Silicon Valley Bank Releases 25th Annual State of the US Wine Industry Report
Rhea-AI Summary
Silicon Valley Bank (FCNCA) released its 25th annual 2026 State of the US Wine Industry Report on January 15, 2026, covering 2025 industry results and outlook. The report estimates 2025 volume at ~329 million cases (vs 335.9M in 2024) and total value at ~$74.3 billion (vs $75.5B in 2024). It documents a multi-year demand correction concentrated under the $12 price point, a 2.0% case decline and 1.6% dollar decline in 2025, margin compression, and elevated inventories. The report forecasts demand improvement in 2026, a market bottom through 2027–2028, and highlights double-digit growth in private‑label wine demand driven by excess bulk supply.
Positive
- Industry volume reported at ~329M cases for 2025
- Total value ~$74.3B for 2025 (improved decline vs 2024)
- Private‑label demand growing in double digits from bulk oversupply
- Forecast: demand expected to improve in 2026, bottom 2027–2028
Negative
- Industry sales declined 2.0% by cases in 2025
- Industry sales declined 1.6% by dollars in 2025
- Premium winery revenues down 1.2% in H1 2025 (cases and dollars)
- Margin compression and elevated inventories across the supply chain
News Market Reaction – FCNCA
On the day this news was published, FCNCA declined 0.05%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
FCNCA was marginally down -0.08% while key regional bank peers like HBAN, RF, CFG, MTB and SHG showed gains between 0.60% and 1.43%, pointing to stock-specific rather than sector-driven trading.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13 | Client financing deal | Positive | +0.1% | Non-dilutive growth facility arranged by Silicon Valley Bank and a partner. |
| Jan 08 | Sector insight report | Positive | +0.5% | Release of healthcare investments and exits report highlighting AI funding trends. |
| Dec 30 | Earnings call date | Neutral | -0.7% | Announcement of Q4 2025 earnings release and conference call schedule. |
| Dec 17 | Client financing deal | Positive | +0.9% | Over $225M in facilities supporting community solar projects and corporate needs. |
| Dec 16 | Client financing deal | Positive | +0.8% | New $80M syndicated revolver led by First Citizens for solar and storage pipeline. |
Recent news items, including sector reports and client financings, have generally coincided with small positive price reactions, suggesting modestly constructive sentiment to these announcements.
Over the last few months, FCNCA has highlighted multiple client financing and sector insight initiatives. Recent items include an up to $45 million non-dilutive facility for Positive Development on Jan 13, 2026, and the 2026 Healthcare Investments and Exits report on Jan 8, 2026. Earlier, the bank supported solar-related financings totaling over $225 million for Pivot Energy and an $80 million revolver for Soltage in December 2025. These actions underscore FCNCA’s role as a lender and sector thought leader, consistent with today’s wine industry report.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement centers on Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 State of the US Wine Industry report, highlighting estimated 329 million cases and $74.3 billion in 2025 sales alongside declines in volume and value. It underscores multi-year demand correction, inventory overhang, and margin compression for wineries, while noting opportunities in private labels and evolving consumer engagement. In context with FCNCA’s broader sector reports and client financings, investors may watch how wine-industry credit demand, inventory trends, and premium segment revenues evolve relative to these benchmarks.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Demand decline improving with stabilization on the horizon
The 2026 report estimates the following industry sales totals for 2025:
- Total volume of ~329 million cases (down from 335.9 million in 2024)
- Total value of
~ (down from$74.3 billion $75.5 billion
The wine industry is moving through a multi-year demand correction, largely driven by value wines at the under
The premium industry will likely experience its first sales growth rate decline in since 2020. In the first half of 2025, financial results collected in SVB's Peer Group Analysis Database show premium winery revenues were down
"We expect the decline in total market demand to improve in 2026, with the market bottoming in 2027 through 2028 before returning to modest growth rates," said Rob McMillan, First Citizens Bank's Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division founder and author of the report. "This is not a cycle you can wait out. The wineries still demonstrating growth are not betting on a return to normal – they are fundamentally altering how they engage with the consumer, manage inventory, and are redefining their brand's value proposition."
The 2026 SVB wine report examines the latest consumption, pricing and sales data as well as the most promising wine industry marketing strategies. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the key trends and data impacting the US wine industry:
- The rate of the demand decline for the wine industry is predicted to improve in 2026, bounce along a bottom through 2027-2028, then shift back to modest growth.
- Excess inventory of high-quality, bulk wine is creating compelling consumer value in private labels, where wine demand is growing in double digits.
- Oversupply remains a structural headwind with elevated inventories spanning the entire supply chain. That will improve only when demand improves at retail.
- Tasting room visits declined at smaller hospitality-focused wineries as did average check sizes at most small, direct-to-consumer-focused wineries.
Silicon Valley Bank will host a live webinar to discuss the annual report and state of the wine industry on January 15th at 9:00 a.m. PST. The panel will include Rob McMillan of Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First Citizen Bank, Janie Brooks Heuck, Managing Director of Brooks Wine, Kristin Marchesi, Managing Director of Metis Mergers & Acquisitions, and Matthew Owings, VP and General Manager of Rombauer Vineyards. Register for the live webinar here. A replay of the discussion will be available after the event.
Read the full 2026 State of the Wine Industry report here.
Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division
Founded in 1994, SVB's Wine Division specializes in commercial banking for premium wineries and vineyards and the industries that support them. With the largest team of commercial bankers dedicated to the wine industry of any bank nationwide, SVB's Wine Division has offices in
About Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a division of First Citizens Bank, is the bank of some of the world's most innovative companies and investors. SVB provides commercial banking to companies in the technology, life science and healthcare, private equity and venture capital industries. SVB operates in centers of innovation throughout
About First Citizens Bank
First Citizens Bank helps personal, business, commercial and wealth clients build financial strength that lasts. Headquartered in Raleigh, N.C., First Citizens has built a unique legacy of strength, stability and long-term thinking that has spanned generations. First Citizens offers an array of general banking services with branches and offices nationwide; commercial banking expertise delivering best-in-class lending, leasing and other financial services coast to coast; innovation banking serving businesses at every stage; and a nationwide direct bank. Parent company First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) is a top 20 U.S. financial institution with more than
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SOURCE Silicon Valley Bank
FAQ
What 2025 industry totals does the SVB 2026 wine report give for FCNCA coverage?
How did US wine sales change in 2025 according to SVB's January 15, 2026 report?
What outlook does the SVB 2026 wine report give for demand and timing?
Which segment showed revenue weakness in early 2025 in the SVB report?
What industry headwinds does the SVB report highlight for wine investors on January 15, 2026?
Does the SVB report identify any growth opportunities for wine companies?
