ArcelorMittal announces the publication of its fourth quarter and full year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures
Rhea-AI Summary
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) published sell-side analyst consensus for 4Q'25 and FY'25 on 3 February 2026 based on Visible Alpha aggregation of ~14-15 brokers. Consensus: 4Q'25 EBITDA $1,531m, FY'25 EBITDA $6,466m; 4Q'25 Net income $390m, FY'25 Net income $3,321m; EPS 4Q'25 $0.51, FY'25 $4.36.
The figures are third-party estimates compiled by Visible Alpha; ArcelorMittal says it did not prepare or verify the forecasts and is not responsible for individual estimates.
Positive
- Consensus FY'25 EBITDA of $6,466m provides a concrete market expectation
- Consensus FY'25 net income of $3,321m and EPS $4.36 give clear profit benchmarks
- Sell-side participation from 14 brokers increases breadth of the consensus
Negative
- Consensus derived from Visible Alpha estimates; company did not verify or prepare forecasts
- Estimates reflect third-party views and may differ materially from ArcelorMittal's actual results
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, MT gained 0.28%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
Steel peers also traded higher, with NUE up 2.82%, STLD up 4.43%, RS up 1.03%, PKX up 1.69%, and GGB up 0.93%, aligning with MT’s 4.71% gain.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 | Liberia MDA expansion | Positive | -3.3% | Long-term Liberia mining agreement supporting multi-billion expansion and higher output. |
| Jan 29 | Operational statement | Neutral | -0.5% | Company statement regarding Acciaierie d'Italia operations and situation. |
| Dec 22 | Renewables expansion | Positive | +1.0% | Announcement of 1GW India renewable projects expanding global capacity and CO2 savings. |
| Dec 16 | Insider disclosures | Neutral | -0.9% | Notification of share transactions by designated persons under EU market rules. |
| Dec 12 | Financial calendar | Neutral | +1.6% | Publication of 2026 earnings dates and AGM alongside 2024 operating statistics. |
Recent newsflow shows mostly modest price responses, with one notable divergence where a seemingly positive Liberia expansion agreement coincided with a negative move. Operational and strategic updates (renewables, financial calendar, governance disclosures) have generally seen small, directionally aligned reactions. Today’s strong move on a neutral consensus publication contrasts with these more muted historical responses, suggesting positioning and sector factors may be influential alongside the information content of this update.
Over the past months, ArcelorMittal has combined portfolio moves, growth projects and routine disclosures. A Jan 30 2026 Liberia mineral development agreement supported a planned $3.5 billion expansion but saw a -3.26% reaction. Renewable projects announced on Dec 22 2025 added 1GW and lifted capacity to 3.3GW, with a 0.96% gain. Governance and calendar updates in mid-December drew small price changes. Today’s 4Q’25/FY’25 consensus publication fits into this pattern of pre-earnings information flow.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement provides detailed 4Q’25 and FY’25 sell-side consensus figures, including EBITDA of $1,531m for 4Q and $6,466m for FY’25, net income of $390m and $3,321m, and EPS of $0.51 and $4.36. With input from 14 brokers via Visible Alpha, it sets a clear benchmark for upcoming results. Historically, ArcelorMittal news has triggered mostly modest moves, so investors may watch how actual earnings compare with these externally compiled expectations.
Key Terms
ebitda financial
sell-side analyst consensus financial
forward-looking statements regulatory
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
3 February 2026, 14:30 CET
ArcelorMittal today announces the publication of its fourth quarter and full year 2025 sell-side analyst consensus figures.
The consensus figures are based on analysts’ estimates recorded on an external web-based tool provided and managed by an independent company, Visible Alpha.
To arrive at the consensus figures below, Visible Alpha has aggregated the expectations of sell-side analysts who, to the best of our knowledge, cover ArcelorMittal on a continuous basis. This is currently a group of approximately 15 brokers. The listed sell-side analysts follow ArcelorMittal on their own initiative and ArcelorMittal is not responsible for their views. ArcelorMittal is neither involved in the collection of the information nor in the compilation of the estimates.
4Q’25 and FY’25 consensus estimates:
4Q’25 FY’25
- EBITDA ($m)
$1,531 $6,466 - Net income ($m)
$390 $3,321 - Earnings per share ($)
$0.51 $4.36
Equity analyst contributing to consensus:
Sell-side analyst participation stands at 14 brokers (i.e., those with updated estimates in Visible Alpha). The sell-side analysts who cover ArcelorMittal and whose estimates are included in the 4Q’25 and FY’25 group consensus outlined above are the following (GVC and Alphavalue included for FY’25 only):
- Alphavalue – Fabrice Farigoule
- Bank of America – Reinhardt Van Der Walt
- CITI – Ephrem Ravi, Krishan Agarwal
- Deutsche Bank – Bastian Synagowitz
- Goldman Sachs – Matt Greene
- Groupo Santander – Robert Jackson
- GVC Gaesco Valores* – Inigo Pascual
- Jefferies – Cole Hathorn
- Kepler – Boris Bourdet
- Keybanc – Phil Gibbs
- Morgan Stanley – Alain Gabriel
- Oddo – Maxime Kogge
- UBS – Andrew Jones
- Wells Fargo – Timna Tanners
Disclaimer
Estimates based on Visible Alpha consensus dated 3.2.26. The disclaimer is:
The information provided by Visible Alpha cited herein is provided “as is” and “as available” without warranty of any kind. Use of any Visible Alpha data is at a user’s own risk and Visible Alpha disclaims any liability for use of the Visible Alpha data. Although the information is obtained or compiled from reliable sources Visible Alpha neither can nor does guarantee or make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, validity, sequence, timeliness, completeness or continued availability of any information or data, including third-party content, made available herein. In no event shall Visible Alpha be liable for any decision made or action or inaction taken in reliance on any information or data, including third-party content. Visible Alpha further explicitly disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.
The consensus estimate is based on estimates, forecasts and predictions made by third party financial analysts, as described above. It is not prepared based on information provided or checked by ArcelorMittal and can only be seen as a consensus view on ArcelorMittal's results from an outside perspective. ArcelorMittal has not provided input on these forecasts, except by referring to past publicly disclosed information. ArcelorMittal does not accept any responsibility for the quality or accuracy of any individual forecast or estimate. This web page may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by ArcelorMittal or third parties. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between ArcelorMittal's actual future results, financial situation, development or performance, and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in ArcelorMittal's periodic reports available on http://corporate.arcelormittal.com/.
ENDS
About ArcelorMittal
ArcelorMittal is one of the world’s leading integrated steel and mining companies with a presence in 60 countries and primary steelmaking operations in 14 countries. It is the largest steel producer in Europe, among the largest in the Americas, and has a growing presence in Asia through its joint venture AM/NS India. ArcelorMittal sells its products to a diverse range of customers including the automotive, engineering, construction and machinery industries, and in 2024 generated revenues of
ArcelorMittal is listed on the stock exchanges of New York (MT), Amsterdam (MT), Paris (MT), Luxembourg (MT) and on the Spanish stock exchanges of Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid and Valencia (MTS).
http://corporate.arcelormittal.com/
| ArcelorMittal Investor Relations contact information | |
| General | +44 20 7543 1128 |
| Retail | +44 20 3214 2893 |
| Bonds/Credit | +33 171 921 026 |
| Bonds/Credit | +33 171 921 026 |
| ArcelorMittal Corporate Communications contact information | |
| Paul Weigh | |
| Tel: | +44 20 3214 2419 |
| press@arcelormittal.com | |
FAQ
What are the consensus 4Q'25 and FY'25 EBITDA and EPS figures for ArcelorMittal (MT)?
How many brokers contributed to the ArcelorMittal (MT) 4Q'25 and FY'25 consensus published on 3 Feb 2026?
Did ArcelorMittal (MT) prepare or verify the Visible Alpha consensus estimates dated 3.2.26?
How should investors treat the Visible Alpha consensus figures for ArcelorMittal (MT)?
Where do the Visible Alpha consensus numbers for ArcelorMittal (MT) come from and when were they recorded?
