Mosaic Issues Market Update And Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2025 Sales Results
Rhea-AI Summary
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) provided a market update and preliminary Q4 2025 results on January 16, 2026. North America phosphate shipments were estimated down ~20% year‑over‑year in Q4. Mosaic reported Q4 phosphate sales ~1.3M tonnes and Q4 potash sales ~2.2M tonnes, with full‑year sales ~9.0M tonnes (flat YoY). Weaker fall applications, early winter weather and affordability pressures drove an inventory build and weaker cash flow. Brazil volumes missed expectations amid credit constraints and increased low‑analysis phosphate imports from China. Mosaic expects a more constructive 2026 as growers replenish nutrients, Chinese phosphate export restrictions persist through at least H1 2026, and prices have begun to respond.
Full Q4 2025 earnings will be released Feb 24, 2026; a conference call is scheduled Feb 25, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Positive
- Phosphate sales of approximately 1.3 million tonnes in Q4 2025
- Potash sales of approximately 2.2 million tonnes in Q4 2025
- Full‑year sales approximately 9.0 million tonnes, flat year‑over‑year
- Company cites tighter phosphate global supply due to Chinese export restrictions through at least H1 2026
Negative
- North America phosphate shipments down approximately 20% in Q4 2025 versus year ago
- Q4 cash flow pressured by lower sales and resulting inventory build
- Brazil sales volumes fell meaningfully short of expectations due to credit constraints and import competition
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, MOS declined 4.46%, reflecting a moderate negative market reaction. Argus tracked a trough of -3.6% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 15 alerts that day, indicating notable trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $409M from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $8.75B at that time.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
MOS slipped 0.22% while key peers like CF (+1.32%), NTR (+2.29%), FMC (+2.11%) and CTVA (+0.36%) were positive; only ICL was down (-0.72%), pointing to company-specific pressure rather than a broad sector move.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | Asset sale agreement | Negative | +2.2% | Sale of Mosaic Potash Carlsbad with expected non-cash Q4 2025 impairment. |
| Dec 19 | Dividend declaration | Positive | +2.2% | Board declared quarterly dividend of <b>$0.22</b> per share payable March 2026. |
| Dec 17 | Safety incident update | Negative | -0.3% | Update on employee fatality at Esterhazy K3 and planned safe resumption of operations. |
| Dec 16 | Production curtailment | Negative | -5.6% | Idling SSP production in Brazil and suspending sulfur purchases after sharp price rise. |
| Nov 17 | Dividend declaration | Positive | +0.7% | Announced <b>$0.22</b> per share dividend payable December 18, 2025. |
Price has mostly moved in the same direction as prior news (4 aligned vs 1 divergence), reacting negatively to operational setbacks and positively to capital returns.
Over the last few months, Mosaic announced Brazilian phosphate curtailments, a tragic Esterhazy incident, asset divestiture plans in Carlsbad for $30 million, and maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share. Dividend declarations on Nov 17 and Dec 19, 2025 saw modest gains, while Brazilian curtailments on Dec 16, 2025 coincided with a -5.63% move. Today’s weak Q4 2025 volume update and soft fertilizer demand fits into this recent pattern of operational headwinds and portfolio adjustments.
Regulatory & Risk Context
Mosaic has an effective automatic shelf registration on Form S-3ASR filed on 2025-11-07, allowing it and selling stockholders to offer common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants via future prospectus supplements. The shelf has already supported at least 2 debt offerings via 424B5 filings in November 2025.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement detailed a very weak Q4 2025, with North American demand softness driving phosphate sales of about 1.3 million tonnes and potash at 2.2 million tonnes, and Brazil volumes falling short of expectations despite roughly 9 million tonnes for the year. Management pointed to potential record 2026 shipments if demand normalizes. Investors may track the upcoming February 24, 2026 earnings release, fertilizer shipment trends, and use of the existing automatic shelf and recent debt capacity.
Key Terms
phosphates technical
potash technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
TAMPA, FL / ACCESS Newswire / January 16, 2026 / The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) today provided an update on fertilizer markets and preliminary selected fourth quarter 2025 results.
North American fertilizer demand declined well beyond normal seasonal softness in the fourth quarter, as fall applications were weak due to sustained pressure on grower economics and were exacerbated by an early onset of winter weather that compressed the application window. The market conditions were particularly challenging for phosphates due to lower relative affordability as compared to potash. Overall North America phosphate market shipments are estimated to have been down approximately
The challenging market environment significantly impacted Mosaic fourth quarter performance with phosphate sales volumes at approximately 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales volumes at approximately 2.2 million tonnes.
In the fourth quarter, to respond to weaker demand, Mosaic adjusted its phosphate production plan and product mix, and redirected products to markets with stronger demand, resulting in production volumes that remained consistent with the prior quarter.
Challenging market conditions also weighed on cash flow with fourth quarter results pressured by lower sales and the resulting inventory build.
Brazil's fertilizer market deteriorated further in the fourth quarter, with intensifying credit constraints and heightened supplier competition, driven by an influx of lower-analysis phosphate products from China, which weighed heavily on demand and margins. As a result, Mosaic Fertilizantes' sales volumes fell meaningfully short of expectations. Full year sales volumes were approximately 9 million tonnes-flat year over year, but reflective of the broader market downturn.
Despite the extraordinarily weak fourth quarter, 2026 is positioned to be more constructive. Growers are expected to replenish nutrients removed by last year's strong crop, and additional government support payments are poised to stimulate demand for the North American spring application period. Phosphate markets are balanced to tight, a dynamic that is becoming more evident as spring demand accelerates, and as lower Chinese exports more acutely impact global markets, following that country's announcement of broader and longer-duration phosphate export restrictions that are expected to be in place through at least the first half of the year. Prices have already responded positively to global demand since the start of the year. Potash markets are balanced, and China's early contract settlement is expected to provide greater price stability and supports a positive outlook for Canpotex. Current industry expectations suggest that global phosphate and potash shipments could reach record levels in 2026. In Brazil, credit constraints persist but expanding planted acreage and strong crop yields are expected to support fertilizer demand in 2026 as growers rebuild soil nutrients, potentially setting another record for fertilizer demand in 2026. Importantly, the surge of low analysis phosphate imports from China does not appear likely to repeat itself given the export restrictions noted above.
Taken together, these factors suggest an improving outlook as the year progresses.
Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Webcast and Conference Call Information
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) plans to release full fourth quarter 2025 earnings results on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, after close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The company will issue a news wire alert when materials are publicly available on the company's website. On Wednesday, February 25, beginning 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, the company will host a conference call to discuss the results.
Conference Call Details:
Dial-in number (Toll Free): +1 877-883-0383
International Dial-in number: +1-412-902-6506
Participant Elite Entry Number: 3126947
Link to Webcast of the Conference Call:
https://investors.mosaicco.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx
A webcast of the conference call may be accessed through Mosaic's website at www.mosaicco.com/investors. An audio replay of the call will be available up to one year from the time of the earnings call.
About The Mosaic Company
The Mosaic Company is one of the world's leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Through its Mosaic Biosciences platform, the company is also advancing the next generation biological solutions to help farmers improve nutrient use efficiency and crop performance sustainably. Mosaic provides a single-source supply of phosphate, potash, and biological products for the global agriculture industry. More information on the company is available at www.mosaicco.com.
Contacts:
Investors: | Media: |
This release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected market conditions in 2026; anticipated demand for phosphate and potash; the impact of grower nutrient replenishment needs and government support programs; expected trends in Chinese fertilizer exports; anticipated pricing dynamics; expectations regarding Brazil's credit environment, planted acreage and grower economics; and management's expectations for 2026 fertilizer shipments and overall market recovery. Forward-looking statements are based on the views and assumptions of management as of the date of this release. They are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. These risks include, but are not limited to: changes in global supply and demand for crop nutrients; variations in farmer affordability, planted acreage or weather patterns; changes in international trade flows, including Chinese export policies; raw material cost volatility; geopolitical and macroeconomic developments; credit availability in key markets such as Brazil; and other risks and uncertainties described in The Mosaic Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The Mosaic Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
SOURCE: The Mosaic Company
View the original press release on ACCESS Newswire
FAQ
What preliminary Q4 2025 sales volumes did Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) report?
How much did North American phosphate shipments decline in Q4 2025 for Mosaic (MOS)?
When will Mosaic (MOS) release full Q4 2025 earnings and host the call?
What drove weaker Mosaic (MOS) results in Brazil in Q4 2025?
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