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Forrester Introduces AI Disruption Model To Assess AI’s Impact On Technology And Service Markets

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agentic workloads technical
Agentic workloads are sets of tasks that are carried out by autonomous software agents rather than people, such as routing customer requests, making routine decisions, or executing repeatable processes. For investors, they matter because shifting work from humans to these self-directed programs can cut labor costs, speed operations, and scale services like a factory robot — changes that can boost productivity, alter capital needs, and affect a company’s future earnings potential.
zero trust technical
Zero trust is a security approach that assumes no one, whether inside or outside an organization, should be automatically trusted. Instead, every access request is carefully verified before being granted, much like checking ID at every door rather than trusting someone just because they are known. For investors, it emphasizes the importance of protecting digital assets and data from potential breaches, reducing overall risk.
autonomous agents technical
Autonomous agents are software programs that carry out tasks and make decisions on their own using predefined rules and data, often improving over time by learning from outcomes; think of them as trusted employees that act without being constantly supervised. Investors care because these agents can boost productivity and cut costs, enable new services or revenue streams, and change competitive dynamics, while also introducing operational, legal and oversight risks that can affect a company's value.
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With AI widening the divide across tech products and services, the model helps leaders identify the markets most likely to accelerate, transform, or face disruption

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- According to Forrester’s (Nasdaq: FORR) AI Disruption Model, unveiled today, advancements in AI are disrupting technology markets at an unprecedented pace — enhancing the value of certain products and services while making others increasingly vulnerable to replacement. Two new reports, The Forrester AI Disruption Model: How AI Disrupts Or Accelerates Technology And Service Markets and The Forrester AI Disruption Model: Category Analysis, reveal that technology products and services that enable, secure, and govern AI are poised for significant growth due to organizations moving from experimentation to enterprise-scale deployment of AI applications and autonomous agents. In comparison, skills-based services will face disruption as AI assumes tasks that have traditionally depended on human expertise.

Applied to 17 technology and service categories comprising more than 200 technology and service markets, the model analyzes whether AI is likely to accelerate, disrupt, reshape, or have limited impact on individual markets. The factors include: AI substitutability, labor intensity, support for agentic workloads, commercial models, data and trust advantages, agentic workload support, AI-focused R&D investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity, and switching costs.

Key findings from the research include:

  • AI enablers are positioned for growth. Infrastructure providers (cloud platforms, data centers, and storage), data and AI providers (AI models, AI platforms, data management, and governance solutions), and cybersecurity and identity providers (including Zero Trust and AI agent security) are the only three markets expected to benefit as enterprises scale AI deployments.
  • Labor-intensive knowledge-work industries face the greatest disruption. Transformation services, technology implementation, software development, creative services, localization, and training markets will experience pressure as AI substitutes for activities traditionally performed by people, including coding, content creation, and translation.
  • Many enterprise software categories will be reshaped rather than displaced. Business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, customer experience, and marketing technology are expected to evolve as AI transforms workflows and user experiences. While these categories are vulnerable to disruption, embedded workflows, regulatory requirements, switching costs, and growing demand for data, orchestration, governance, and trust capabilities help sustain their relevance.

“Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul,” said Craig Le Clair, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “Our research shows that AI’s benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories — infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security — are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt.”

Using the Forrester AI Disruption Model, tech leaders can anticipate the impact of AI on their portfolios and plan accordingly. By assessing which markets are likely to accelerate, transform, or face disruption, organizations can better prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead.

“The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets,” said Ted Schadler, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “Forrester’s AI Disruption Model gives providers a practical framework to evaluate where AI is likely to accelerate their growth, transform their market dynamics, or replace existing sources of value. Providers can use the model to anticipate change and prioritize investments to thrive in the AI era.”

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About Forrester

Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We empower leaders in technology, customer experience, digital, marketing, revenue, and product functions to make confident decisions in an AI-driven world and accelerate growth through customer obsession. Our unique research and continuous guidance model helps executives and their teams achieve their initiatives and outcomes faster and with confidence. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.

PRESS CONTACT
Hannah Segvich
hsegvich@forrester.com

Source: Forrester