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Capstone Partners Reports: Middle Market M&A Valuations Prove Resilient Despite Macroeconomic Disruption as Confidence Builds Entering 2026

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Capstone Partners released its 2025 Middle Market M&A Valuations Index on April 15, 2026, reporting mixed but resilient middle‑market activity. Q1 2025 volume rose 10.3% YoY and deal values rose 21.2% YoY, while average purchase multiples reached 9.8x EV/EBITDA in 2025.

The report notes a mid‑2025 shock that disrupted deal flow, a subsequent restoration of buyer confidence, falling leverage (net debt/EBITDA to 3.4x) and weaker interest coverage (2.9x), with many advisors expecting stable or modestly higher multiples entering 2026.

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AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Positive

  • Deal values +21.2% year‑over‑year in Q1 2025
  • M&A volume +10.3% year‑over‑year in Q1 2025
  • Average purchase multiple reached 9.8x EV/EBITDA in 2025
  • Net debt/EBITDA fell to 3.4x from 6.2x year ago
  • Low double‑digit EBITDA deals comprised 40.7% of disclosed multiples

Negative

  • Liberation Day disruptions forced Q2 transactions to be re‑priced or abandoned
  • Average EBIT/interest expense fell to 2.9x from 6.0x in 2024
  • Deal diligence timelines stretched far beyond historical norms in mid‑2025
  • Lower‑quality assets faced accelerated repricing and deal cancellations

News Market Reaction – HBAN

+0.48%
1 alert
+0.48% News Effect

On the day this news was published, HBAN gained 0.48%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Q1 2025 M&A volume change: 10.3% YOY increase Q1 2024 M&A volume change: 15.8% YOY decline Q1 2025 deal values: 21.2% YOY increase +5 more
8 metrics
Q1 2025 M&A volume change 10.3% YOY increase Middle market M&A volume vs Q1 2024
Q1 2024 M&A volume change 15.8% YOY decline Middle market M&A volume vs prior year
Q1 2025 deal values 21.2% YOY increase Middle market M&A deal values vs Q1 2024
Average valuation 2025 9.8x EV/EBITDA Middle market M&A valuations, vs 9.4x 2024 and 9.0x 2023
Advisors expecting higher multiples 27.4% Surveyed advisors anticipating higher M&A multiples in 2026 vs 2025
Expected typical multiple 2026 6.8x EBITDA Average expected typical middle market M&A multiple
Low double-digit deals 2025 40.7% of disclosed multiples Share of deals in low double-digit EBITDA range, vs 31.6% in 2024
Net debt-to-EBITDA 2025 3.4x (from 6.2x) Average leverage in private equity-backed middle market deals

Market Reality Check

Price: $16.36 Vol: Volume 27,439,974 is 1.13...
normal vol
$16.36 Last Close
Volume Volume 27,439,974 is 1.13x the 20-day average, indicating slightly elevated trading interest ahead of this macro M&A update. normal
Technical Price at 16.578 is trading below the 200-day MA of 16.83, with shares also 14.79% under the 52-week high and 32.84% above the 52-week low.

Peers on Argus

HBAN slipped 0.18% with mixed moves across key regional bank peers: FCNCA (-0.16...
1 Down

HBAN slipped 0.18% with mixed moves across key regional bank peers: FCNCA (-0.16%), RF (-0.18%), FITB (-0.06%), while SHG (+0.47%) and CFG (+0.26%) were modestly higher. Momentum scanner only flagged BAP at -7.89%, reinforcing a stock-specific rather than broad sector move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Apr 06 (Positive)
Pattern 5 events
Date Event Sentiment Move Catalyst
Apr 06 Brand partnership Positive +0.9% Named Official Consumer Bank of the University of Michigan, expanding campus presence.
Mar 31 Tech platform upgrade Positive +4.2% Selected SEI Wealth Platform to streamline and unify wealth management operations.
Mar 30 Preferred dividends Positive +4.2% Declared cash dividends on Series I and L preferred stock with set pay dates.
Mar 06 Conference appearance Positive -2.2% Announced presentation at RBC financial institutions conference to discuss trends and strategy.
Feb 04 Wealth partnership Positive +3.4% Chose Ameriprise Financial as new retail investment program provider for advisors.
Pattern Detected

Recent corporate and partnership news has more often coincided with modestly positive next-day reactions, though conference announcements have not always been rewarded.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, HBAN’s news flow has focused on partnerships, technology upgrades, and brand expansion. A University of Michigan banking partnership on Apr 06 2026 and tech platform selections with SEI and Ameriprise in Q1 2026 all saw positive 24-hour price reactions. A preferred dividend declaration on Mar 30 2026 also aligned with a gain, while a conference presentation announcement on Mar 06 2026 coincided with a decline. Today’s macro M&A valuation report is broader in scope and not directly tied to HBAN-specific operations.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement provides a macro backdrop of resilient middle market M&A valuations, with 2025 ave...
Analysis

This announcement provides a macro backdrop of resilient middle market M&A valuations, with 2025 averages at 9.8x EV/EBITDA and leverage down to 3.4x net debt-to-EBITDA. For HBAN, it contextualizes the environment for lending, advisory, and sponsor-backed clients rather than signaling company-specific change. Investors may track future updates on deal volumes, credit performance, and technology partnerships—areas highlighted in recent HBAN news—to see how the bank positions itself within this evolving M&A landscape.

Key Terms

ev/ebitda, irr, net debt-to-ebitda, ebit/interest expense ratio
4 terms
ev/ebitda financial
"Average M&A valuations settled at 9.8x EV/EBITDA in 2025, up from 9.4x in 2024"
EV/EBITDA is a valuation ratio that compares a company’s total market value including debt and cash (enterprise value) to its operating cash profit before financing and accounting adjustments (EBITDA). It tells investors how many years of that operating cash profit would be needed to pay for the whole business, making it useful for comparing how cheaply or expensively different companies trade regardless of size or financing. Think of it like comparing the price of a rental property to its annual rent to judge value.
irr financial
"portfolio companies remained the core component of sponsor exits and enabled these players to maintain internal rate of return (IRR) levels"
IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is the annualized percentage return an investment is expected to produce based on its projected series of cash outflows and inflows; mathematically, it’s the rate that makes the present value of those cash flows balance to zero. Investors use IRR to compare and rank projects or investments—similar to comparing the interest rates on savings accounts—to judge which offers the best return for the time and risk involved.
net debt-to-ebitda financial
"average net debt-to-EBITDA falling from 6.2x in 2024 to 3.4x in 2025"
Net debt-to-EBITDA is a financial ratio that compares a company's total debt, minus its cash reserves, to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). It shows how many years it would take for the company to pay off its net debt if all its earnings were used for that purpose. Investors use this ratio to assess whether a company has manageable debt levels and its ability to meet its financial obligations.
ebit/interest expense ratio financial
"average EBIT/interest expense ratio falling to 2.9x from 6.0x in the prior year"
EBIT/interest expense ratio compares a company’s operating earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to the annual cost of its debt interest, showing how many times those earnings can pay interest charges. Investors use it like a safety gauge: a higher number means the business generates plenty of operating profit to meet borrowing costs, while a low number suggests greater risk that interest obligations could strain cash flow.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

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BOSTON, April 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Capstone Partners, a leading middle market investment banking firm, released its 2025 Middle Market M&A Valuations Index, reporting that dealmaking conditions began to normalize entering 2025 as buyers regained confidence after facing significant pressure throughout 2024. Prior to Liberation Day, Q1 2025 middle market merger and acquisition (M&A) volume rose 10.3% year-over-year (YOY) compared to a 15.8% YOY decline in Q1 2024. At the same time, deal values rose 21.2% YOY in Q1 2025 compared to a 4% YOY contraction in Q1 2024, demonstrating a clear upturn in M&A market activity to start 2025. However, Liberation Day immediately stunted this momentum as industries reliant on global supply lines delayed dealmaking. The response from buyers was violent and swift. This collapse created a dramatic valuation gap in M&A dealmaking between buyers and sellers, forcing Q2 transactions to be re-priced, restructured, or abandoned outright as uncertainty soared and due diligence timelines stretched far beyond historical norms. By mid-2025, the Trump administration tempered parts of its tariff escalation and investors regained confidence. Firms began building strategies designed to thrive within geopolitical uncertainty, using M&A as a tool for resilience, expansion, and competitive positioning.

Amid the tumultuous year, M&A valuations remained resilient for quality assets and insulated sectors in the middle market. Average M&A valuations settled at 9.8x EV/EBITDA in 2025, up from 9.4x in 2024 and 9.0x in 2023. The Aerospace, Defense, Government & Security (ADGS), Business Services, Energy, and Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) industries all posted YOY improvements in average purchase multiples, reflecting select areas of strength. Agriculture also saw higher average multiples, illustrating a push-and-pull dynamic in which high-margin Agriculture sectors buoyed valuations, even as several distressed transactions weighed on specific subsectors. Investor appetite remained robust and was matched by disciplined execution. More than a quarter (27.4%) of advisors surveyed by Capstone anticipate M&A transaction multiples in 2026 to rise compared to 2025, according to Capstone Partners and IMAP's 2025-2026 Trends in Global M&A Survey Report. However, most (66%) advisors foresee little to no change in M&A multiples in 2026. Across all investment bankers surveyed, the average typical and premium M&A EBITDA multiples are expected to reach 6.8x and 9.8x, respectively—an uptick from the 2025 outlook. Lower-quality assets saw buyers accelerate diligence timelines while the upper end of the market remained healthy, competitive, and reminiscent of more robust transaction environments. This was reflected in the rebound of deals closing in the low double-digit EBITDA range, which comprised 40.7% of disclosed multiples in 2025 compared to 31.6% of 2024 transactions.

In 2025, private equity (PE) continued to do what it has done historically—adapt. High-quality portfolio companies remained the core component of sponsor exits and enabled these players to maintain internal rate of return (IRR) levels, according to Capstone Partners' bi‑annual Middle Market Private Equity Index Report. Add-on acquisitions remained the majority of sponsor activity at 58.2% in 2025 though this share has declined from 61.3% in 2024. The buy-and-build model has evolved from a distinct strategy to becoming the industry's default operating framework. Sponsors showed a strong preference for platforms equipped with a clear integration roadmap, defined targets, and modern systems to support seamless onboarding of subsequent acquisitions. Additionally, leverage decreased meaningfully, with average net debt-to-EBITDA falling from 6.2x in 2024 to 3.4x in 2025, indicating lesser reliance on debt financing than in prior years. As debt usage decreased, interest coverage weakened, with the average EBIT/interest expense ratio falling to 2.9x from 6.0x in the prior year, suggesting higher interest burden relative to operating earnings. Despite the severity of Liberation Day interruptions, the middle market appears positioned for a steady M&A re-acceleration in 2026, supported by stabilizing valuations, continued sector-level resilience, healthier balance sheets, and rising investor demand for high-quality opportunities.

Also included in this report:

  • A breakdown of average middle market M&A valuations by industry.
  • Discussion of middle market M&A transaction volume on an industry level.
  • Commentary on the operating performance of target companies sold in 2025 compared to prior years.

To access to full report, click here.

ABOUT CAPSTONE PARTNERS

For over 20 years, the firm has been a trusted advisor to leading middle market companies, offering a fully integrated range of investment banking and financial advisory services uniquely tailored to help owners, investors, and creditors through each stage of the company's lifecycle. Capstone's services include M&A advisory, debt and equity placement, corporate restructuring, special situations, valuation and fairness opinions and financial advisory services. Headquartered in Boston, the firm has 175+ professionals in multiple offices across the U.S. With 12 dedicated industry groups, Capstone delivers sector-specific expertise through large, cross-functional teams. Capstone is a subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN). For more information, visit www.capstonepartners.com.

Cision View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/capstone-partners-reports-middle-market-ma-valuations-prove-resilient-despite-macroeconomic-disruption-as-confidence-builds-entering-2026-302743325.html

SOURCE Capstone Partners

FAQ

How did Capstone Partners report middle‑market M&A volume for Q1 2025 (HBAN)?

Q1 2025 middle‑market M&A volume rose 10.3% YoY, showing a recovery from 2024. According to Capstone Partners, that compares with a 15.8% YoY decline in Q1 2024 and signals returning buyer activity early in 2025.

What change did Capstone Partners report for deal values in Q1 2025 for HBAN?

Deal values increased 21.2% YoY in Q1 2025, marking a clear rebound. According to Capstone Partners, this contrasts with a 4% YoY contraction in Q1 2024, indicating stronger pricing for transacted assets early in 2025.

What average EV/EBITDA multiples did Capstone Partners publish for 2025 (HBAN)?

Average middle‑market purchase multiples reached 9.8x EV/EBITDA in 2025. According to Capstone Partners, that level rose from 9.4x in 2024 and 9.0x in 2023, reflecting resilience in valuations for quality assets.

How did leverage and interest coverage change in Capstone Partners' 2025 report (HBAN)?

Net debt/EBITDA fell to 3.4x, while EBIT/interest dropped to 2.9x in 2025. According to Capstone Partners, this shows reduced leverage but higher interest burden relative to operating earnings year‑over‑year.

What did Capstone Partners say about private equity activity and add‑ons in 2025 (HBAN)?

Private equity add‑ons remained majority activity at 58.2% in 2025, down from 61.3% in 2024. According to Capstone Partners, sponsors continued buy‑and‑build strategies, favoring platforms with integration roadmaps and modern systems.