ITAÚ UNIBANCO - Material Fact: Guidance 2026
Rhea-AI Summary
Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) published its 2026 guidance, based on an adjusted 2025 income statement, with ranges for key metrics including credit portfolio growth, financial margins, cost of credit, non-interest expenses and effective tax rate.
Highlights include total credit portfolio growth guidance of 5.5%–9.5%, Brazil portfolio 6.5%–10.5%, cost of credit R$38.5bn–R$43.5bn, and an assumed cost of equity around 15% p.a..
Positive
- Total credit portfolio growth guided at 5.5%–9.5% for 2026
- Brazil credit portfolio growth guided at 6.5%–10.5% for 2026
- Financial margin with clients guided to grow 5.0%–9.0%
Negative
- Cost of credit guidance of R$38.5bn–R$43.5bn may pressure profitability
- Non-interest expenses guidance growth of 1.5%–5.5% could limit operating leverage
- Effective tax rate guidance between 29.5% and 32.5% increases net tax burden
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
Before the 2026 guidance release, ITUB was down 3.41% while key banking peers were mixed: DB at -0.5%, but MFG, PNC, TFC, and USB showed modest gains between 0.32% and 1.1%, pointing to a stock-specific move rather than a broad sector reaction.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 03 | Results meeting invite | Neutral | +1.0% | Announcement of interactive meeting to present 4Q25 results with management. |
| Jan 26 | Results meeting invite | Neutral | +1.2% | Scheduling details for 4Q25 interactive results presentation and Q&A session. |
| Jan 13 | Results meeting invite | Neutral | -1.2% | Notice of February 5, 2026 4Q25 results meetings and webcast registration. |
| Dec 18 | Bonus share issue | Positive | +0.1% | Board approval of 3% bonus shares via capitalization of revenue reserves. |
| Nov 27 | Dividends and IoC | Positive | +1.8% | Large cash distributions and cancellation of treasury shares to return capital. |
Recent news has focused on shareholder returns and meeting invitations, with generally modest positive price reactions following capital return announcements.
Over the last few months, Itaú Unibanco’s news flow has centered on shareholder engagement and capital returns. Bonus shares and large dividend/interest-on-capital distributions in Nov–Dec 2025 were followed by small positive moves. Multiple 4Q25 interactive-meeting invitations in Jan–Feb 2026 produced low‑single‑digit price changes. The new 2026 guidance now adds a forward-looking profitability and growth framework on top of this capital-return narrative.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement provides Itaú Unibanco’s 2026 projections, framing expectations for credit growth, client and market margins, cost of credit, and an effective tax rate range of 29.5%–32.5%. Management also cites a cost of equity of about 15% p.a.. Set against recent capital-return actions and policy disclosures, the guidance helps investors gauge how growth, risk costs, and taxation may shape future profitability under varying economic conditions.
Key Terms
effective tax rate financial
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
SÃO PAULO, Feb. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. ("Itaú Unibanco" or "Company"), in compliance with the provisions of Article 157, paragraph 4 of Law No. 6,404/76 and Resolution No. 44/21 of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), informs its stockholders and the market in general that it released as of this date its projections for the year 2026 in accordance with item 3 ("Projections") of the Reference Form.
2026 guidance considers the 2025 adjusted income statement as a starting point. The adjustment details are available at the Management Discussion & Analysis report ("MD&A", page 28) and at the fourth quarter of 2025 earnings presentation (page16). The 2025 Adjusted Income Statement spreadsheet is available for download at the Investors Relations website. Click here to access it.
2026 Guidance | |
Total credit portfolio¹ | Growth between |
Financial margin with clients | Growth between |
Financial margin with the market | Between |
Cost of credit² | Between |
Commissions and fees and results from insurance operations³ | Growth between |
Non-interest expenses | Growth between |
Effective tax rate | Between |
(1) Includes financial guarantees provided and private securities; (2) Composed of expected loss expenses, discounts granted and recovery of loans written off as losses; (3) Commissions and fees (+) income from insurance, pension plan and premium bonds operations (-) expenses for claims (-) insurance, pension plan and premium bonds selling expenses. | |
In addition, the company considers cost of equity of around
Information on business outlook, projections, and operational and financial goals are solely forecasts, based on management's current expectation in relation to the future of Itaú Unibanco. These expectations are highly dependent on market conditions, the country's economic performance, of the sector and the international markets. Therefore, our effective results and performance may differ from those forecasted in this prospective information.
Gustavo Lopes Rodrigues
Investor Relations Officer
Itaú Unibanco – Comunicação Corporativa
(11) 5019-8880 / 8881
imprensa@itau-unibanco.com.br
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SOURCE Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
FAQ
What credit portfolio growth did Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) guide for 2026?
What is Itaú Unibanco's (ITUB) guidance for cost of credit in 2026?
How did Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) forecast financial margin categories for 2026?
What effective tax rate did Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) include in its 2026 guidance?
What cost of equity did Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) use for business management in 2026?
