Home Sales Forecast Upgraded in May Outlook

Rhea-AI Summary

Fannie Mae (FNMA) has released its May 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, revealing an upgraded forecast for total single-family home sales. The ESR Group projects 4.92 million units in total sales for 2025, with 4.24 million being existing home sales. This revision is partly due to lower expected mortgage rates, forecasted to reach 6.1% by end-2025 and 5.8% by end-2026. The outlook also predicts real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis.

Positive

• Upgraded forecast for total single-family home sales to 4.92 million units in 2025
• Lower projected mortgage rates: 6.1% by end-2025 and 5.8% by end-2026
• Positive GDP growth forecasted: 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026

Negative

• None.

WASHINGTON, May 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Total single-family home sales are expected to close 2025 at 4.92 million units, with existing home sales accounting for 4.24 million of those units, according to the May 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Revisions to the home sales forecast were driven in part by the ESR Group's lower expectations for mortgage rates, which it now forecasts to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively. The latest outlook also projects real gross domestic product growing at 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis.

Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full May 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.

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SOURCE Fannie Mae

FAQ

What is Fannie Mae's forecast for total home sales in 2025?

Fannie Mae forecasts total single-family home sales of 4.92 million units in 2025, with 4.24 million being existing home sales.

What are FNMA's mortgage rate predictions for 2025 and 2026?

Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to end at 6.1% in 2025 and decrease to 5.8% by the end of 2026.

What is Fannie Mae's GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026?

Fannie Mae projects real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis.

How many existing home sales does Fannie Mae expect in 2025?

Fannie Mae forecasts 4.24 million existing home sales for 2025.