ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Seasonal and Calendar Factors Drive Rise in November Delinquencies

Key Terms

delinquency rate financial

The delinquency rate measures the share of loans or credit accounts with payments past their due date, usually expressed as a percentage of the total loan balance or number of accounts. It matters to investors because rising delinquency rates are an early warning that borrowers are struggling, which can lead to higher losses, tighter lending and weaker profits for banks, lenders and investors in loan-backed securities — like seeing more people miss car payments in a town.

prepayment financial

Payment of a loan, mortgage or scheduled obligation earlier than originally agreed, similar to paying off a car or house ahead of schedule to stop future monthly charges. It matters to investors because early repayment alters expected cash flows and interest income — for lenders or bondholders it can mean receiving principal sooner than planned and needing to reinvest at possibly lower rates, and for securities backed by loans it changes timing and amount of returns.

basis point financial

A basis point is a unit equal to one one‑hundredth of a percent (0.01%), used to describe very small changes in interest rates, bond yields, fees or other percentage figures. Think of it like a single dollar change on $10,000: tiny by itself but meaningful when applied to large sums or repeated over time, so investors use basis points to track and compare small but financially significant moves precisely.

foreclosure starts financial

Foreclosure starts count the number of homes where the lender has begun the legal process to take back a property because the borrower missed mortgage payments. Like the first visible crack in a building, a rise in foreclosure starts signals growing trouble in a housing market and can warn investors about higher loan losses, weaker property values, and stress for banks or real-estate funds with mortgage exposure.

foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate financial

The foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate measures the share of a real estate inventory made up of properties that are in the foreclosure process but have not yet been sold. Think of it like the proportion of items on a store shelf that are damaged or marked for disposal before they actually leave the store. Investors watch this because a rising rate signals growing distressed supply that can push local prices down, affect rental markets, and increase risk for mortgages, property funds or homebuilders.

loan delinquency rate financial

The loan delinquency rate is the share of a lender’s loans that are past due on payments, expressed as a percentage of the total loan portfolio. Think of it as the fraction of customers who haven’t paid their bills on time; higher rates signal more borrowers struggling to pay and a greater chance the lender will face losses or need to set aside money to cover bad loans. Investors watch it as an early warning about credit quality and future profitability.

non-current financial

Non-current describes assets or obligations that a company does not expect to convert to cash or settle within the next year (or its normal business cycle), meaning they are long-term rather than short-term. For investors, non-current items—like long-term loans, buildings, or patents—signal commitments or resources that affect a company’s long-range financial health and liquidity, similar to planning for a mortgage rather than a monthly bill.

loan-level database technical

A loan-level database is a detailed record of each individual loan within a portfolio or securitized pool, listing attributes like original balance, remaining balance, interest rate, repayment history, and borrower credit indicators. Think of it as a car’s full service log for every loan: it lets investors see how each asset is behaving instead of relying on summary figures. That visibility helps investors judge risk, value securities more accurately, detect trends, and test what-if scenarios.

ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ICE Mortgage Technology, a neutral provider of a robust end-to-end mortgage platform and part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), today released the November 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

“While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn’t post until early December,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Overall performance was in line with what historical patterns would suggest. That said, December data will be important to watch to confirm how quickly borrowers recover from this temporary uptick.”

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Delinquencies rose: The number of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 from October to 2.3 million in November, pushing the national delinquency rate to 3.85% — the highest level in over four years.

• Inflow of newly delinquent borrowers: 609,000 borrowers who were current on payments in October became delinquent in November, marking the largest single-month inflow since May 2020. Rolls from 30- to 60-day and 60- to 90-day delinquency bands also increased sharply.

• Delinquencies aligned with historical calendar effects: November’s delinquency rate increase was in line with prior years when the month ended on a Sunday, which last occurred in 2014 (+61 bps), 2008 (+112 bps), and 2003 (+57 bps) — all of which exceeded this year’s 50 basis point increase.

• Prepayments declined: After reaching a 3.5-year high in October, prepayment activity retreated in November, falling 18% month over month.

• Foreclosure activity mixed: Foreclosure activity dipped in November due to seasonal and calendar effects. However, foreclosure starts (+25%), sales (+25%) and active foreclosure volumes (+21%) all remain well above last year’s levels.

Data as of November 30, 2025
Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.85%
Month-over-month change: 15.00%
Year-over-year change: 2.79%

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.41%
Month-over-month change: 0.27%
Year-over-year change: 20.56%

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 26,000
Month-over-month change -31.50%
Year-over-year change: 24.77%

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.83%
Month-over-month change: -17.95%
Year-over-year change: 30.55%

Foreclosure sales: 6,700
Month-over-month change: -13.87%
Year-over-year change: 24.52%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 2,115,000
Month-over-month change: 274,000
Year-over-year change: 87,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 530,000
Month-over-month change: 54,000
Year-over-year change: 18,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 226,000
Month-over-month change: 0
Year-over-year change: 41,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,341,000
Month-over-month change: 275,000
Year-over-year change: 129,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
Louisiana:	8.75%
Mississippi:	8.74%
Alabama:	6.59%
Arkansas:	6.17%
Indiana:	6.02%
Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage
California:	2.47%
Colorado:	2.42%
Montana:	2.40%
Idaho:	2.29%
Washington:	2.28%
Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage
Mississippi:	2.27%
Louisiana:	2.11%
Alabama:	1.70%
Arkansas:	1.54%
Indiana:	1.45%
Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Florida:	-7.07%
South Carolina:	-4.72%
Hawaii:	-3.17%
New York:	-1.99%
North Carolina:	-0.90%
Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage
Maryland:	16.40%
Utah:	14.28%
District of Colombia:	14.07%
Arizona:	11.94%
Arkansas:	11.32%

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:

1. Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.
2. All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.

The next ICE Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports on February 2, 2026.

For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.

About Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.

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Category: Mortgage Technology

Source: Intercontinental Exchange

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Source: Intercontinental Exchange