IBM Study: AI Poised to Drive Smarter Business Growth Through 2030

Rhea-AI Summary

IBM (NYSE: IBM) released an IBM Institute for Business Value study of 2,007 senior executives showing AI is positioned to shift from efficiency to innovation by 2030. Key findings: 79% expect AI to significantly contribute to revenue by 2030 (up from 40% today); respondents forecast AI investment will rise ~150% by 2030; AI spend is expected to move from 47% efficiency today to 62% innovation by 2030. The study projects 42% productivity gains, notes 68% fear failure from poor integration, and highlights multi-model AI, small language models, quantum expectations, and major workforce shifts through 2030.

Positive

• 79% of executives expect AI will significantly drive revenue by 2030
• Projected ~150% increase in AI investment between now and 2030
• AI spend expected to shift to 62% innovation by 2030
• Productivity gains projected at 42% by 2030
• Scaling with smaller/custom models linked to 24% greater productivity and 55% higher operating margins

Negative

• Only 24% of executives have a clear view of where AI-driven revenue will come from
• 68% of executives worry AI efforts will fail due to poor integration with core business
• Only 28% have a clear view of the AI models they'll need by 2030
• 59% expect quantum-enabled AI to transform industries but only 27% expect to use quantum by 2030

Key Figures

Execs seeing AI revenue impact by 2030: 79% Current AI revenue impact: 40% Clear view of AI revenue sources: 24% +5 more

8 metrics

Execs seeing AI revenue impact by 2030 79% Share of surveyed executives expecting AI to significantly contribute to revenue by 2030

Current AI revenue impact 40% Share of surveyed executives saying AI significantly contributes to revenue today

Clear view of AI revenue sources 24% Executives who have a clear view of where AI-driven revenue will come from

Projected AI investment surge 150% Predicted increase in AI investment between survey timing and 2030

AI productivity gain by 2030 42% Expected boost to productivity from AI by 2030

AI spend on innovation by 2030 62% Share of AI spend executives expect to allocate to innovation by 2030

Expect SLMs to surpass LLMs 72% Respondents expecting small language models to surpass large language models by 2030

Execs seeing AI removing constraints 67% Executives expecting AI to eliminate current resource and skills constraints

Market Reality Check

Price: $305.67 Vol: Volume 6,073,443 is 50% a...

normal vol

$305.67 Last Close

Volume Volume 6,073,443 is 50% above the 20-day average of 4,060,575, indicating elevated interest ahead of this AI study. normal

Technical Trading above the 200-day MA, with price at 305.67 versus MA 274.82, signaling a pre-existing uptrend into the news.

Peers on Argus

IBM gained 2.59% while key peers were mixed: ACN +0.27%, FI -0.17%, INFY -1.17%,...

IBM gained 2.59% while key peers were mixed: ACN +0.27%, FI -0.17%, INFY -1.17%, CTSH -0.42%, FIS -0.17%. Moves diverge from IBM, pointing to company-specific interest around its AI positioning.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 15 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Jan 15	AI software launch	Positive	-3.6%	Announced IBM Sovereign Core software for AI-ready sovereign environments.
Jan 14	Earnings date notice	Neutral	+1.9%	Set date and webcast details for Q4 2025 financial results.
Jan 07	AI retail study	Positive	-1.9%	Released global study with NRF on AI’s role in consumer pre-purchase decisions.
Jan 06	AI sports partnership	Positive	+2.5%	Renewed long-term AI and cloud partnership with Wimbledon to boost digital reach.
Dec 11	AI learning tools deal	Positive	-0.6%	Announced Pearson collaboration to build AI-powered learning tools globally.

Pattern Detected

Recent AI and product-partnership news often produced muted or even negative next-day moves, suggesting investors sometimes fade positive strategic headlines.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, IBM has issued a series of AI-centric announcements, from partnerships with Pearson and Wimbledon to sector studies and new software such as IBM Sovereign Core. Price reactions have varied, with some positive AI or product news followed by declines, as on Jan 15 and Jan 7, while others like the Wimbledon renewal on Jan 6 saw gains. Today’s AI study extends this pattern of framing IBM as a key AI thought leader and ecosystem partner.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement emphasizes how AI could drive enterprise growth through 2030, with surveyed execut...

Analysis

This announcement emphasizes how AI could drive enterprise growth through 2030, with surveyed executives expecting higher revenue contribution, productivity gains of 42% and a shift of 62% of AI spend toward innovation. For context, IBM has recently issued multiple AI-focused releases across industries. Investors may watch how these strategic themes intersect with upcoming financial results, adoption of IBM’s AI platforms, and evidence that projected gains translate into measurable operating and revenue metrics.

Key Terms

large language models (LLMs), small language models (SLMs), quantum computing

3 terms

large language models (LLMs) technical

"72% expect small language models (SLMs) to surpass large language models (LLMs)."

Large language models (LLMs) are advanced computer programs trained on massive amounts of text to generate, summarize, translate and understand human-like language. For investors they matter because LLMs can act like a very fast, experienced research assistant—automating customer service, speeding product development and cutting costs—while also creating new revenue opportunities and regulatory, accuracy and ethical risks that can affect a company’s profits and reputation.

small language models (SLMs) technical

"82% of respondents expect their AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, and 72% expect small language models (SLMs) to surpass large language models (LLMs)."

Small language models (SLMs) are compact versions of AI systems that read, understand and generate text using far fewer computing resources than large models. They matter to investors because they make AI features cheaper and faster to deploy across products—like swapping a pocket calculator for a mainframe—potentially reducing costs and expanding addressable markets, while trading off some accuracy and capability which affects product performance and regulatory risk.

quantum computing technical

"59% of respondents say quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030, only 27% expect to be using quantum computing by then"

Quantum computing is a type of advanced technology that uses the principles of quantum physics to perform calculations much faster than traditional computers. It can process vast amounts of information simultaneously, potentially solving complex problems that are currently impossible or take too long with regular computers. For investors, this technology could lead to breakthroughs in areas like cryptography, data analysis, and optimization, impacting financial markets and security systems.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

• By 2030, surveyed executives anticipate AI spend to shift from efficiency to innovation
• AI productivity gains projected to increase by 42%, fueling reinvestment for growth
• 67% of respondents expect AI to eliminate resource and skills constraints

ARMONK, N.Y., Jan. 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- New research from the IBM (NYSE: IBM) Institute for Business Value reveals that nearly eight in ten (79%) surveyed executives expect AI will significantly contribute to their revenue by 2030 – up from 40% today – yet, few (24%) have a clear view of where that revenue will come from.

Despite this uncertainty, investment is accelerating: respondents predict that AI investment will surge approximately 150% between now and 2030. At the same time, 68% of executives surveyed worry their AI efforts will fail due to lack of integration with core business activities. 

"AI won't just support businesses, it will define them," said Mohamad Ali, Senior Vice President, IBM Consulting. "By 2030, the companies that win will weave AI into every decision and operation. They will own powerful AI assets, move faster than competitors, bring innovations to market quickly, and deliver real, measurable business results using technology and automation."

The global study*, based on insights from 2,000 C-suite executives, shows that AI is emerging as a critical driver of enterprise growth through 2030. The findings suggest that future success will come from making bolder strategic bets, even as many surveyed executives face a gap between expectations and outcomes. Key findings include:

Executives are looking beyond AI efficiency to drive future gains

• While nearly half (47%) of AI spend is now focused on efficiency, respondents expect 62% of AI spend will be dedicated to innovation by 2030.
• 64% of surveyed executives believe that by 2030, competitive advantage will come from innovation rather than resource optimization.
• 70% of surveyed executives plan to reinvest the value from AI-powered productivity gains into growth initiatives.
• Respondents expect AI to boost productivity by 42% by 2030, with 67% expecting to capture most AI-enabled productivity gains by then.

Competitive advantage will depend on the right technology bets

• While most surveyed executives (57%) say their competitive advantage will come from AI model sophistication, only 28% have a clear view of what AI models they'll need by 2030.
• 82% of respondents expect their AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, and 72% expect small language models (SLMs) to surpass large language models (LLMs).
• Surveyed organizations scaling AI across multiple workflows, using smaller, custom and foundation AI models, anticipate 24% greater productivity gains and 55% higher operating margins by 2030.
• While 59% of respondents say quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030, only 27% expect to be using quantum computing by then — a gap that underscores opportunity for organizations that are prepared to act today.

AI is redefining leadership and the skills that matter most

• By 2030, executives surveyed expect 25% of enterprise boards will have an AI advisor or co-decision maker, and 74% say AI will redefine leadership roles across the enterprise, with two-thirds believing AI will create entirely new leadership roles.
• Meanwhile, 67% of respondents say job roles are becoming shorter-lived, 57% expect most current employee skills to be obsolete by 2030, and 67% agree mindset will matter more than skills.
• In addition, 67% of surveyed executives expect AI to eliminate the resource and skills constraints that hold their organization back today.
• For AI-first organizations, analysis shows they are 48% more likely to create net-new jobs roles and 46% more likely to redesign their organizational structure to achieve more AI value.

The study provides a roadmap for business leaders on how to turn AI-first ambitions into measurable outcomes. To view the full study, visit: https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/en-us/report/enterprise-2030

As part of the study, senior executives shared their perspectives on how technology is reshaping strategy, operations, and workforce priorities. See addendum below.

*Study Methodology
The IBM Institute for Business Value, in cooperation with Oxford Economics, gathered insights from 2,007 senior executives on how they expect their organizations to evolve between 2025 and 2030. The survey was conducted across 33 geographies and 20 industries during the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The survey explored strategic priorities, including AI-first operations, the integration of advanced AI models into products and services, workforce transformation, and readiness for emerging technologies like quantum computing.

The IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM's thought leadership think tank, combines global research and performance data with expertise from industry thinkers and leading academics to deliver insights that make business leaders smarter. For more world-class thought leadership, visit: www.ibm.com/ibv. To receive more insights, subscribe to the IdeaWatch newsletter: https://ibm.co/ibv-ideawatch. 

About IBM
IBM is a leading provider of global hybrid cloud and AI, and consulting expertise. We help clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Thousands of government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications and healthcare rely on IBM's hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to affect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently and securely. IBM's breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and consulting deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM's long-standing commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity, and service.  Visit www.ibm.com for more information.

Media Contact
Marisa Conway
IBM Corporate Communications
conwaym@us.ibm.com

Executive Perspectives:

"The capabilities that transcend any particular job will remain very important: decision-making, judgment, strategy, collaboration skills, intuition, clarity of thought. Those things will become even more necessary in a world where you can delegate a lot of the underlying work to an agent." — Aaron Levie, CEO and Co-Founder, Box

"Quantum will never stand alone. Classical computing, AI, and quantum must work together in connected workflows." — Dr. Thomas Eckl, Chief Expert, Bosch 

"AI's future isn't about bigger models. It's about smarter integration with people and processes." — Jinesh Dalal, Head and VP, Technology Development, C-Metric

"We'll need more problem solvers who understand both the business and the models—people who can marry technical capability with business insight. That's the future of every company, including ours." — Umang Dharmik, SVP and Head of IT, Mercedes-Benz Research Development India (MBRDI)

"We're the first women's soccer league in the world to implement a video assistant referee. We know that AI is going to unlock tremendous efficiency and effectiveness to reduce or potentially even eliminate some of the human error that happens around the calls that happen on the field." — Jessica Berman, Commissioner, National Women's Soccer League

"By 2030, insight will be everywhere. Interfaces will be radically different, and AI will act as the business intelligence system, decision engine, and a participant in operations." — Chad Gates, Managing Director, Pronto Software 

"The entire C-suite should always be asking, 'How can we disrupt the market? How can we leverage disruption to our competitive advantage by reinventing the what's next and where are we going?'" — Maureen Power Sweeny, Chief Revenue Officer, RapidScale

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SOURCE IBM

FAQ

What did the IBM study say about AI's contribution to revenue by 2030 for IBM (NYSE: IBM)?

The study reports 79% of surveyed executives expect AI will significantly contribute to revenue by 2030, up from 40% today.

How much do executives expect AI investment to increase by 2030 according to the IBM study?

Respondents predict AI investment will surge approximately 150% between now and 2030.

What productivity gains does the IBM Institute for Business Value project from AI by 2030?

The study projects AI will boost productivity by 42% by 2030.

What risks did the IBM study identify for AI projects at companies (IBM symbol IBM)?

The study finds 68% of executives worry AI efforts will fail due to lack of integration with core business activities.

How will AI spending priorities shift through 2030 per the IBM study?

Surveyed executives expect AI spend to move from 47% on efficiency today to 62% on innovation by 2030.

What workforce changes does the IBM study predict by 2030 for organizations like those surveyed?

The study expects AI to redefine leadership roles, with 25% of boards having an AI advisor and 57% saying most current employee skills will be obsolete by 2030.