Ecopetrol Group to Invest Between COP 22 and 27 Trillion in 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) announced a COP 22–27 trillion 2026 Annual Investment Plan approved by its board, maintaining 2025 investment levels under capital discipline.

Key allocations: ~COP 17.2 trillion (≈70%) to hydrocarbons to target 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, ~COP 1.7 trillion to refining for a 410–420 kbpd combined throughput, COP 1.5 trillion to transport, and ~COP 7.1 trillion (≈30%) to energy transition, transmission and corporate investments.

Assumptions include Brent US$60/bbl, exchange rate ≈COP 4,050/US$, an EBITDA margin near 40%, estimated transfers to the nation of ≈COP 28 trillion, and a COP 5.7 trillion Profitability and Efficiency Program. ISA investment guidance is COP 6.2–6.8 trillion and ~750 MW of additional clean capacity is expected.

Positive

• Planned investment of COP 22–27 trillion for 2026
• Production target 730–740 thousand boe/day
• Refinery throughput 410–420 thousand barrels per day
• Profitability program sized at COP 5.7 trillion to boost EBITDA and working capital
• ISA investment guidance COP 6.2–6.8 trillion (≈26% of group budget)
• Clean capacity ~750 MW expected from projects in operation, construction, development

Negative

• Transfers to the nation estimated at ≈COP 28 trillion (large cash outflow)
• Oil price assumption of US$60/bbl could pressure revenues if prices fall below forecast
• Energy transition allocation relatively small at ≈COP 0.9 trillion (3% of plan)

News Market Reaction

-0.51%

1 alert

-0.51% News Effect

On the day this news was published, EC declined 0.51%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

2026 investment plan: COP 22–27 trillion Hydrocarbons capex: COP 17.2 trillion Target production: 730–740 thousand boe/d +5 more

8 metrics

2026 investment plan COP 22–27 trillion Board-approved Ecopetrol Group Annual Investment Plan 2026

Hydrocarbons capex COP 17.2 trillion Approx. 70% of 2026 budget for hydrocarbons

Target production 730–740 thousand boe/d Planned 2026 hydrocarbons production range

Refining throughput 410–420 thousand bpd Expected combined refinery throughput in 2026

Energy transition & transmission COP 7.1 trillion Approx. 30% of 2026 budget for transition, transmission, corporate

Assumed Brent price US$60 per barrel Planning assumption for 2026 investment plan

EBITDA margin target 40% Approximate 2026 EBITDA margin, in line with 2025

Profitability & Efficiency Program COP 5.7 trillion Expected contribution to EBITDA, investments and working capital

Market Reality Check

Price: $11.73 Vol: Volume 1,781,226 is 0.76x...

normal vol

$11.73 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,781,226 is 0.76x the 20-day average of 2,346,613, indicating muted trading activity pre-announcement. normal

Technical Price at 9.81 is trading above the 200-day MA of 9.19, with shares still 11.18% below the 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

EC was down 1.9% while key integrated peers showed mixed, smaller moves (e.g., C...

EC was down 1.9% while key integrated peers showed mixed, smaller moves (e.g., CVE -0.84%, IMO +1.06%, PBR -0.41%), suggesting a more company-specific reaction to Ecopetrol’s investment plan rather than a broad sector swing.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Nov 28 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Nov 28	Renewables acquisition	Positive	+1.3%	Negotiation to acquire up to 88.2 MWp of Colombian solar projects.
Nov 28	Board changes	Neutral	-0.5%	Election of new chair and vice chair, and an independent director resignation.
Nov 28	Capex plan update	Positive	-0.5%	Board-approved COP 22–27T 2026 plan balancing hydrocarbons and transition.
Nov 18	Management appointment	Neutral	-1.6%	Appointment of an Alternate Legal and Commercial Representative.
Nov 13	Q3 2025 earnings	Positive	+3.8%	Strong EBITDA and margins despite lower Brent and sales volumes.

Pattern Detected

Recent news-driven moves have mostly aligned with the tone of announcements, with only the large 2026 capex plan coinciding with a mild negative reaction.

Recent Company History

Over the last month, Ecopetrol has reported several board changes, a 3Q 2025 earnings release, a solar portfolio acquisition negotiation, and the COP 22–27 trillion 2026 investment plan. Earnings on Nov 13 showed solid profitability, supporting a positive price move. Subsequent management updates around Nov 18 and Nov 28 drew modest declines. The renewables acquisition news on Nov 28 coincided with gains, while the sizeable 2026 capex guidance aligned with a small pullback, indicating some sensitivity to large spending plans.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement outlines a sizable COP 22–27 trillion 2026 investment plan, with about COP 17.2 tr...

Analysis

This announcement outlines a sizable COP 22–27 trillion 2026 investment plan, with about COP 17.2 trillion toward hydrocarbons and COP 7.1 trillion toward energy transition, transmission, and corporate projects. Ecopetrol is targeting an EBITDA margin around 40%, transfers of roughly COP 28 trillion to the nation, and support from a COP 5.7 trillion efficiency program. Investors may track delivery on production, refining throughput, cost targets, and energy transition milestones against these budgets.

Key Terms

EBITDA, barrels of oil equivalent per day, lifting costs, non-conventional renewable energy

4 terms

EBITDA financial

"enabling an approximate EBITDA margin of 40%, in line with 2025 levels."

EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. It measures a company's profitability by focusing on the money it makes from its core operations, ignoring expenses like taxes and accounting adjustments. Investors use EBITDA to compare how well different companies are performing financially, as it provides a clearer picture of operational success without the influence of financial structure or accounting choices.

barrels of oil equivalent per day technical

"produce between 730 and 740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, maintain"

Barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) is a measurement that combines different types of energy production—such as oil, natural gas, and other fuels—into a single number to show how much energy is being produced or consumed daily. It helps investors understand the total energy output or intake of a company or region in a consistent way, making it easier to compare energy sources and gauge overall performance or capacity.

lifting costs financial

"and maintain lifting costs below US$12 per barrel.About COP 1.7 trillion"

Lifting costs are the day‑to‑day expenses required to extract and bring a natural resource from below ground to the surface and into the sales pipeline, typically expressed per unit produced (for example, per barrel of oil). For investors, they show how much of the sales price is eaten up by production itself—similar to knowing the cost of harvesting and hauling crops before selling them—so lower lifting costs usually mean higher margins and greater resilience to price drops.

non-conventional renewable energy technical

"around COP 0.9 trillion (3% of the plan) are expected to be invested in non-conventional renewable energy and energy"

Energy produced from renewable sources that are not the large, widely used technologies like utility-scale solar, onshore wind or big hydropower; examples include geothermal, tidal and wave power, advanced biomass, small-scale distributed systems and emerging fuels or conversion processes. Investors care because these alternatives can offer new revenue streams, different risk and reward profiles, and exposure to niche policy incentives or technology breakthroughs—like adding new ingredients to a familiar recipe that can change cost, reliability and growth potential.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Bogota D.C, Nov. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) ("Ecopetrol" and together with its subsidiaries, the "Ecopetrol Group") announces that its board of directors has approved the Ecopetrol Group's Annual Investment Plan for 2026 (the "2026 Annual Investment Plan"), with an amount ranging between COP 22 and 27 trillion¹. This plan maintains investment levels compared to the projected 2025 year-end figures, under capital discipline criteria for each business line, and includes the following guidelines:

• Approximately COP 17.2 trillion, about 70% of the budget, is expected to be allocated to profitably produce between 730 and 740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, maintain an average refinery throughput of 410 to 420 thousand barrels per day, and transport between 1,110 and 1,120 thousand barrels per day.
• Around COP 7.1 trillion, approximately 30% of the budget, is expected to be invested in Energy Transition and Power Transmission projects, as well as roads and other corporate investments.
• The 2026 Annual Investment Plan considers a challenging environment, with an estimated Brent price of US$60 per barrel and an average annual exchange rate close to COP 4,050. Accordingly, Ecopetrol Group has defined a strategy to safeguard profitability and liquidity through cost reductions, enabling an approximate EBITDA margin of 40%, in line with 2025 levels. Additionally, transfers to the Nation are estimated at around COP 28 trillion.
• The Profitability and Efficiency Program is expected to contribute approximately COP 5.7 trillion, positively impacting EBITDA, investments, and working capital. The program is also expected to support performance in total refining costs, transported barrel costs, and maintain lifting costs below US$12 per barrel.
• About COP 1.7 trillion is expected to be allocated to advance the goals of the sustainability strategy (SosTECnibility), mainly in climate change, sustainable territories, materials and waste, and occupational health.
• To safeguard cash and maintain healthy debt and profitability metrics, the Ecopetrol Group expects to implement a portfolio rotation program.

Highlights by Business Line:

Hydrocarbons Line

Investments in exploration and production is expected to amount to COP 14 trillion (89% for crude oil and 11% for gas), focused on achieving organic production levels of 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (80% crude, 15% gas, 5% white products) through recovery technologies to optimize resources and sustain production. Crude oil output in Colombia is expected to increase, offsetting natural gas field declines.

The Ecopetrol Group plans to drill between 380 and 430 development wells, 95% in Colombia and 5% in the U.S. Additionally, 8 to 10 exploratory wells are planned in Colombia, mainly offshore, Meta, and Putumayo. Gas investments are estimated at COP 1.5 trillion, primarily in the Llanos Foothills and offshore areas to develop Caribbean gas and contribute around 105–110 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Transport investments are expected to total about COP 1.5 trillion (6% of the budget), mainly for integrity and reliability projects by Cenit, Ocensa, ODC, and ODL. Transported volumes are expected to range between 1,110 and 1,120 thousand barrels per day, aligned with national production and refined product demand.

Refining investments are expected to be close to COP 1.7 trillion (7% of the budget), focused on ensuring reliability, availability, and sustainability at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries, reducing product imports, and improving fuel quality (LBCC²). Combined refinery throughput is expected between 410 and 420 thousand barrels per day.

Transmission and Roads Line

Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. (ISA), an Ecopetrol subsidiary, is expected to invest between COP 6.2 and 6.8 trillion in 2026, about 26% of the Ecopetrol Group's annual budget, with roughly 80% allocated to the electric transmission business.

Energy Transition Line

To advance energy transition, around COP 0.9 trillion (3% of the plan) are expected to be invested in non-conventional renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, among others. Approximately 750 MW of additional clean energy generation capacity is expected from projects in operation, construction, and development.

Finally, the Ecopetrol Group expects to allocate about COP 0.2 trillion (1% of the plan) to corporate areas and operational support.

In summary, the 2026 Annual Investment Plan presented by Ecopetrol Group includes investments across all business lines and operational efficiencies to sustain production levels, safeguard cash, and maintain long-term debt and profitability metrics, even under challenging market conditions.

Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and one of the main integrated energy companies in the American continent, with more than 19,000 employees. In Colombia, it is responsible for more than 60% of the hydrocarbon production of most transportation, logistics, and hydrocarbon refining systems, and it holds leading positions in the petrochemicals and gas distribution segments. With the acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares, the company participates in energy transmission, the management of real-time systems (XM), and the Barranquilla - Cartagena coastal highway concession. At the international level, Ecopetrol has a stake in strategic basins in the American continent, with Drilling and Exploration operations in the United States (Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and, through ISA and its subsidiaries, Ecopetrol holds leading positions in the power transmission business in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, road concessions in Chile, and the telecommunications sector.

This release contains statements that may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this release or in future filings or press releases, or orally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, including in respect of the Company's prospects for growth and its ongoing access to capital to fund the Company's business plan, among others. Consequently, changes in the following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements: market prices of oil & gas, our exploration, and production activities, market conditions, applicable regulations, the exchange rate, the Company's competitiveness and the performance of Colombia's economy and industry, to mention a few. We do not intend and do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. 

For more information, please contact:

Head of Capital Markets
Carolina Tovar Aragón
Email: investors@ecopetrol.com.co 

Head of Corporate Communications (Colombia)
Marcela Ulloa
Email: marcela.ulloa@ecopetrol.com.co 

¹ Exchange rate: 4,050 USDCOP
² Fuel Quality Baseline (Línea base de Calidad de Combustibles)

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SOURCE Ecopetrol S.A.

FAQ

How much will Ecopetrol (EC) invest in 2026 under the approved plan?

Ecopetrol plans to invest between COP 22 and 27 trillion in 2026.

What production levels does Ecopetrol (EC) target for 2026?

The group targets 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026.

How much of Ecopetrol's 2026 budget is allocated to energy transition and ISA transmission?

About COP 7.1 trillion (≈30%) is for energy transition, transmission, roads and corporate; ISA plans COP 6.2–6.8 trillion.

What price and FX assumptions underlie Ecopetrol's 2026 plan?

The plan assumes a Brent price of US$60/bbl and an average exchange rate near COP 4,050/US$.

How does the 2026 plan affect refining and imports for Ecopetrol (EC)?

Refining investments (~COP 1.7 trillion) target reliability and an average combined throughput of 410–420 kbpd to reduce product imports.

What cost and efficiency measures are included in Ecopetrol's 2026 plan?

A COP 5.7 trillion Profitability and Efficiency Program aims to support EBITDA, investments and working capital and keep lifting costs below US$12/boe.