a few. We do not intend and do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. 

For more information, please contact:

Head of Capital Markets
Carolina Tovar Aragón
Email: investors@ecopetrol.com.co 

Head of Corporate Communications (Colombia)
Marcela Ulloa
Email: marcela.ulloa@ecopetrol.com.co 

¹ Exchange rate: 4,050 USDCOP
² Fuel Quality Baseline (Línea base de Calidad de Combustibles)

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SOURCE Ecopetrol S.A.

FAQ

How much will Ecopetrol (EC) invest in 2026 under the approved plan?

Ecopetrol plans to invest between COP 22 and 27 trillion in 2026.

What production levels does Ecopetrol (EC) target for 2026?

The group targets 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026.

How much of Ecopetrol's 2026 budget is allocated to energy transition and ISA transmission?

About COP 7.1 trillion (≈30%) is for energy transition, transmission, roads and corporate; ISA plans COP 6.2–6.8 trillion.

What price and FX assumptions underlie Ecopetrol's 2026 plan?

The plan assumes a Brent price of US$60/bbl and an average exchange rate near COP 4,050/US$.

How does the 2026 plan affect refining and imports for Ecopetrol (EC)?

Refining investments (~COP 1.7 trillion) target reliability and an average combined throughput of 410–420 kbpd to reduce product imports.

What cost and efficiency measures are included in Ecopetrol's 2026 plan?

A COP 5.7 trillion Profitability and Efficiency Program aims to support EBITDA, investments and working capital and keep lifting costs below US$12/boe.