Biglari Capital: 18% decline in Jack in the Box Share Price after Q1 Earnings

Rhea-AI Summary

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News Market Reaction – JACK

-7.44% 1.8x vol

42 alerts

-7.44% News Effect

-5.4% Trough in 3 hr 28 min

-$26M Valuation Impact

$329M Market Cap

1.8x Rel. Volume

On the day this news was published, JACK declined 7.44%, reflecting a notable negative market reaction. Argus tracked a trough of -5.4% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 42 alerts that day, indicating elevated trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $26M from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $329M at that time. Trading volume was above average at 1.8x the daily average, suggesting increased trading activity.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Ownership stake: 9.86% Same-store sales decline: 6.7% Adj. EBITDA decline: 23% +5 more

8 metrics

Ownership stake 9.86% Biglari Capital’s reported stake in JACK

Same-store sales decline 6.7% Systemwide same-store sales change in Q1 FY2026

Adj. EBITDA decline 23% Year-over-year adjusted EBITDA change in Q1 FY2026

Adj. EBITDA margin 19.5% Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin, down 400 bps year over year

EPS from continuing ops $0.75 Q1 FY2026 EPS from continuing operations, down 54% year over year

Post-earnings price move 18% decline Share price move from Feb. 18, 2026 to Feb. 19, 2026

Value loss since 2009 Over $800 million Shareholder market value loss since Goebel joined the board

Goebel compensation since 2009 Over $3.7 million Total compensation cited for David Goebel since joining the board

Market Reality Check

Price: $16.80 Vol: Volume 1,710,228 is 3.37x...

high vol

$16.80 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,710,228 is 3.37x the 20-day average of 507,160, indicating heavy trading interest. high

Technical Price at 18.02 is trading below the 200-day moving average of 19.75 and well under the 41.09 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

While JACK fell 18.13%, key restaurant peers like DIN, LOCO, NATH, PTLO, and RIC...

While JACK fell 18.13%, key restaurant peers like DIN, LOCO, NATH, PTLO, and RICK all showed small positive moves (up between 0.3% and 1.5%), underscoring a stock-specific reaction rather than a sector downturn.

Common Catalyst One peer, DIN, had a dividend-related headline, but no broad restaurant-sector news theme matched JACK’s sharp decline.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Feb 19 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 19	Product launch	Positive	-16.0%	Nationwide launch of matcha beverage platform across approximately 2,125 restaurants.
Feb 18	Earnings release	Negative	+3.1%	Q1 2026 results with 6.7% same-store sales decline and lower revenue, EPS, EBITDA.
Feb 10	Product relaunch	Positive	+1.1%	Return of Hot Mess Burger as limited-time 75th anniversary item nationwide.
Feb 10	Proxy campaign	Negative	-4.5%	Biglari Capital letter urging vote against Chairman David Goebel at annual meeting.
Feb 10	Proxy correction	Negative	-4.5%	Corrected Biglari release reiterating campaign to vote AGAINST Chairman Goebel.

Pattern Detected

Product and proxy campaign news have often led to selling, while the recent weak earnings headline briefly saw a positive price reaction, indicating mixed alignment between news tone and price moves.

Recent Company History

Over recent weeks, JACK has mixed news flow: product launches like the nationwide matcha lineup and the Hot Mess Burger revival, alongside weak Q1 2026 earnings and an ongoing Biglari-led campaign against Chairman David Goebel. The matcha launch on Feb 19 coincided with a -15.97% move, and earlier Biglari proxy communications on Feb 10 aligned with declines. Earnings on Feb 18 brought weaker fundamentals but a short-term price gain, contrasting with the subsequent sharp selloff highlighted in today’s article.

Market Pulse Summary

The stock moved -7.4% in the session following this news. A negative reaction despite the activist f...

Analysis

The stock moved -7.4% in the session following this news. A negative reaction despite the activist framing fits a pattern where news highlighting weak fundamentals and governance disputes has often coincided with selling. The article reiterates a 6.7% same-store sales decline, margin compression, and a prior 18% post-earnings price drop, reinforcing concerns already visible in recent 10‑Q and 8‑K filings. Such overlaps between deteriorating metrics and public proxy battles can contribute to sustained downside pressure.

Key Terms

same-store sales, adjusted ebitda, eps, bps, +1 more

5 terms

same-store sales financial

"Same-store sales declined 6.7% systemwide, a sharp deterioration..."

Same-store sales measure the revenue generated by stores that have been open for a certain period, typically a year, comparing their sales over different time frames. It helps assess whether a business is growing due to increased customer activity at existing locations rather than new stores. For investors, this figure indicates the health and performance of a company's core operations, independent of expansion efforts.

adjusted ebitda financial

"Adjusted EBITDA declined approx. 23% year over year; and the adjusted EBITDA margin..."

Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.

eps financial

"EPS from continuing operations fell to $0.75 — a decline of 54%..."

Earnings per share (EPS) measures how much profit a company makes for each outstanding share of its stock by dividing the company’s profit after expenses by the number of shares. It matters to investors because it shows how much of the company’s “pie” each share represents—higher EPS usually signals greater profitability per share, helps compare companies of different sizes, and influences stock valuations and investor decisions.

bps financial

"adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.5%, down 400 bps from the comparable period..."

bps stands for "basis points," a unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). Investors and analysts use bps to describe small changes in interest rates, yields, fees, or margins without confusing decimals — for example, a 50 bps move means a 0.50% change. Using bps makes it easier to compare and communicate tiny but meaningful shifts that can significantly affect bond prices, loan costs, or investment returns.

proxy solicitation regulatory

"Cost of proxy solicitation by JACK according to the Company's SEC filings"

Proxy solicitation is the process of asking shareholders for permission to vote their shares on corporate matters, usually by sending voting forms or requests by mail, email or phone. Investors should watch proxy solicitations because they signal attempts to change control, influence board elections or approve big deals — like neighbors organizing votes on a shared building project — and the outcome can materially affect a company’s strategy and stock value.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Continued Deterioration of JACK's Share Price and Operating Metrics Further Warrants Voting Against
the Election of David Goebel

SAN ANTONIO, Feb. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Biglari Capital Corp. ("Biglari Capital"), the largest shareholder of Jack in the Box Inc. (NasdaqGS: JACK) with a 9.86% ownership stake, today issued the following statement:

Disastrous Quarterly Results Confirm the Need for Urgent Action 

For any shareholder still weighing whether Chairman Goebel's continued presence poses a real risk, JACK's first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings provide the answer — in case the last 17 years were not convincing enough. The results are terrible by any measure:

• Same-store sales declined 6.7% systemwide, a sharp deterioration from the 0.4% gain in the same period last year;
  
  
• Adjusted EBITDA declined approx. 23% year over year; and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.5%, down 400 bps from the comparable period last year;
  
  
• EPS from continuing operations fell to $0.75 — a decline of 54% from the same period last year.

JACK's share price fell another 18% following the earnings announcement¹.

We Believe JACK's Board Is Incapable of Shifting Direction as Long as David Goebel Maintains Board Influence

We firmly believe these latest results are a direct consequence of the Board's continued reliance on Mr. Goebel, whose tenure has already led to massive shareholder value destruction, declining profitability, and an increased risk of financial insolvency.  

Since Mr. Goebel joined JACK's board in 2009²:

• Shareholders have lost over $800 million in market value;
• Meanwhile, Mr. Goebel has collected over $3.7 million in total compensation.

The value destruction is even higher since Mr. Goebel became chairman of the board in June 2020³:

• Shareholders have lost over $1.2 billion in market value;
• Meanwhile, Mr. Goebel has collected over $1.8 million in total compensation.

Given Mr. Goebel's disastrous performance, no true owner would approve of spending $5 million⁴ to defend his failed leadership and directorship. 

One more year of Mr. Goebel's leadership could cause irreparable harm. 

The latest earnings report is an ominous warning sign for JACK and compelling proof of why JACK needs to move away from Mr. Goebel's influence now. 

Today's share price is all the evidence that shareholders need to vote AGAINST Mr. Goebel, as waiting another year might just be too late. 

We urge ALL shareholders to vote AGAINST the re-election of 
David Goebel at the upcoming annual meeting.

If you have already voted your shares, you can still change your vote. Only your last dated vote counts.

Contact: info@saratogaproxy.com
                www.saratogaproxy.com/JACK

¹Source: FactSet. Based on change in share price from Feb. 18, 2026 to Feb. 19, 2026
²Source: Company SEC filings. FactSet, Change in market value from Dec. 16, 2008 to Feb. 18, 2026
³Source: Company SEC filings. FactSet, Change in market value from Jun. 15, 2020 to Feb. 18, 2026
⁴Source: Cost of proxy solicitation by JACK according to the Company's SEC filings

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biglari-capital-18-decline-in-jack-in-the-box-share-price-after-q1-earnings-302693540.html

SOURCE Biglari Capital Corp.