Mosaic Revises Guidance
- DAP phosphate prices revised upward to $650-670 per tonne range for Q2
- Potash sales volume guidance remains stable at 2.3-2.5M tonnes for Q2
- Bartow facility operating at target rate, expecting over 500k tonnes in Q2
- New Wales facility production expected to increase 20% in Q2
- Mosaic Fertilizantes division forecasts significantly improved Q2 performance
- Q2 phosphate sales volumes reduced to 1.5-1.6M tonnes from 1.7-1.9M tonnes
- Full-year 2025 phosphate production guidance lowered to 7.0-7.3M tonnes from 7.2-7.6M tonnes
- Extended downtime at Riverview facility due to bottleneck elimination
- Louisiana facilities faced unexpected repairs leading to extended outages
- Delayed commissioning of gypsum handling systems at New Wales facility
Insights
Mosaic's mixed guidance update shows stronger pricing but operational challenges reducing phosphate volumes while maintaining potash outlook.
Mosaic's revised guidance presents a mixed outlook with both positive and negative elements that will likely offset each other. On the positive side, the company has increased its DAP price guidance to
The concerning element is the significant reduction in phosphate sales volume guidance for Q2 2025, now 1.5-1.6 million tonnes versus the previous 1.7-1.9 million tonnes - representing a
The operational details reveal a pattern of extended maintenance issues and delayed commissioning across multiple facilities. The New Wales facility faced longer-than-expected commissioning of gypsum handling systems that limited production. Riverview facility underwent extended planned downtimes, while Louisiana facilities required additional repairs during turnaround activities.
Despite these setbacks, Mosaic maintains its 8 million tonne target run rate for U.S. phosphate assets in the second half of 2025, suggesting confidence in resolving these temporary issues. The potash segment remains stable with unchanged guidance, and Mosaic Fertilizantes is expected to show significant improvement over Q1 due to rising prices, stronger distribution margins, efficiency gains, and favorable foreign exchange movements.
The market will likely focus on whether Mosaic can execute its reliability improvements and achieve the promised production increases in Q3, particularly the
TAMPA, FL / ACCESS Newswire / June 6, 2025 / The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) today announced it revised its second quarter and 2025 outlook.
Phosphate and Potash Pricing Outlook
Phosphate price guidance moves higher: DAP prices on an FOB basis are expected to be in the
Potash prices are expected to be stable: Mine-gate MOP prices are expected to be in the range of
Phosphate and Potash Operations Outlook
Phosphate sales volumes for the second quarter of 2025 are expected to be 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, revised down from 1.7-1.9 million tonnes. 2025 full year production volume is now expected to be 7.0-7.3 million tonnes, revised down from 7.2-7.6 million tonnes.
Mosaic's Bartow phosphate facility is operating at its target rate and is expected to produce over 500,000 tonnes in the second quarter. This rate is commensurate with an annual production level above 2 million tonnes.
The New Wales phosphate facility's production level is expected to increase over
At the company's Riverview facility, Mosaic extended planned downtimes to eliminate bottlenecks, causing production to miss initial expectations. In the third quarter, Riverview is expected to achieve a run rate corresponding to annual production of 1.6 million tonnes.
At Mosaic's Louisiana facilities, during normal turnaround activity, the team discovered additional necessary repairs, resulting in extended outage periods and some lost production. In the third quarter, Louisiana is expected to perform at its target annual run rate of 1.4 million tonnes.
Mosaic has experienced improved production rates in the areas where work has been concluded at all phosphate facilities. As the remaining maintenance and reliability enhancement work will be completed in June and early July, Mosaic is increasingly confident in its production plans for the second half of the year and continues to expect operating rates to achieve the 8 million tonne target run rate across the full portfolio of U.S. phosphate assets.
In potash, second quarter sales volumes are expected to be 2.3-2.5 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous guidance. Full year 2025 production volumes guidance remains unchanged at 9.0-9.4 million tonnes.
Mosaic Fertilizantes Outlook
The outlook for Mosaic Fertilizantes remains solid, and second quarter performance is expected to be significantly better than the first quarter on rising prices, seasonally stronger distribution margins, continued operating efficiency gains, and foreign exchange tailwinds.
About The Mosaic Company
The Mosaic Company is one of the world's leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Through its Mosaic Biosciences platform, the company is also advancing the next generation biological solutions to help farmers improve nutrient use efficiency and crop performance sustainably. Mosaic provides a single-source supply of phosphate, potash, and biological products for the global agriculture industry. More information on the company is available at www.mosaicco.com.
Contacts:
Joan Tong, CFA, 863-640-0826 | Media: Ben Pratt, 813-775-4206 |
This release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability and changes in government policies in countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on economic conditions; and other risks associated with Mosaic's international operations; a material adverse change in our Ma'aden investment with respect to the financial position, performance, operations or prospects of Ma'aden; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic's decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of America or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic's operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic's processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management's current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, reduction of Mosaic's available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic's potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic's operations, including plant outages and down time, potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
SOURCE: The Mosaic Company
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