Standard & Poor's Global Ratings (S&P) Affirms Ecopetrol's Stand‑Alone Credit Profile and Revises Its Global Credit Rating

Rhea-AI Summary

Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) said S&P Global Ratings downgraded its long‑term issuer credit rating to BB- from BB on April 8, 2026, while affirming its Stand‑Alone Credit Profile (SACP) at bb+ and assigning a stable outlook.

S&P said the downgrade tracks Colombia's sovereign action, cited the government's 88.49% ownership, noted a COP11.7 trillion 2025 dividend, a COP1.6 trillion FEPC transfer, and highlighted governance and cash‑flow constraints affecting financial flexibility.

Positive

• Stand‑Alone Credit Profile affirmed at bb+
• Outlook assigned as Stable, matching sovereign
• High probability of government support; 88.49% ownership
• Acquired 51.4% of ISA, expanding transmission and concessions
• Ongoing international operations in key basins (Permian, Gulf of Mexico)
• Allocated ~3.0% of 2026 investments to energy transition

Negative

• Long‑term issuer rating downgraded to BB‑ from BB
• Ratings remain capped by Colombia sovereign credit risk
• Dividend distribution of ~COP11.7 trillion in 2025 reduced cash flexibility
• Transfer of ~COP1.6 trillion from FEPC suggests fiscal strain
• Discretionary cash flow to debt (DCF) at -5.0%, below 2.5% expectation
• Management and governance assessment: moderately negative

News Market Reaction – EC

-1.42%

-1.42% Session close to close

In the Apr 9 session, EC declined 1.42%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

This announcement details S&P’s downgrade of Ecopetrol’s global rating to BB- while affirming a stro...

Analysis

This announcement details S&P’s downgrade of Ecopetrol’s global rating to BB- while affirming a stronger bb+ stand‑alone profile, emphasizing the cap from Colombia’s sovereign risk. The report highlights heavy dividend dependence, including about COP 11.7 trillion in 2025 and payouts equal to 40%–60% of net income, driving a -5.0% free cash flow to debt ratio. Investors may watch fiscal policy in Colombia, Ecopetrol’s leverage metrics, FEPC payments of roughly COP 1.6 trillion, and energy-transition investments at 3.0% of 2026 capex.

Key Figures

Global credit rating: BB- (from BB) Stand-alone credit profile: bb+ Government ownership: 88.49% +5 more

8 metrics

Global credit rating BB- (from BB) S&P issuer credit and issue-level ratings

Stand-alone credit profile bb+ S&P SACP assessment for Ecopetrol

Government ownership 88.49% Colombian government stake in Ecopetrol

2025 dividends COP 11.7 trillion Dividend distribution to shareholders in 2025

FEPC payment COP 1.6 trillion Fuel Price Stabilization Fund payment effective Apr 1, 2026

Free cash flow to debt -5.0% DCF ratio impacted by dividend payments

Dividend payout share 40%–60% of net income Typical proportion of net income paid as dividends

Energy transition capex 3.0% of expected 2026 investments Allocated to Colombia’s energy transition

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Apr 07 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Apr 07	Management change update	Neutral	-1.4%	President granted unpaid leave with acting president appointed to ensure continuity.
Apr 02	Debt management loan	Positive	-1.4%	Authorization for up to USD 1.25B loan to refinance existing debt facilities.
Apr 02	FEPC payment agreement	Positive	+4.5%	Agreement on Q1 2025 FEPC balance payment schedule with the Nation.
Mar 30	Shareholder meeting decisions	Positive	+0.1%	Approval of 2025 reports, dividends, large reserve, and merger authorization.
Mar 25	Board statement	Neutral	+2.3%	Board communication with limited disclosed detail but modest positive price move.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent Ecopetrol headlines have produced mixed reactions: financing and governance news sometimes met with modest declines, while FEPC resolution and shareholder decisions saw mild to strong gains.

Recent Company History

Over the last few weeks, Ecopetrol reported several governance and balance-sheet developments. On Mar 27, shareholders approved 2025 financials, a COP $121 dividend, and a COP $20.7 trillion reserve, with minimal price impact. Early April brought FEPC settlement news with a COP 1.6 trillion payment structure, which coincided with a 4.49% gain. Debt-management authorization for up to USD 1.25 billion and management changes were followed by small declines. Against this backdrop, the S&P downgrade ties Ecopetrol more tightly to Colombia’s sovereign risk.

Key Terms

issuer credit rating, stand-alone credit profile, government-related entities, fuel price stabilization fund, +4 more

8 terms

issuer credit rating financial

"we lowered our issuer credit and issue-level ratings on Ecopetrol to 'BB-'"

An issuer credit rating is an independent grade assigned to a company or government that summarizes how likely it is to meet its debt obligations, like a credit score or report card for a borrower. Investors use it to judge risk: a higher rating means lower chance of default and usually lower borrowing costs, while a lower rating signals greater risk and can make bonds more expensive or volatile, affecting returns and portfolio decisions.

stand-alone credit profile financial

"S&P affirmed Ecopetrol's Stand-Alone Credit Profile (SACP) at bb+."

A stand-alone credit profile is an assessment of an entity’s intrinsic ability to meet its debt obligations without assuming any external support, such as guarantees, parent-company backing, or government aid. Investors use it to gauge the company’s true default risk—similar to judging someone’s ability to pay bills based only on their own income and savings—which helps set bond yields, credit spreads, and investment decisions.

government-related entities regulatory

"Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015"

Organizations that are owned by, funded by, or closely tied to a national, regional, or local government, such as state-owned companies, government agencies, or entities created to carry out public policy. Investors care because these entities often have different risk and return profiles than private firms: they may receive government support or contracts that steady revenue, face political influence that affects decisions, or carry implicit guarantees that change credit and valuation considerations—think of them as businesses operating with a government safety net or directions.

fuel price stabilization fund financial

"from the first-quarter 2025 account of Colombia's Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC)"

A fuel price stabilization fund is a government-managed pool of money used to smooth sudden swings in fuel prices by subsidizing costs when prices spike or collecting extra when prices fall, acting like a shock absorber for consumers and the economy. Investors care because it can change company fuel costs, consumer spending, inflation and government budgets — all of which affect corporate profits, sector margins and sovereign credit risk.

treasury securities financial

"funded by Treasury bonds (TES) issued by the Republic of Colombia"

Treasury securities are IOUs issued by a national government to borrow money for a set time, including short-term bills, medium-term notes, and long-term bonds. They matter to investors because they are widely viewed as very safe, trade easily, and set the baseline for interest rates across the economy — like a benchmark price that helps investors decide how much risk and return to seek elsewhere. Changes in their interest rates affect loan costs, stock values, and portfolio choices.

View in glossary

debt-to-ebitda financial

"if its adjusted net debt to EBITDA to consistently rise close to 3.0x."

Debt-to-EBITDA is a leverage ratio that compares a company’s total debt to its operating cash-earning power, where EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — a rough measure of cash generated by the business. Investors use it to judge how many years of current operating cash flow would be needed to pay off debt; a higher number signals greater financial strain and risk, like needing more paychecks to clear a mortgage.

discretionary cash flow financial

"leading to discretionary cash flow to debt at or above 15%"

Discretionary cash flow is the amount of cash a company generates after covering its operating costs and mandatory capital needs, representing money management can choose how to use. Think of it as a household’s leftover pocket money after paying rent and groceries — investors watch it because it shows a firm’s ability to pay dividends, buy back shares, invest in growth, or reduce debt without needing outside financing.

senior unsecured financial

"Ecopetrol S. A. Senior Unsecured | BB- | BB"

Senior unsecured is a type of loan or bond that has priority over other unsecured obligations for repayment if a company runs into financial trouble, but it is not backed by specific assets as collateral. Think of it as being near the front of a line to get paid, but without a pledged item to seize if the borrower defaults; that higher repayment priority typically makes it less risky than subordinated debt but more risky than secured debt, which influences the interest rate investors demand.

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BOGOTA, Columbia, April 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC) ("Ecopetrol") informs that S&P Global Ratings, in its report dated April 8, 2026, revised Ecopetrol's global credit rating from BB to BB-, with a stable outlook, in line with the adjustment made to the sovereign credit rating of the Republic of Colombia on the same date.

S&P affirmed Ecopetrol's Stand-Alone Credit Profile (SACP) at bb+.

In its report, S&P stated that Ecopetrol's global credit rating continues to be constrained by Colombia's sovereign rating, considering the Ecopetrol's relevance to the country's fiscal revenue generation, its status as a government‑related entity, and its strategic role in the national energy sector. Accordingly, the stable outlook assigned to Ecopetrol directly reflects the outlook of the sovereign rating. 

The full report issued by S&P Global Ratings may be consulted below:

Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia and one of the main integrated energy companies in the American continent, with more than 19,000 employees. In Colombia, it is responsible for more than 60% of the hydrocarbon production of most transportation, logistics, and hydrocarbon refining systems, and it holds leading positions in the petrochemicals and gas distribution segments. With the acquisition of 51.4% of ISA's shares, the company participates in energy transmission, the management of real-time systems (XM), and the Barranquilla - Cartagena coastal highway concession. At the international level, Ecopetrol has a stake in strategic basins in the American continent, with Drilling and Exploration operations in the United States (Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and, through ISA and its subsidiaries, Ecopetrol holds leading positions in the power transmission business in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, road concessions in Chile, and the telecommunications sector.

This release contains statements that may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this release or in future filings or press releases, or orally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, including in respect of the Company's prospects for growth and its ongoing access to capital to fund the Company's business plan, among others. Consequently, changes in the following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements: market prices of oil & gas, our exploration, and production activities, market conditions, applicable regulations, the exchange rate, the Company's competitiveness and the performance of Colombia's economy and industry, to mention a few. We do not intend and do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

For more information, please contact:

Investor Relations Office
Email: investors@ecopetrol.com.co

Head of Corporate Communications (Colombia)
Marcela Ulloa
Email: marcela.ulloa@ecopetrol.com.co 

Ecopetrol S.A. Downgraded To 'BB-' From 'BB' Following Similar Action On The Sovereign; Outlook Stable

Rating Action Overview

• On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Colombia to 'BB-' from 'BB' and long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to BB' from 'BB+' because of continued underperformance in its fiscal consolidation amid upcoming election period.
• Our ratings on Ecopetrol S.A. are capped by the sovereign rating, reflecting its significant contribution to Colombia's revenues via dividend distributions and government royalties, the government's ownership stake, and its key role in the country's energy transition.  
• As a result, on April 8, 2026, we lowered our issuer credit and issue-level ratings on Ecopetrol to 'BB-' from 'BB'.
• The revised outlook to stable from negative on Ecopetrol reflects that on Colombia. 

Rating Action Rationale 

Colombia's creditworthiness weakened due to fiscal risks and economic vulnerabilities.  Our sovereign credit ratings on Colombia are constrained by its limited fiscal flexibility, high and rising debt burden, weak external position characterized by volatile terms of trade, and moderate GDP per capita, all exacerbated by increasingly unpredictable fiscal policy. Unpredictable government policies, including broken fiscal rules and budget shortfalls, are causing deficits and inflation. 

While Colombia has a stable political system, ongoing security issues and recent election results create uncertainty about future economic improvements. The new government faces pressure to spend more while struggling to raise revenue, and the country remains vulnerable to global economic changes and oil price fluctuations. (See Colombia Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BB-' From 'BB' Due To Fiscal Imbalances; Outlook Stable, April 8, 2026. 

Our ratings on Ecopetrol remain capped by the credit risk of the sovereign and continue to move in line with our ratings on Colombia. We assess the probability of timely and sufficient government support to Ecopetrol under stress as very high, based on the government's 88.49% ownership stake and Ecopetrol's critical role as Colombia's leading oil and gas producer. Ecopetrol remains a substantial revenue contributor to Colombia, as demonstrated by the approximately Colombian peso (COP)11.7 trillion dividend distribution in 2025. The company also continues to invest about 3.0% of expected investments for 2026 in Colombia's energy transition, supporting the development of cleaner energy sources and increased natural gas availability.

Recent government actions could limit Ecopetrol's future financial performance should they become permanent. Specifically, the agreement effective April 1, 2026, for Ecopetrol (and its Cartagena refinery) to receive approximately COP1.6 trillion from the first-quarter 2025 account of Colombia's Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC)--funded by Treasury bonds (TES) issued by the Republic of Colombia--suggests weaker fiscal consolidation and revenue expectations for the current administration. This suggests less flexibility for Ecopetrol to reduce dividends if needed.

Dividend payments to the government resulted in free cash flow to debt (DCF) ratios of -5.0%, significantly below our 2.5% expectation. This highlights the government's significant influence over Ecopetrol's cash flow, as dividends consistently represent 40%-60% of net income. The government's continued tendency to maximize dividend payouts, coupled with its ongoing fiscal challenges, raises the possibility of constraints on Ecopetrol's future financial flexibility.

Outlook

The stable outlook on Ecopetrol remains tied to that of Colombia, reflecting the company's continued importance to the Colombian economy and its strong relationship with the government. As a result, we expect our ratings on Ecopetrol to move in line with those on the sovereign.

Downside scenario

We could take a negative rating action on Ecopetrol in the next 12 months if we take a similar action on Colombia.

On the other hand, we could revise its stand-alone credit profile (SACP) down in the next 12 months if:

• The company's financial performance weakens such that we expect its adjusted net debt to EBITDA to consistently rise close to 3.0x. This could stem from lower prices, weaker production sales, or increased debt beyond our expectations;
• We perceive weaker business for Ecopetrol if it posts declines in production or replacement ratios below 100%; or 
• Ecopetrol prioritizes cash outflows as dividends rather than for maintenance and growth capital expenditures (capex).

Upside scenario

We could take a positive rating action on Ecopetrol if we were to take a similar action on the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Colombia.

Although unlikely within the next 12 months, we could revise up the SACP to 'bbb-' if the company's operating and financial performance is well above our expectations. This scenario could result if:

• Ecopetrol has higher-than-expected production stemming from investments in Colombia or international fields;
• The company has debt-to-EBITDA ratios below 2.0x while improving profitability margins despite price volatility;
• Ecopetrol improves cash flows after capex and dividends, leading to discretionary cash flow to debt at or above 15%; or
• There are more independent board members and the company improves board member turnover.

Company Description

Ecopetrol is a vertically integrated oil and gas company based in Bogota, Colombia. The company also engages in power and infrastructure-related activities. It has a presence in Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Singapore, as well as in Chile, Peru, and Bolivia through Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. (ISA).

Ecopetrol is involved in all stages of the hydrocarbon chain: exploration, production, refining, and marketing, as well as the electric transmission business. The government of Colombia currently owns 88.49% of Ecopetrol, making it the controlling shareholder. Institutional shareholders and retail investors own the remaining 11.51%.

Rating Component Scores
Component
Foreign currency issuer credit rating	BB-/Stable/--
Local currency issuer credit rating	BB-/Stable/--
Business risk	Satisfactory
Country risk	Moderately high risk
Industry risk	Moderately high risk
Competitive position	Satisfactory
Financial risk	Significant
Cash flow/leverage	Significant
Anchor	bbb-
Modifiers
Diversification/portfolio effect	Neutral/Undiversified
Capital structure	Neutral
Financial policy	Neutral
Liquidity	Adequate
Management and governance	Moderately negative
Comparable rating analysis	Neutral
Stand-alone credit profile	bb+

Related Criteria

• Criteria | Corporates | General: Sector-Specific Corporate Methodology, July 7, 2025
• Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology, Jan. 7, 2024
• Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities, Jan. 7, 2024
• General Criteria: Environmental, Social, And Governance Principles In Credit Ratings, Oct. 10, 2021
• General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019
• Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, April 1, 2019
• Criteria | Corporates | General: Reflecting Subordination Risk In Corporate Issue Ratings, March 28, 2018
• General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015
• Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global  Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014
• General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013
• General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013
• General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011

Related Research

• Colombia Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'BB-' From 'BB' Due To Fiscal Imbalances; Outlook Stable, April 8, 2026
• S&P Global Ratings Raises 2026 Oil Price Assumptions On Longer-Than-Expected Oil Flows Disruption, March 16, 2026
• Ecopetrol S.A. Downgraded To 'BB' From 'BB+' On Similar Action On Colombia; Outlook Negative, June 27, 2025
• Ecopetrol S.A. 'BB+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Still Negative; Stand-Alone Credit Profile Revised Down, June 4, 2025

Ratings List

Ratings List
Downgraded; Outlook Action
	To	From
Ecopetrol S.A.
Issuer Credit Rating	BB-/Stable/--	BB/Negative/--
Downgraded
	To	From
Ecopetrol S. A.
Senior Unsecured	BB-	BB

Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/ratings-criteria for further information. A description of each of S&P Global Ratings' rating categories is contained in "S&P Global Ratings Definitions" at https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/504352. Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings referenced herein can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.spglobal.com/ratings.

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Primary Contact

Humberto Patino
Mexico City
humberto.patino
@ spglobal.com

Secondary Contacts

Fabiola Ortiz
Mexico City
5 2-55-5081-4449
fabiola.ortiz
@ spglobal.com

Claudia Sanchez
Mexico City
5 2-55-5081-4418
claudia.sanchez
@ spglobal.com

 

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SOURCE Ecopetrol S.A.

FAQ

What did Ecopetrol (EC) announce on April 9, 2026 about its S&P rating?

Ecopetrol announced its long‑term rating was lowered to BB- while SACP stayed at bb+. According to Ecopetrol, S&P tied the move to Colombia's sovereign downgrade and kept a stable outlook aligned with the sovereign.

Why did S&P lower Ecopetrol's credit rating to BB- (EC) on April 8, 2026?

S&P lowered the rating because it follows the downgrade of Colombia's sovereign credit rating. According to Ecopetrol, S&P cited Colombia's fiscal risks, government ownership and the company's role in national revenue as constraints.

How does the S&P downgrade affect Ecopetrol's outlook and stand‑alone profile (EC)?

The outlook remains stable and the SACP was affirmed at bb+, so fundamentals were not revised down. According to Ecopetrol, S&P still views government support probability as very high given the 88.49% ownership stake.

What financial impacts for shareholders did S&P highlight for Ecopetrol (EC)?

S&P highlighted reduced financial flexibility from large dividends and transfers, noting COP11.7 trillion dividends and a COP1.6 trillion FEPC transfer. According to Ecopetrol, these actions contributed to a DCF of -5.0%, below S&P expectations.